The Spectacle Blog

Olmert Falling

By on 1.20.06 | 1:14PM

Trusted source from Israeli politics indicates that support for Olmert and the Kadima Party is soft and likely to fall away over the next weeks to the March election. Olmert polls about 40 plus seats right now, which would give Kadima the power hand to form a coalition in the Knesset. However, this number includes all the Russians, who will reconsider, and a generous count of the Labor and Likud types who are still persuaded that the now absent Sharon and now decayed Peres represent the comfortable future. These shaky votes will drift.

Also, Olmert will now be tested by the witches of the terror gangs, and he will struggle to answer. Olmert is by training a politician: he chooses between sides and shines. We call it triangulation. It does not work when faced with the bombers. Hamas and Al Aqsa and Islamic Jihad regard Olmert as weak and a U.S. pet. HizbAllah does not fear Olmert, as they know he will not send the tanks north again to Lebanon. And the Egyptians regard Olmert as an acting mayor.

Israel is less resolute now than at any period since 9/11. The jihadists, funded and directed by Tehran, know it. They will bomb in waves. Israel will pause to argue with itself, and this will look like retreat. And Tehran knows that as Israel goes, so goes the power of the U.S. in the region.

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