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The Spectacle Blog
I was stunned into silence by this morning’s ridiculous unemployment report, showing a magical drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8% despite not one single other economic or employment indictator suggesting that such a gain was possible.
My (anonymous) friends at Colorado Peak Politics have a good short note on this morning’s report as I’m just too angry at the report — and reconsidering my prior statement that it’s probably not being manipulated — to write my own note other than this one…
Economist (and my friend) Brian Wesbury goes somewhat deeper into the numbers, noting “the huge rise in civilian employment was goosed by part-timers, with a 322,000 overall gain and a 582,000 increase for those working part-time for economic reasons.”
View all comments (33) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/10/05/the-october-surprise
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lsudolemite| 10.5.12 @ 12:29PM
Care to tell us now that the numbers aren't cooked?
Ross Kaminsky| 10.5.12 @ 1:01PM
You have me reconsidering...
MyGirlFriday| 10.5.12 @ 3:44PM
Why didn't the U6 numbers didn't change? Why did Bernake insist on QE3? This does not pass the smell test of a dirty rat.
Stan Redmond| 10.5.12 @ 4:37PM
I have not looked at the numbers but I have a feeling there are a whole lot of "unpaid family workers" in this report. And in fact I would go so far as to say there is a whole lot of new criteria that count for being "unpaid family workers."
If an unemployed husband stays at home and watches the kids while his wife goes to her part time job I'm going to bet he is counted as employed now.
I have absolutely no faith in anything connected to this administration.
John2| 10.5.12 @ 4:55PM
Why are you not finished with reconsidering? It should take a few seconds, no longer. Where can you find any doubt abotu what is going on here?
C. Vernon Crisler | 10.5.12 @ 9:38PM
Ross, this is a good reason why Romney should not rest on his debate laurels. The way some people were talking, it's as through Romney had already won the presidency.
Romney needs to stay on the attack and not fall into the temptation of tacking toward blandness in order to "look presidential" (a mistake Newt made in his last debate with Romney).
This is going to be a hard game all the way to the buzzer.
Thom| 10.5.12 @ 1:22PM
I’ll ask the obvious question, if everyone that wanted a job had one and they were all 20 hour part time jobs would the unemployment rate be 0%? A lot of people that were looking for summer work went back to “school” in Sept paid for mostly on the tax payer’s dime. They are neither working nor looking for work. How does the BLS handle that situation, seasonal adjustments cranked in?
It is a given that no single number put out by the BLS stands on its own. The number reported should be taken like the annual forecast of Hurricanes put out by another government agency. The number of people going on disability (early retirement) is an indication of paying people to leave work early thus the BLS data is cooked by manipulation of the work force near retirement age. If the government pays enough people to not work one would expect the BLS numbers to look favorable…
lsudolemite| 10.5.12 @ 1:24PM
All of which is beside the point. This report politically accomplished exactly what it was intended to.
DRed| 10.5.12 @ 1:41PM
There are no political appointees at the BLS. So why would career BLS employees all take part in a massive fraud to create a fake jobs report? It's a pretty stupid theory.
lsudolemite| 10.5.12 @ 1:59PM
So I'm to believe that Obama got a significant, miraculous drop in unemployment below that magic 8% mark, for the first time, at precisely the perfect time prior to the election? Maybe I should revisit my unbelief in Santa and the Easter Bunny, too.
DRed| 10.5.12 @ 2:09PM
No, you should believe that the entire BLS is engaged in a massive, long term conspiracy to get Obama reelected. That makes much more sense than the continuation of a trend of mediocre job growth.
Stan Redmond| 10.5.12 @ 5:09PM
Doesn't have to be long term. Magically 400,000 jobs just appear out of no where? AND 400,000 available jobs aren't counted anymore. And just in time for November elections.
Nick| 10.5.12 @ 4:02PM
"There are no political appointees at the BLS."
So, who runs the BLS, DRed? Are they an autonomous agency?
The BLS is part of the Department of Labor, brainiac.
Who promotes? Who hires? Who decides who does what job?
Give me a break. Were you serious?
It's really "stupid" to think that the party who promotes bigger government, more & larger federal union benefits, and rules to make it harder to fire the incompetent could persuade the BLS to shave a few tenths of a percentage point off the monthly unemployment rate, huh? In an election year!
But, your lib comrades are the first to cry "conspiracy" when "Big Oil" raises gas prices.
DRed| 10.5.12 @ 4:39PM
Well, Nick, there should be a politically appointed director of the BLS. Since you are far too lazy to do any work yourself, I will explain things to you. Our president tried to appoint someone to lead the BLS. Since he's the second coming of Joseph Stalin, he nominated a woman who sent her daughter to a Jewish summer camp that was founded, in part, by members of the communist party (in the 1920s). Obviously, true patriots in the Republican Party weren't going to let such a pinko manipulate employment data. Not on their watch! Obama's appointee was never confirmed so the BLS is run by its deputy commissioner, a guy named Galvin, who is not a political appointee. So yes, I was serious.
aware| 10.5.12 @ 5:18PM
Dude, you're really buzzkilling this Romney Fest with the unwanted introduction of stuff that happens to be true.
