After Democrat Richard Blumenthal was caught making false claims about serving in Vietnam, the Cook Political Report now lists the Connecticut Senate race -- considered safely Democratic once Blumenthal took over for unpopular incumbent Chris Dodd -- as a "toss up." While I think this may be premature, there is something to the reasoning:
Blumenthal promised to stay in the race and Democrats think that the campaign will move quickly beyond this incident. We are not so sure. There is now a very long and deep scratch in Blumenthal's Teflon, and the tougher the Teflon, the more damaging the scratch. Voters are now likely to see Blumenthal as more of a typical politician than he's ever been....
Our early guess is that Blumenthal does survive, but that he is no longer the heavy favorite he was just 24 hours ago, and Republicans will now play on a more level playing field. As such, the race is moving to the Toss Up column.
My view is that the more people scrutinize Blumenthal, the more they will find things to dislike.
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