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October Surprise, for Real

Just for the record: I fully expect an October Surprise this year. In fact, I am fairly certain what it will be: Iran will announce that it will stop uranium enrichment and allow “inspections.”

(Both moves will be temporary and with all sorts of conditions, but the temporariness and conditionality will become evident only AFTER the American elections. In the end, Iran will continue on its merry way developing nuke weapons, but only after throwing Obama a lifeline via this bogus “announcement.”)

The establishment media will play up this phony “accord” with every megaphone in its arsenal. 

It’s gonna be a bumpy ride, folks.

View all comments (51) |

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 1:25PM

Just for the record: the October surprise has already happened and was handed on a silver platter to the corrupt GOP who can not seem to get it together to utilize it, investigate, and prosecute those responsible. Benghazi.

We are not impotent and helpless to every frigin political manipulation, lie, and trap that a liberal democrat comes up with.

Well, if this actually happens, then what the hell are we going to about it?

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:37PM

I agree with your thoughts but realistically, there is nothing useful that would result from an investigation [since the Democrats are so corrupt that they will stall, lie etc as they typically do about this]. Again the only solution is for everyone to council their friends, neighbors etc to vote their entire Republican ticket in November, which will eliminate the whole bunch of them in one fell swoop. If Rs control the three branches, then progress can begin to be made on cleaning/investigating this corruption so that hopefully it will be avoided in the future!!!!

Crassus| 10.15.12 @ 1:46PM

I'm more worried about the flash mobs which are sure to take to the streets if Obummer continues to tumble in the polls.

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 2:13PM

Why? This would be a disaster for the liberals and this administration as it would be perceived poorly by the vast American public as lawless, anti-American and anarchist.

Skippy| 10.15.12 @ 3:59PM

The race riots will come when the weather is warmer.
Unless the potential rioters are just like Prince Bambo, who only wants 3 things from life.
Earl Butz knew what they were.

Crassus| 10.15.12 @ 10:50PM

But that's not the way the Obama media would spin things. They would spin it that we need to re-elect Obama in order to keep our cities from burning and keep the peace on the streets. This might scare a lot of moderate suburban voters.

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:41PM

No the mobs will only come as a result of futuristic attempts to do away with governmental welfare by R/R. These indigents don't give a rat's ars about this POTUS, only in what welfare he provides to them. As in Europe, the rioting will commence when the governmental candy is extracted!!!!!!!!

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 2:13PM

At this point, I'm thinking of voting for Obama.

What the hell? The GOP is so feckless, so, craven, so much like the Democrats that it makes very little difference.

And we know a President Romney, while marginally better than Obama, will not have the spine or the wherewithal to change the trajectory of our headlong rush to collapse.

And, if by some miracle he did, that would mean amputating many of the Leviathan's limbs, which would mean many oxen gored - even among people who consider themselves Republicans. To say nothing of what he'll be forced to do to stop runaway inflation, which is all but inevitable. The word "draconian" doesn't even approach what is required to stanch the hemmorrhaging. Americans will simply not allow it, which will set the stage for riots and discord that will make what's going on in Greece look like fun and games.

And everyone would then blame him for being "mean spirited" for trying to acknowledge reality. Which will, in turn, usher in a new class of Democrats in the congress of 2014, and then a Democrat again in 2016 - and since Obama's shattered the glass floor, there's no telling what idiotic boob would become our next president: Sean Penn, perhaps, or Eva Longoria?

No, better to vote for Obama's re-election. At least when the last vestiges of the American edifice come crashing down, liberals will be buried alongside us in the rubble.

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 2:29PM

Yes, Grzmlyk, the GOP establishment good ole boys certainly are corrupted. I understand your frustration as I share it. But consider that it was as corrupted in 1980 but Reagan did make strides towards turning our economy around and our foreign policy as well. Now, I know Romney is not Reagan but I do believe with pressure from the 41 million Tea party, the communist media, and the public at large there will be tremendous pressure to do something besides the tired old dodging and lame attempts. American do not lend themselves to mass rioting and anarchy easily and historically have resisted this impulse.
Americans by in large recognize that cuts need to be made. Cuts alone will not get us out of this mess, however, and I believe that Romney as a business man knows this very well and will attempt to grow revenue through vigorous and original incentives and policy to stimulate real growth. WE HAVE done this before.

