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The Spectacle Blog
Some are wondering why I appeared to change my tune from urging no deal on Monday to a very, very grudging but clear acceptance of the deal on Tuesday.
First, when I wrote on Monday, the Senate hadn’t acted yet, and certainly not with an 80-vote majority. The political calculations, and the cost of inaction by the House, shifted once the Senate acted.
But that’s the least important reason. The second lies in the Senate deal actually meeting (or almost entirely meeting) my specifications on Monday:
Any deal that delays the spending cuts under sequestration (without replacing them with other cuts) should be anathema. If this deal re-raises spending (on anything other than defense), it should be an absolute non-starter.
Now, if it delays sequestration, but replaces it with other, specified spending cuts instead of an across-the-board bludgeon, then that is actually BETTER policy than sequestration.
Well, the end result was indeed that the sequestration cuts were replaced with other cuts. Or at least they were offset with an equal amount of “savings.” Now, it is true that small portion of the offset comes from a change in Roth IRA accounting rather than from spending cuts. And it is true that the cuts aren’t “specified” as I had hoped. But the offsets do come in the form of law — in budget “caps” going forward that, while hardly foolproof, do actually provide several important hurdles in the way of those who would exceed them. Moreover, by keeping intact under law the exact same budget targets as under the original sequestration deal, and by keeping 5/6ths of those savings in the form of the very hard-to-evade bludgeon of sequestration (if Congress doesn’t act, sequestration is automatic; the GOP need not do any more bargaining to achieve those savings), fiscal conservatives are no worse off than they were a week ago. Tactically, in fact, they are better off, because they preserved sequestration, but without the threat of higher taxes that will kick in for everybody and automatically, if they don’t act.
There are several other techical and tactical considerations, but space and time don’t allow a full exploration of them — except, except, except! — for the great victory conservatives achieved on taxes that was beyond anything I think anybody hoped for. That victory comes in the form of keeping the full $5 million exemption against death taxes ($10 million for couples!), plus the additonal benefits, never anticipated, of being permanent and being permanently indexed for inflation. The second victory comes in the permanent, indexed-for-inflation fix for the Alternative Minimum Tax.
Considering that the right was facing a possible hike on all taxes being blamed on us, and that the alternative was a hike on all income about $250,000 without any conservative gains on the AMT and the death tax (and possibly a big loss on the latter), the end result was far, far better than had seemed possible after seven weeks of misplaying the conservative hand. Indeed, on tax policy, we nearly achieved a draw. On spending, we achieved at least a draw (with the added benefit of buying time to save defense). And in terms of politics, conservatives bought themselves two months to regroup and improve tactics, strategy, communications, and mood.
For all those reasons, the “over-the-cliff” advice I offered turned into the “cough-cough, splutter-splutter, well, okay, it’s not awful” conclusion I reached a day later. Both the policy and the politics of the situation argued slightly more in favor of the deal than before. On such a close call, considering the political reality that applied, I don’t see how anybody could be really angry at anybody who voted either way on the deal. If David Vitter, Jeff Sessions, Pat Toomey, Tom Coburn, and Ron Johnson(aong other solid fiscal conservatives) thought it was on ever-so-slight balance better to pass it than to defeat it, it’s just not fair to accuse those who voted for it of being “squishes” or “spineless”or “RINOs” or any other such epithet. This was no abandonment of principle; at worst, it was an improper weighing of conflicting pluses and minuses in terms of both principle and politics.
Now is the time to stop cannibalizing ourselves, and instead to move on and take the political advantages that are afforded by the next two budget-related battles. More on those advantages later…..
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2013/01/02/why-my-change-from-monday-to-t
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Pecos Pete| 1.2.13 @ 8:18PM
Quin: There was some good in this first deal. We're playing 5-card stud and both players have drawn a jack for the up card.
The debt cap will be the final card of 5. We'll see then how the game ends.
Pecos Pete| 1.2.13 @ 8:19PM
BBT!
Santiago| 1.2.13 @ 8:44PM
The fact that the estate tax exemption and the AMT were finally indexed for inflation seems to be a bright spot in an otherwise smelly deal.
fmm| 1.2.13 @ 10:09PM
And the tax issues pale in comparison with the huge spending problem facing this country, which , if history is any indicator, will not be addressed by further negotiations. Congress can not be trusted under current rules.
RJ| 1.2.13 @ 10:34PM
I agree, Quin - I am not angry at any of the GOP Senators or Representatives for how they voted on this bill. McConnell got us a better deal than I think anyone expected and I like his stand today in saying that tax increases are now off the table. I sure hope that he takes the lead for the GOP and that John Boehner stays in the background.
