As we thank Anthony Weiner for the weeks of entertainment and wish him the best in getting his life back in order, we turn now to what happens to the seat he is resigning from.
"If Democrats could win NY-26," argues Dave Weigel, "Republicans could win NY-9." On paper this looks right. But a few caveats: Part of the reason that Democrats were able to snatch NY-26 was the ineptitude of the New York GOP, which is if anything weaker in New York City. Outside groups might pick up some of the organizational slack, but there is the small matter of recruiting a sufficiently strong candidate, which may or may not be possible. And if a Republican can be elected, it's quite probable that Democrats will redraw the map to his disadvantage during redistricting. All that said, scandals that end in resignation do have a way of reshuffling the political deck, and the scenario Dave floats, in which groups like American Crossroads and the Emergency Committee for Israel make a play in Brooklyn and Queens, would certainly be interesting to watch.
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