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The Spectacle Blog
The great Tim Carney, the Washington Examiner’s muckraking Mozart, lays into Virginia Governor and alleged conservative Bob McDonnell for supporting a new raft of tax increases and infrastructure improvements:
The transportation bill McDonnell supports would hike sales taxes to 6 percent in Northern Virginia (up from 5 percent), rejigger the gas tax and index it to inflation and increase taxes on home sales. This tax revenue, along with more money from the general fund, will provide what the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce calls a “sustainable fund” for transportation, with the hope of alleviating traffic congestion.
But even if the plan fleeces ordinary people, they stand to spend less time in traffic. Right?
If you think all this new pavement will mean less congestion, consider these other supporters of McDonnell’s plan. The Virginia Automobile Dealers Association signed on, presumably expecting more people to buy cars if there are more lanes. The Home Builders Association and the Virginia Association of Realtors back the bill, too, foreseeing more homes in Loudoun and Fauquier counties. So you get more lanes, but also more commuters and more drivers. The result could be the same amount of congestion.
Carney’s suspicion is well-grounded in economic theory. The time we expect to spend in traffic is the price we are willing to pay for the convenience of using the roads at a given point each day. Increased capacity may simply mean more time spent on the road as more people use it. The previous equilibrium may be reached again.
As someone formally trained in economics, it is my vocational duty to disclose an even more dismal possibility: Braess’ paradox. If capacity is added to a network, such as a road system, the actions of the self-interested individuals using it may, under certain circumstances, actually increase transit times. As with any such economic theory, there is a ceteris paribus assumption: All else is assumed to remain equal. No construction of additional housing or increase in the user base. And both can be expected thanks to this plan.
To be clear, the mathematics behind this theory are far over my head, and estimating the risk in this case without specific information is virtually impossible. But real-world cases of this phenomenon have been observed. Virginians must steel themselves against the prosaic insult of injury compounded upon injury.
View all comments (6) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Luca Gattoni-Celli
http://spectator.org/blog/2013/02/28/a-spectre-is-haunting-virginia
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7-08| 2.28.13 @ 11:41AM
Having NO formal economic credentials I certainly can't dispute any of this. Actual circumstance seem to support your premise. Thanks for the insight.
fmm| 2.28.13 @ 11:46AM
When I used to read about such things there were six levels of road construction, with level 1 guaranteeing bad congestion and level 6 guaranteeing no congestion. Since the costs increase dramatically with level, the wisdom of the politicians funding projects was to build at level 2 or maybe 3, guaranteeing some level of congestion which they felt the little people would accept, allowing the pols to pocket more of the funding monies. Of course this means that adding lanes or extra exchanges with increased traffic simply keeps the level at what it was in the initial design, and will never alleviate congestion. This phenomena is observed in big cities all the time.
Bob K| 2.28.13 @ 12:43PM
Do you live in the Washington DC suburbs Luca? If you do you have seen all the enormous projects involved in improving the infrastructure around the beltway. That is where Fairfax, VA is located, don'tcha know?
Here is a revolutionary idea for you! Since all the benefits of these improvements are going to benefit people in Virginia and neighboring Maryland I say let the people in those states pay for them. I don't think another dime of the taxes paid to Washington DC by all of us out here in "flyover country" should be used in building these highways!
That said, anything that makes life a little bit more miserable for the bureaucrats whose actions cause misery to everyone else out here on the fruited plain is OK with me!
Albert Constantine Jr.| 2.28.13 @ 12:53PM
Another thing to consider in the calculus: all of those who have been fleeing the confiscatory tax rates of Maryland's Governor O'Malley, as well as PG and Montgomery county, are further congesting the roads in NoVA, and a VA tax increase might slow their flight in that direction.
ksg| 2.28.13 @ 2:02PM
As a Virginian I am furious with McDonnell. There is much more to this story. McDonnell and his cronies in the GA are doing everything in their power to hand over government to the democrats. The fact that McDonnell's staff member admitted that he actually shared a congratulatory call with the gangster democrat candidate McAuliffe for governor over this supposed legislative victory should be a huge red flag. McDonnell's hand picked "republican" successor Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is hopping mad that conservatives and tea parties rested control of the Va GOP machine. Since he knows he cannot win at the state convention against freedom fighter Cuccinelli (we are not having a primary), he is now threatening to run independent.
McDonnell also LIED about not implementing obamacare. We will have a partnership exchange and add 400,000 new patients to an already broken system. McDonnell is a scoundrel, a liar and shameful.
Instead of raising taxes he/they should be auditing the government and trimming waste.
McDonnell still has NOT signed a Voter ID bill into to law that will require photo ID. They have a surplus. This stinks. McDonnell may think he is positioning himself for a run for president but he is fooling no one. These people are out for themselves. Just like all the RINOs in office and the media who only care about one thing: personal power and enrichment.
HR| 3.1.13 @ 12:19AM
Right there (here?) with you, ksg. Bob McDonnell is an absolute disgrace and a gigantic disappointment. Worse-- a traitor. I was nervous about the gubernatorial election, especially after Kaine's win. Now I see we stand to lose nothing. I'll be stumping my lul heart out for Cuccinelli and hoping McDonnell doesn't sleep for years.