You are also forgetting that the markets will have something to say about a Romney election. There are thousands of business owners waiting for the Romney win that will bring about an explosion of new investment, jobs, and expansion. All those sitting on cash from Granny to IBM will rush back into the markets as well.

I am taking your comment as sarcasm to make a point. I have a great deal of respect for your commentary but I can not accept that you would really vote for that communist.

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 3:11PM

Well, I'm not sure my comment is sarcasm, really, though I don't think I have the stomach to vote for Obama. I believe that every single person who voted for this piece of shit in 2008 is guilty of treason.

I'd point out that America wasn't so far left in 1980 as it is today; in the intervening years, government has metastasized, and our education system/pop culture complex have churned out idiots who believe that they'll go to secular heaven if they decry capitalism. We are an utterly different country from what we were in 1980.

There is no stigma to being on the government dole anymore; we are a country without a character.

Also, Reagan ran into a buzz saw - government actually grew under Reagan, deficits skyrocketed and his early desire to cut fiefdoms like Education were dead on a rival because the bureaucracy was so powerful then - and it's WAY more powerful now.

Also, we do NOT HAVE A REVENUE problem in this country; we have a SPENDING problem. I don't want more revenue going to feed the Leviathan. Period.

I believe we will see rioting in this country. Absolutely - Either money will be completely debased by inflation or interest rates will go up. The other shoe will drop under either scenario.

And markets may initially open up a bit under Romney, but he won't take a serious crack at Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley or the EPA. A GOP president is a gelding.

There is only one way out, and it will be ugly on an unprecedented scale.

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:52PM

You're possibly not seeing the whole picture here. Romney [who will never be Reagan or even close] is THE ONLY CHOICE. Whatever he does or soesn't do will be a advantage, as the alternative is THE LAST FOUR YEARS ON STERIODS. You have to pull one of the only two levers in the voting booth [and Reagan etc won't one of them]!!!!!!

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 3:15PM

Just to clarify, once all that money gets off the sidelines and rushes into the market, that's going to make inflation skyrocket - one reason we haven't seen 20% inflation in this country is specifically because so much is sitting in banks and on the sidelines. Once that money goes into circulation, we'll see massive inflation.

And we have a market bubble right now - the inflation that has worked its way into the system has inflated stock prices; there will be a correction which will mean a crash. There is no way stocks are worth what they are currently valued at. And, as always, those who are out early will survive and thrive; those who are left holding the bag will be paying for this folly.

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 4:10PM

I agree to some extent that the culture has changed in part for some segments and the general entitlement attitude has gotten worse. At the same time, we have never had such intense citizen activism on the right with the active work of the Tea Party 41 million. We did not have that either in 1980. One thing my, friend. you may have overlooked is economic and principles of market forces which have not changed.
Now, inflation is primarily caused by the government printing and spending money that has no actual wealth creation under it. The money earned by people moving back into capital investment instruments not just stocks but bonds and everything else is what we want.

The money that companies have held unto being put into expansionary activities, new job creation, purchases, etc. will have anti-inflationary effects as real wealth will be created and more revenue created to pay down government debt which will also have an anti-inflationary effect and stabilize the dollars fall in value. I do not think we are set for doom and its useless and we are helpless. This nation has faced several challenges just like the one we are in right now and it was turned around.

The growing expansion of government is certainly a very critical element of the whole mess. I have belief that it will be confronted given the tremendous movement of Americans who are now active and ready to take this on. This Tea Party activism is not going away. The cat is out of the bag.

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:56PM

There will be no more "market" if this POTUS is re-elected [nor an economy that isn't represented by a donkey pulling a cart]. Inflation will be triple digets, markets will crash and the government will begin confiscating businesses and continue dolling out welfare!!!!!!!!!!

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:48PM

Even if Romney is incapable of doing any positive measures, he at least will represent a partial roadblock against the radical domestic terrorists aka Democrats. To coin this POTUS's words, IF YOU LIKE WHAT YOU'VE SEEN/EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS, then bend over, grap your socks and kiss your ars goodbye because Armegeddon will be at hand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:43PM

If you vote for him, you'll be condemning yourself and your loved ones to hell, because that is what this country will turn into in two years after his re-election. The hell will resemble Cuba/Mexico with people begging in the streets!!!!!!!!!!!

