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Divining Hamas’ Intent

By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi on 11.19.12 @ 11:32AM

Jonathan Spyer has an interesting analysis at the Weekly Standard on the current conflict between Israel and Hamas. A couple of points to comment on:

1. Spyer is right to draw attention to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as something that partly emboldened the leadership of Hamas in Gaza to renew armed hostility to Israel over the course of this year.

2. I disagree with Spyer that Hamas’ decision-making constituted a “miscalculation” in his assertion that “apparently, the movement assumed that Israel shared its perspective on the changed balance of forces and would acquiesce to Hamas’s allowing and participating in terror attacks on Israel’s south.”

On the contrary, I would argue that Hamas was expecting that Israel would respond at some point and has all along been hoping to use the inevitable consequence — most notably the larger number of Palestinian fatalities as opposed to Israeli losses — to gain a propaganda victory and strengthen its position in Gaza, with one aim being to redirect the already waning support of Arab governments for Fatah and the PA towards the leadership in Gaza by inducing said governments to follow the lead of Turkey and Qatar.

None of that is to overlook the issue of internal Hamas rivalry discussed in my article today.

Occam's Tool| 11.19.12 @ 12:19PM

Flatten Gaza if necessary. Win the war. That's what Gilad Sharon thinks, and I agree with him. Remember, the Gazans VOTED for HAMAS. Vote for war, suffer it.

C Bowen | 11.19.12 @ 6:27PM

Occam;

But you support a final solution to the Muslim Question, don't you?

"Without pity, remorse, or mercy. At minimal cost in American dollars and lives. Leave them poisoned, deformed, crying, and broken in spirit, soul, and mind. Make their survivors build the Mexican wall for us, without pay, under the lash. Let their future be a boot crashing down on a human face, forever."

http://spectator.org/blog/2011.....tcontainer

RCV| 11.19.12 @ 2:08PM

I think Al-Tamimi's analysis is insightful.

I also agree with Gilad Sharon. Hamas should be rooted out with thoroughness. Destroyed to the last martyr.

C Bowen | 11.19.12 @ 6:34PM

Aymenn;

Your cover article did not mention that the current events might be tied to the assassination (illegal) of Ahmed al-Jabari, who was rumored in the NY Times and Israeli press to be close to a cease fire.

How seriously should you be taken as a Muslim at Oxford who misses basic details?
With the elections coming up, peace (or a temporary cease fire anyway) was certainly not in Likud's interest. Isn't that the simplest explanation?

RCV| 11.19.12 @ 7:13PM

Al-Jabari was the head of the military wing of Hamas, which has dedicated itself to the destruction of Israel and was in the process of making war on Israel by firing hundreds of rockets at its citizens. How could anyone argue that Israel defending itself by successfully shooting back at the man who was raining rockets on that country is an "illegal" act?

C Bowen | 11.19.12 @ 7:56PM

Until Obama came along and claimed the same right to extra-judicial, extra-sovereignty rights to assassination, it was US and ersatz "world" policy to be against the practice.

The Bush Administration condemned Israel when they carried out such an action 10 years ago--note, Obama stays silent, perhaps only because he does the same thing now.

If Israel carried out an assassination on Al-Jabari who is speculated was offering a cease fire, why? Certainly, the calculus was easy enough to figure out Hamas would fire rockets back at them. Qui bono?

The author, a Muslim at Oxford, did not even touch on the subject which deserves a full discussion.

RCV| 11.20.12 @ 1:31AM

Hamas was firing hundreds of missiles at Israel immediately prior to the assassination so that's hardly the cause of Hamas's acts of war.

C Bowen | 11.20.12 @ 12:44PM

The current wave of violence was precipitated when the IDF entered Gaza to cease a "weapons cache." In the process, the IDF killed a 13 year old boy, and that set off a new round of violence and in this scenario, an opportunity to carry out an extra-judicial hit on a leader who is alleged to have been working on a truce (consider Israeli elections and the impact of a truce on them.)

Whatever the case, the author did not begin to describe the nature of the current event.

spike59| 11.20.12 @ 5:57AM

what you call an 'assassination', i call 'putting down a dangerous animal'

C Bowen | 11.20.12 @ 12:45PM

spike, You and Obama are deep thinkers, never considering what will rise in the power vacuum.

JimH| 11.20.12 @ 9:59AM

This is an attempt by factions in or rivals to Hamas trying to establish some revolutionary street cred. It is facilitated by Iran in order to provide a distraction.