Since Quin has started it, I might as well take the plunge too. I think the Republicans will hold all Republican-held Senate seats, with Alaska being the closest. But my prediction is that Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign will underperform the poll numbers to the benefit of GOP nominee Joe Miller. Republicans will pick up Senate seats in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, and Illinois, in order of likelihood. (Though I have only put Washington in the win column in the last 24 hours.)
That's a net pickup of 9, for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden's tie-breaking vote allowing Democrats to organize the Senate. Several of these races will be too close to call on election night (some might even be the subject of litigation). Consequently, I am also predicting that Republican campaigns in California, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Delaware will fall short. At the end of the night, the Republicans will have a majority in the House, picking up 60 seats, and will also have most state governorships.
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