JD| 10.15.12 @ 2:32PM

Ayn Rand might agree with you - that to elect a nominal conservative who betrays conservative principles will do more harm by convincing the ignorant that conservatives are bad than Obama would do by moving us left faster.

Perhaps it is true that letting the Left win for a while is the only way to impart lasting wisdom on the electorate.

But I will vote for Romney, and here's why:

The Left has proven that it can blame the Right for all problems even if the Right has no power at all. This suggests that who's in power has no significant impact on the Left's ability to lie, so we have no reason to support the more Left over the less Left. It may be the lesser of two evils, but a Romney vote is still the way to go, because it will result in less Leftist policy than any other voting action.

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 3:54PM

Well, I'd rather chew my own arm off rather than put a check next to Obama's name - BUT:

While it is true that the left can and will always blame the right for everything, what really gets to me is that the entire culture of this country has raced as far left as is humanly possible in the last 50 years. And it's accelerating (despite Emmett Tyrrell's wishful).

Look at incest. A few years ago it was considered anathema all but the moonbat leftists.

Today we are starting to see littler feelers being put out - now that the door has been broken down by gay marriage, we've begun to hear the "well, why can't a brother and sister, if they're adults, get together? Who are we to judge?"

In five years it'll be considered "mean spirited" to be against incest.

In 10 years, those who are against incest will be considered right-wing fascists.

And then it'll be bestiality. And that's just sexuality; the left is that way about EVERY ISSUE. There is no point at which they say, "we've gone far enough left." NONE. They never, ever stop.

So my temptation to vote for Obama is the desire to hand liberals the world they so badly want without giving them the excuse of saying that the right prevented them from fully implementing their Utopia. Give them what they want and when it results in universal misery, crime, poverty and chaos, they'll have only themselves to blame.

But, to your point, even then they won't see the utter nihilism that is the liberal agenda.

Skippy| 10.15.12 @ 4:02PM

Hey, why is it that leftists are all gung-ho about expanding the list of acceptable people and places in which to insert a penis?
Isn't that kinda Junior High?

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 4:14PM

It's all about creating victim groups, keeping them feeling like victims, perpetuating their alienation, balkanizing America, shattering the culture and then capitalizing on people's isolation and misery, promising that Big Government will kiss it and make it all better.

The left doesn't give a flying rat's ass about any of the actual issues it espouses; there is one, and only one goal: Ulimate power over YOU.

As H.L. Mencken said, the urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it."

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 4:20PM

Also, with respect to sexuality, they're after what Lenin realized: If you destroy the nuclear family - the most cohesive, positive, life-affirming building block of the American edifice - you are then able to usurp the parental role, obviating mommy and daddy, which then allows you to own people - subjects of the state - from a very early age.

JD| 10.15.12 @ 6:19PM

They will simply say that government is filling a need. They'll never acknowledge any role in creating the need.

"Food Stamp President" is a badge of honor to them, because the evil Republicans would be letting people starve instead of giving them food stamps.

JD| 10.15.12 @ 6:17PM

I used to hate hearing conservatives say this, because it's an exaggeration and it's off-putting. A million liberal sheep will say "I DO care, and I don't want power over anyone," and they'll never listen to you again because you accused them so wrongly.

But while that's entirely true - the vast majority on the Left have good intentions - they're still wrong. And the nature of their wrongness is exactly what you said - that their policies work by establishing a vague, open-ended eternal debt to government that everyone owes, so that everyone can be coerced into doing what they want.

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 11:20PM

Well, I agree with you in part, but I don't think that the "vast majority on the left" have good intentions. I know what you mean, though - the rank and file NPR listeners, which are indeed legion. The soccer moms who think that throwing other people's money at problems confers virtue onto them, the white-guilt ridden upper middle class, the naive students, the academia nuts, Don Quixotes of the world, the aging hippies, etc.

But if you scratch just beneath that patina, you'll find not altruism but hungry egos and inexhaustible vanity in many people - and then there are the crooks (Michael Moore, Al Gore, Jeffrey Immelt, the unions, the Democrat politicians, most of Wall Street, the lawyers, the lobbyists, the bureaucrats), the pawns (ignorant recipients of government largess in exchange for their independence) and the vandals - those like Barack Obama whose intentions are only to cut America down to size.

