The Spectacle Blog

Zogby’s Year-End Polling

By on 12.14.05 | 2:54PM

Has some very interesting numbers. The new poll samples just over 1000 Americans, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The numbers are worrisome for Republicans. The generic 2006 Congressional election question has Democrats favored over Republicans by 48 to 40 percent. When you break that down into Bush's 2004 red and blue states, the reds break for the GOP by 46 to 43 percent, a tiny edge compared to 54 to 34 percent for the Democrats in blue states.

Zogby also finds low numbers for Bush: a 38 percent job approval rating. But that's not all. If Bush endorses a candidate, 40 percent of voters are less likely to vote for that candidate, compared to about 30 percent more likely. Zogby has those numbers for a variety of endorsers: Vice President Cheney: 26 percent more likely, 45 percent less likely; Hillary: 36 percent more likely, 39 percent less likely; Bill Clinton: 42 percent more likely, 36 percent less likely. The big one is John McCain: an endorsement from him would make 54 percent more likely to vote for his guy, and only 18 percent less likely.

There is some good news. Contrary to widespread claims, the public still supports the war in Iraq, by 54 percent to 46 percent. On the question whether the war in Iraq "has been worth it," 49 percent agree, 49 percent disagree. Only 13.3 percent support the Murtha option, an immediate pullout. Fifty-four percent say we'll win in Iraq, as well as win the war on terror.

Some other notable job approval ratings: Condi Rice, 53 percent; Don Rumsfeld, 34 percent; Harry Reid, 13 percent; Nancy Pelosi, 20 percent; Bill Frist, 21 percent; and Speaker Hastert, 20 percent.

2008 presidential matchups: Hillary vs. McCain, 37-52; Hillary vs. Condi, 46-47; Kerry vs. McCain, 34-55; Kerry vs. Condi, 45-48; Mark Warner vs. McCain, 26-58; and Warner vs. Condi, 32-50.

This poll cannot be easily written off as unbalanced, at least by party: it is evenly split at 37 percent each between Republicans and Democrats.

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