Best signals source identifies the last week of noise in Baghdad as the turning point. Tehran plays checkmate.
Also, indicates a bloody minded war council in West Beirut with Nasrallah of HizbAllah, Meshal of Hamas, and ops from Mugniyah, Zarqawi and IJ on the West Bank (subset of AlAqsa).
Also, note that the Iran naval exercises in the Gulf are at two reinforced brigade strength, and they are practicing ship seizures and beach landings.
It's November. It's 1941. Sauve qui peut.
There's worse. Am not permitted to detail. Am open source only, am not crossing the line.
War warning, part 3. See the Telegraph report above. This is not idle gaming. US strategic position is flabby. National security apparatus is unhorsed.