As Yogi might have put it, the future of polling ain’t what it used to be. If the sample isn’t representative of the universe to be measured, the results are worthless. Michael Barone in this fine WSJ piece catalogues how the difficulties involved in getting a representative sample have escalated in recent years.
And the examples he gives of how badly pollsters have missed it in recent elections demonstrate his point. Worth keeping in mind during the primary races and beyond. If the venerable Gallup is throwing up its hands, what chance does the newbie Acme Polls have? We won’t know who’s on first until Election Night. Maybe not even then if it’s close. And that’s not all bad.