The Spectacle Blog

1994 vs. Today

By on 10.31.06 | 7:29AM

Charlie Cook yesterday reported that there "is no ebb in the wave" for Democrats, and he predicted losses of 20 to 35 seats for the GOP in the House. He said Republicans should expect to lose, most likely, five or six Senate seats.

The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.

In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.

This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list.

One huge issue that Cook is ignoring, that was a non-factor in 1994: national security. That could make up the difference for Republicans.
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