The Spectacle Blog

Gallup Challenges Conventional ‘Anti-Romney’ Wisdom

By on 3.20.12 | 2:01PM

In a short video rejecting certain "conventional wisdom," the Gallup organization makes a few interesting arguments based on poll results.

One is that there is not (at least not yet) a connection between high gas prices and President Obama's approval rating.

More interesting is Gallup's data suggesting that among Newt Gingrich's supporters, their "second choice" is split roughly evenly between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. If correct, a Gingrich exit from the presidential race would therefore not benefit Santorum (and thus harm Romney) nearly to the extent that conventional wisdom of Gingrich representing primarily another "anti-Romney" choice would imply.

If Gingrich's goal (as he's stated it) is to prevent Romney from getting the nomination, then his staying in the race is indeed the right strategy, even if not very likely to succeed. If it is true that Gingrich's exit would benefit Romney nearly as much as it would benefit Santorum, then the addition of those votes and delegates to Romney over the course of the next few months would likely give Romney the needed 1144 delegates.

Separate from the question of whether Newt's ego would ever allow him to get out of the race, his current insistence on staying in for the duration is, based on the Gallup numbers, the most rational way to attempt to deny Mitt Romney the nomination since his exit could not propel Santorum to outright victory during the primary season.

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