I typically try to err on the cynical side. It prevents disappointment. Sometimes I go out on a limb, like I did on Alan Keyes*, and get knocked dramatically back to earth, but generally I look for worst case scenarios.
Strangely enough, I'm feeling fairly Pollyanna in the midst of all the gloom and doom over Rep. Foley's moral malfunction. The Dems released this one way too early to be decisive. We're still a month away from the election. The news cycle has time for about five to ten good turns before then.
The idea of an October surprise is passe'. It's so seventies. The Foley thing is not a deathstrike. It's just a shot by the Dem fundraisers to keep the donors in the game and cut down the GOP advantage.
I'd be looking for something bigger from either Team GOP or Team Dem a few days after Halloween. There's an eternity to go. The fourth quarter has just started.