JD| 10.16.12 @ 12:48AM

I would like to see them cut America down to size, since they think that the government is all that is America. But I don't think they're trying to do that.

The second you commit to the claim that they have bad intentions, they and the public will dismiss you if they can find evidence of good intentions. But we don't need them to have bad intentions to be wrong. They're plenty wrong even if they have the best of intentions. Stick to debate points that you win without having to read minds.

Occam's Tool| 10.15.12 @ 7:30PM

It's what they think with, Skippy. See: WJC.

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 4:19PM

Grzmlyk,

If he is reelected there will be certainty in our destruction as a free Republic and many of our fellow Americans will suffer just to make a point.
The transformation they want will be a reality, not just a hypothetical. It will be much more difficult to turn this damage around.
They will still be blaming the conservatives after the Utopian nightmare takes hold.

Grzmlyk, there seems to be a underlying belief that if they are given their way and society collapses, somehow that will be good and people will finally learn the needed lesson of liberalism and the importance of liberty. History has not shown this to be true. If liberalism is nihilistic then let us not join them by being nihilistic about our chances of beating them and saving our Republic.

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 4:29PM

Well, I attempted in my response to point out that, ultimately, I agree with you.

I specifically said that after it all falls apart and we are reduced to a lord-of-the-flies existence thanks to liberalism, they will STILL blame us.

And so I will vote for Romney, and I will hope for the best, even though I'm pretty sure he'll turn out to be another craven politician who will do his best to kick the can down the road, and, even if he attempts a heroic save of the country, it'll be too late.

We have decided, I believe, to hold hands and leap off the cliff together, telling each other the lie that there will be a nice soft air mattress to break our fall if only we believe hard enough.

What we are witnessing is the suicide of a civilization.

And future civilizations performing an autopsy will find the twin pathologies that brought us down: greed masquerading as compassion and chintzy moral vanity.

Simon Templar| 10.15.12 @ 4:45PM

Grzmlyk,

Glad to hear that! My intent is not to get you to agree with everything as I see it as I learned a long time ago that I am wrong about a lot of things and try to consider others points of view as my ego can tolerate.
I do not have any unrealistic expectations as I am not putting all my hope in one man or this GOP party. I am putting my hope in myself and in you and the other 41 million. We are not going down without a fight and I do believe we can beat them, both the corrupt GOP and the liberal elites.

I do not think it is too late because we have reached similar points of no return and serious threatening situations. Heck, this nation tore itself apart in war and the Republic survived.
The key here is to look to ourselves not them to save us.

Just my take...

Wish you well, Grzmlyk

Grzmlyk| 10.15.12 @ 4:57PM

Thanks for your kind words, Simon. I read your comments a lot, and I know we have very similar points of view - I may be a bit more cynical than you are.

I will say I think the state of collapse we've reached is far, far worse than it has ever been in this country - after all, we borrow almost $200 million every hour of every day, and that's accelerating at an insane pace. On top of that, our unfunded liabilities, combined with the 50% of the country who don't pay into the system, is, I think, a fatal cocktail.

I believe that Ben Bernanke knows this - which is why he's doing what countries with sovereign debt crises always do - trying to pay off the unsustainable debt with devalued dollars.

But consider this - if steep inflation is not in our future - which I believe will kill us off - then higher interest rates are, and the interest on the debt will kill us.

I believe that we are simply following the arc of behavior that human nature dictates we must - this kind of trajectory - from independence to abject servitude - seems to be a natural consequence of a wealthy society - the human equivalent of entropy.

Hope I'm wrong.

I wish you well, also!

JD| 10.15.12 @ 6:30PM

The problem of the misled masses will never solve itself. It won't go away because we elected Romney. It won't go away because we let the Left get its way to the point of disaster.

It will never be permanently solved, either. Like sin and death, it will always be part of this world.

Solving it even temporarily isn't achieved at the ballot box, but on the streets. WE have to fight lies with truth. No politician can do it all for us.

