The Spectacle Blog

Nate Silver: Senate Could Go to Republicans in 2014

By on 7.15.13 | 3:15PM

Is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell part of our future? It might be, if Nate Silver is correct in his Senate race predicitions for 2014.

Silver, who is well known for correctly predicting the outcome of the 2012 elections, thinks that the race for control of the Senate is now a toss-up and could even go to the Republicans:

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

Silver uses statistical analysis to predict election outcomes. Given his previous successes, his predictions deserve to be taken seriously. While the 2014 election is more than a year away, Silver's forecasts should give some hope to Republicans, who are expected to keep control of the House and who have not secured a majority in both houses of Congress since 2006.

We'll see.

Send to Kindle

Like this Article

Print this Article

Print Article