Now, let spending cuts be the one and only issue.
Simon Templar| 1.3.13 @ 12:07AM
Yes, tax cuts are now off the table and so is your bargaining chip. Ya got nothing now and they have no reason to stop spending in the least...
Now, they can demagogue, like they always do, on the debt ceiling and the weasels can cave on that too. The new little jingle will be something like the "Republican War on Struggling Americans."
RJ| 1.3.13 @ 2:00AM
I see it the other way around. Obama and Senate Democrats could have killed the "Bush tax cuts." Now they can't; the tax cuts have no expiration date. On the other hand, the House can kill their spending plans. No spending gets approved without their approval. All in all, better than I thought we would get starting the new year. My question tonight is Governor Christie determined to change parties? What is going on with him? Seems like a different guy since late October.
NH Conservative| 1.3.13 @ 8:51AM
Don't be angry! No, no! They betray their principles so clearly that Obama and Co. are laughing their buns off for their stupidity and gutlessness, but we should be kissy-face with them because it is "the best we could get." The Republican Party is dead my friend and with each passing day we are getting to see just how dead it really is.
Simon Templar| 1.3.13 @ 12:14AM
Quin, still thinking this was about a bill? Still think this was actually a bargain? Still believing the load of crap that this bought us time and they will regroup and actually fight on the next issue?
You are either insane, stupid, or a deceiver. Pick one.
aware| 1.3.13 @ 6:23AM
Deficit this year will be 330 billion HIGHER thanks to this. First 2 months of fiscal 2013 already 26% higher than 2012. CBO estimates debt will increase by 4 trillion over 10 years because of this(that means about 12 trillion in real world numbers).
This kind of excuse mongering and willingness to be sh** on(and like it) is why I gave up on "conservatism". Too many surrender monkeys and a maddening willingness to play a rigged game by skewed rules that assure this kind of outcome.
Simon Templar| 1.3.13 @ 8:43AM
You are absolutely correct and I share your frustration and disgust.
As far as giving up on conservatism, perhaps you might consider giving up on the people and the party who claim to be conservative rather than the philosophy. The beliefs and values of our founding fathers will always be timeless self evident truths while the parade of fools that supposedly espouse these values will come and go.
Occam's Tool| 1.3.13 @ 1:34AM
My nurses' tax rates went up more than mine. Amusing.
Bruing Back TLP!
Tina B| 1.3.13 @ 4:40AM
Tiiiimmmmmmyyyyy!
Shouted a la Marlon Brando in "Streetcar Named Desire."
Bowing.
NH Conservative| 1.3.13 @ 8:32AM
With this kind of "thinking" no wonder conservatism is dying. This was a horrible deal and to try to spin it otherwise is an insult to our intelligence. We gave away the farm and Obama is laughing his butt off at the shear incompetence and spinelessness of the GOP. That The American Spectator should go out of its way to try spin this as something that it isn't is pathetic and disheartening for a blog I have a lot of respect for...until now. When Paul Ryan tries to justify his vote by saying that he voted to raise taxes in order to reduce taxes then you know we have descended into absurdity.
Simon Templar| 1.3.13 @ 8:48AM
I understand the frustration and disgust. Keep pointing out the absurdities and keep telling the truth but do not give up on conservatism. Not all here, even at the Spectator, are apologist and backsliders.
Quin Hillyer| 1.3.13 @ 9:49PM
I think too many conservatives misunderstand sequestration. Unlike mere budget targets, sequestration happens AUTOMATICALLY if no further action is taken. Obama can scream all he wants, but if the GOP just does nothing, $86 billion of cuts will be made automatically on March 1 -- $43 billion of it from domestic programs. We have ALL the leverage on that; Obama has none.
Jim Sweeney| 1.3.13 @ 11:11AM
The problem with your analysis is that most of us don't make enough money to come under AMT and fewer still have $5 or $10 million dollar estates. That's for rich conservatives and rich liberals. Most of us are just voters who work for a living and we see zero in it for us other than the usual chickening out of Republican politicos when the chips are really down. You cannot translate your arguments into votes and that's what counts in election Dummy. It's why R lost; he can count money but not votes. Apparently, neither can you.
Oldefarte| 1.3.13 @ 2:48PM
The Republic ans caved......they could/should have said NO:
http://www.newsmax.com/Headlin...../id/469895