I referenced Atlas Shrugged before. I think Rand's depiction of "collectivism" is spot-on, but her proposed solutions are less solid. Notice two things, though:

First, John Galt didn't just stay gone until apocalypse - he had to return and give a radio address. He had to TELL the world the truth, or they wouldn't have learned it, despite their experience.

Second, Rand never depicts a rebuilding. The book ends in the tragedy. The entire story builds the idea that Galt's idea would save the world, but we never see it happen. What does that mean?

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 1:58PM

No, it is repairable now, but if you give them four more etc, the misery will be for eternity!!!!!!!!!!

RJ| 10.15.12 @ 2:33PM

The Obama Administration's obvious deception over the deaths of the embassy staff in Libya has greatly reduced the credibility of any pre-election deal with Iran.

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 2:07PM

For "deception" I would suggest the substitution of FACILITATION!!!!!!!!

wombat1| 10.15.12 @ 2:36PM

Well, then, do a Biden on them- announce it far and wide - RIGHT NOW- that an accord has been reached. When the news hits the street, the Iranians will feel their hand is being forced and deny it. And of course that makes it impossible for them to climb down later.

Egg on Obama's face before he even cracks it.

Game set and match, as they say

RAM| 10.15.12 @ 3:01PM

Iran's whole development program is a series of illusory accommodations to Western pressure. Just like the chain of foolishness that led to Munich and WW2. Neville Chamberlain thought he had a really good piece of paper.

Skippy| 10.15.12 @ 4:04PM

It was a fabulous piece of paper!
Thanks to that brave page, a world war was avoided.

Occam's Tool| 10.15.12 @ 7:32PM

For a minute or two.

Personally, I think the lesson must be learned on our enemies' skin, with airbursts to prevent severe distribution of lethal fallout.

Occam's Tool| 10.15.12 @ 8:21PM

Gotta disagree, Quin. They hate the Kaffir.

Jocon307 | 10.15.12 @ 9:05PM

I really don't think this would be enough to change voters' minds, not enough voters anyway.

People are really going to vote their (empty) pocketbooks this election.

The Bengahzi incident/cover-up hurts Obama because it plays to his incompetence more than anything else.

It negates the "OBL is dead" advantage too, but he won't get enough back due to some BS "deal" with the Iranians.

Mike W| 10.15.12 @ 10:51PM

Mr. Quinn is spouting ridiculous neocon crap. How can the Iranians give up something they aren't doing?

Oh that's right. Israel and Netanyahoo say they are doing it so it must be true. Willard will be a good boy and do their bidding.

JD| 10.16.12 @ 12:49AM

Are the North Koreans doing it, Mike?

Occam's Tool| 10.16.12 @ 1:16AM

Mike: please tell me anything that you have done in your life as worthwhile as Bibi's brother. Hell, I know you don't do anything as worthwhile as what I do every day, and Yoni makes ME look like a POS. But Bibi was also a commando.

It's refreshing to see a dhimmi so openly spread cheek, and not hide their depravity.

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 2:04PM

Hopefully a POTUS Romney will hand over those US BUNKERBUSTERS to his dear friend in Israel and tell him to GO FOR IT!!!!!!!

spike59| 10.16.12 @ 5:37AM

Mike W...how much do the mullahs pay you for being their 'kneepad' supporter????? do they at least let you wipe your chin afterwards?

Oldefarte| 10.16.12 @ 2:02PM

Okay so re-elect the current guy and allow him to continue to facilitate a Muslim takeover of the ME and then to head towards the US and Europe. 9/11/01 will be a cakewalk compared to what that future will hold!!!!!!!!!!

Martin kzovich| 10.16.12 @ 7:39AM

I know it will be a bumpy ride but the question of trust should raised--that is trust in both Iran and our administration--thus the question: Are you willing to trust this administration with our national security given what we know about the lies Obama
continues to spill about Libyagate and fast and furious.Among other things--and oh yes that famous open mike comment of "flexibility " "after the election" with Mr Medvedev ?

Martin kzovich| 10.16.12 @ 7:44AM

The folks who claim to believe that voting for Obama is better than voting for an imperfect
alternative but far better than what we have now make me wonder about them. I do not trust such people at all. For me this election is a referendum on Obama and if you for him you are saying that you support his vision for America. Voting for Romney does not mean you are married to him.

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