In a very astute column, Reid Wilson provides four excellent reasons why Democrats are still at least an even-money bet to hold onto the House of Representatives. What it boils down to is that all three major party committees on the Republican side have substantially underperformed. They haven't raised enough money. They have spent way too much money. They have wasted money picking fights in primaries rather than saving it for the general election. And of course they have paid for the care, feeding, preening and pampering of Michael Steele.
I've been saying exactly the same things for weeks that Wilson said (minus his point about "modeling," which hadn't occurred to me). I've always added one more element Wilson doesn't touch on: The thoroughly corrupt voting section of the thoroughly corrupt Obama-Holder Justice Department. I think Republican candidates will need to outperform Democrats among real, live voters by at least half a percentage point, and probably three-fourths of a point, in every single race in the country if they want to actually be allowed to take their seats. Otherwise, the dead voters, pets registered as voters, and phantom voters (such as those who figure out who hasn't voted yet and pretend to be those people, especially for military stationed abroad whose votes haven't been ensured) will throw close races to the Dems. Look for tons of trumped up "voter intimidation" charges against conservatives, while lefties get away with blatant, actual intimidation (as in the Black Panther case). Look for widespread obstruction of efforts by GOP poll watchers to ensure that no vote fraud occurs -- i.e., look for vote fraud that actually is being spotted to STILL be allowed. Look for military votes not to be counted. Look for spurious challenges to right-leaning votes. This is a DoJ that refused to make Missouri abide by the part of the Motor Voter law that requires states to eliminate dead and otherwise inelgible voters from their rolls. This is a DoJ that told a black-majority North Carolina town that it could not choose to hold non-partisan elections because non-partisan elections would not result in the election of enough black Democrats. (In other words, the black majority of the town is too stupid, according to DoJ, to know how to protect its own best interests.) And so on. As in the gubernatorial election in Washington State in 2004 and the Senate race in Minnesota in 2008, every single vote dispute will be decided by DoJ and/or malleable judges in favor of the Dems, regardless of what is fair, right, or lawful.
If I remember correctly, the GOP sweep in 1994 included victories in a whole slew of notably close races. What I'm saying is that almost all the close races will be credited as Dem victories this time, even if only by both hook and definitely crook. Combine that with the GOP's pathetic get-out-the-vote organization this year (especially when compared to what they had in 2004); and with the extreme bias-bordering-on-outright-corruption of an establishment media that will aid and abet every cheap-shot attempt to slime conservative candidates and make them unattractive to "moderates" and "independents" -- plus the fact that so many conservative candidates this time are political neophytes and thus more apt to make deadly political miscues -- and what you have in massive combination of all these things is a huge counterweight to the otherwise overwhelming conservative, anti-establishment, anti-Washington, anti-Obama trend sweeping the country.
Of course I'm not suggesting that Republicans won't pick up dozens of net seats in the House (and at least five net seats, maybe more, in the Senate) -- but I AM saying that getting to 40 (and 10 in the Senate) is still quite a tall order, and that it will be a close-run thing for the majority.
(There -- I've just cost myself some money by encapsulating what could have been a separate, paid column into an unpaid blog entry. Oh, well.....)
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