Source who is my new Dr. Strangelove argues effectively that strategic bombers with gravity bunker buster bombs can sufficiently damage Iran's nuclear weapons fuel cycle facilities in one night to end the program.
Argues that it is not necessary to destroy all the facilities, just key nodes.
When asked about the day after, source is matter of fact that the Iranians will respond in some of seventeen ways, including closing the Hormuz Strait, and that any one of the seventeen ways will be enough to paralyze worldwide energy markets.
I asked if the one night of bombing will begin several years of nightmares.
Source counters that the oil shock will be severe but not indefinite: that Western economies will recover; that Iran's economy will not recover and surrender will follow eventually.
In sum, bombing Iran to end the nuke program is not the end of the markets, but a shadow will fall over your kitchen table for a few quarters.
Source argues that the alternative, permitting Iran to produce and mount a nuclear weapon force in due time, will lead to much worse than an oil shock.
Okay. I begin to see the unseeable.