The Spectacle Blog

Weekend Political Wrap-Up

By on 3.4.12 | 3:51PM

1. At a D.C. memorial service/celebration for Andrew Breitbart last night, the conservative media entrepreneur's associates said they planned to release a video that will make President Obama's team very unhappy. No word on the details yet, but even in death Breitbart can vex the left.

2. Conservative insurgents have tended to beat establishment favorites in Washington state's Republican caucuses. It was the only state Pat Robertson won on Super Tuesday in 1988, for example. So Mitt Romney's convincing win there -- the straw poll is technically nonbinding, but the caucus process does have some influence on how delegates will ultimately be allocated -- is a testament to his organizational acumen. It also reminds us that Romney isn't going to cede the caucuses to Ron Paul the way Hillary Clinton largely left them to Barack Obama in 2008.

3. According to at least one count, Paul has surpassed Newt Gingrich in total delegates. (Some estimates project fewer delegates for Paul from places like Minnesota; the Paul campaign's own unofficial delegate tally runs much higher.) Gingrich enters Super Tuesday needing to do something to justify even staying in the race. Georgia appears likely to be his first win since South Carolina, and the former House speaker has had some bad showings. Most recently, he finished last in both Michigan and Washington state.

4. Ohio and Tennessee are must-win states for Rick Santorum, at least if the former Pennsylvania senator is going to seriously contend for the nomination rather than just be a safety valve for conservative discontent with Romney. Santorum still leads in both states, but by shrinking margins. If the states get too close, you have to wonder if Romney's superior ground game could be the tie-breaker.

5. Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) reelection campaign is looking up. Two recent polls have him decisively ahead of likely Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, with particularly strong numbers among independents. Brown knows that electorate and could get another assist if Romney wins the nomination, because he will lose Massachusetts less badly than the other Republican presidential candidates. I wonder if Warren will regret her agreement with Brown on super PACs. Since Brown has disappointed many of the national Tea Party groups who supported him in 2010, Warren was likely to get a lot more outside support.

6. Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) is about as good a candidate as Nebraska Democrats could hope for in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). But let's face it: he's to Nelson's left, he hasn't run for office there since the 1990s, he's spent recent years living in New York, and it's a presidential election year. Republicans are still very likely to pick up that seat.

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