In what will likely be the last public poll before tomorrow's Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, Public Policy Polling shows Rand Paul with a commanding lead over Trey Grayson. Paul beats Grayson by 52 percent to 34 percent among likely voters. Only 7 percent are still undecided and there are three minor candidates in the low single digits.
Paul trounces Grayson among the 41 percent who are dissatisifed with the state of the Republican Party, winning 59 percent to 28 percent. Voters who think the GOP is too liberal break for Paul by 71 percent to 21 percent. Republicans who are satisfied with the party's direction only support Grayson by a narrow 47 percent to 45 percent. Paul actually beats Grayson among Republicans who don't think the GOP is too liberal, albeit by the much narrower 45-41. Interestingly, Paul has reached far beyond his father's base (only 8 percent support Ron Paul for president in 2012, putting him in fifth place) and isn't affected by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's enduring popularity.
Grayson has only two slim hopes: One is the fact I'm reliably informed that both campaigns' internals show the race closer than the public polling does. The second is that he, unlike Paul, has a proven ground game. But Grayson hasn't led in any reputable poll in months and the race doesn't look close enough for a smooth get-out-the-vote operation to influence.
"Rand Paul's remarkable success is one of the biggest stories of the 2010 election cycleso far," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, in a release accompanying the poll results. "It's a clear sign ofunhappiness within the Republican Party and should have establishment candidate facing primaries nationwide a little nervous about their prospects."
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