It's not a dark conspiracy to "help Obama"( the really dark ones are way above his rank) but I do believe the "data" is bunk. Not because of corruption of the personnel but because of how and what information is used to arrive at the data.
It is skewed to favor a generally rosier picture than is the truth which benefits the political class primarily. Works that way regardless of who the incumbent is.
All "data" released by the State is always geared to make the State and its professional class of criminals look better than they are. Why would anyone believe "statistics" released by the most corrupt entity in existence?
If you had only the information they use, you would have the same conclusion. That's how it's done. And the info crunchers all get to be "honest" cause the fix was way above them.
Nick| 10.5.12 @ 5:48PM
No, DRed, the lazy one is the Appeaser-in-Chief, remember?
Didn't you watch the debate?
And, last I checked, Hilda Solis is the current Labor Secretary. I'm sure she has plenty of deputies, who serve at her pleasure. So, to act as if political pressure cannot be applied to BLS is either naive, or ignorant.
Jack Welch tweeted that these numbers are suspect. Do you really believe that the unemployment rate has dropped 0.6% in the past two months? May I sell you some beach front property?
Did you read Mr. Kirchhoefer's blog-post, just before Mr. Kaminsky's?
Besides, the actual unemployment rate is almost 12% & 23 million Americans are still out of work. Happy days are here again!
Plus, the O'Bama regime is still lying & covering up the incompetence and lack of security that resulted in FOUR MURDERED AMERICANS on September 11th. The first time an U.S. ambassador has been assassinated since 1979. (Only six in our history. Nice legacy.)
And, O'Biden has admitted that the O'Bama regime has "buried" the middle-class.
Oh, he also said that they were going to raise taxes by ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!!!
Can't wait for the V.P. debate. What a moron!
DRed| 10.5.12 @ 6:35PM
Jack Welsh certainly has extensive knowledge about cooking the books, but what he doesn't have is any credibility or evidence that the BLS is fudging numbers.
All the current employees at the BLS are career civil servants. There are no political appointees. Hilda Solis has no deputies at the BLS.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:20PM
Yup. All Paul Ryan has to do is have two red neon signs in front of him that he can turn on and off alternately whenever Biden is speaking. one will say, in shocking red neon: "Yes, we WILL raise your taxes by One Trillion Dollars." Joe Biden.
The other, in shocking pink Neon, will be the line about "The Middle Class has been buried [under the Obama Administration] over the last few years." Joe Biden.
He can then sit there like Teller, pointing at the signs alternately while shaking his head and rolling his eyes as Biden drones on. He can also unplug them and replace them as desired with other great lines from Joe Biden, all while quietly shaking his head and pulling a Teller.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:38PM
And, whenever a question is addressed to Ryan, all he needs to do is say that he really is less entertaining than Joe and would like him to continue while constantly replacing one neon sign with another.
See below for the signs.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:40PM
"Stand up, Chuck [in a wheelchair], let them see you," "You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.... I'm not joking," ''I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. ... When one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. That's me. I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation, suggesting they ride the subway,''
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:42PM
More signs: ''Look, John's last-minute economic plan does nothing to tackle the number-one job facing the middle class, and it happens to be, as Barack says, a three-letter word: jobs. J-O-B-S, jobs,''''A man I'm proud to call my friend. A man who will be the next President of the United States -- Barack America!,''''If we do everything right, if we do it with absolute certainty, there's still a 30% chance we're going to get it wrong''''His mom lived in Long Island for ten years or so. God rest her soul. And- although, she's- wait- your mom's still- your mom's still alive. Your dad passed. God bless her soul, [to the Irish Prime Minister]''
''My mother believed and my father believed that if I wanted to be president of the United States, I could be, I could be Vice President!,'' ( a wink at Joe on that one)
''When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, 'Look, here's what happened, [no commercial TVs, and Hoover was President]''
More below:
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:46PM
''I guess what I'm trying to say without boring you too long at breakfast--and you all look dull as hell, I might add. The dullest audience I have ever spoken to. Just sitting there, staring at me. Pretend you like me! [to a group of donors],'' ''I've been sleeping with a teacher for a long time. But it's always been the same teacher.'' , ''Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me....''
on and on, and on. No one inserts his foot in his mouth more often than Joe. Why debate him? Have him debate himself, and, actually, just have Teller show up to do this, introduced by Paul Ryan,as in---"I could debate Joe. But I think Mr. teller will present my case more accurately. Mr. Teller, as you know, is the non-speaking member of Penn and Teller. I am going to let Joe present his case uninterrupted by me, and I simply ask that the camera occasionally show what Mr. Teller will be doing..."
Sign after sign of his greatest idiocies, while Joe bloviates on and on...and Teller makes his famous silent hand gestures and facial movements...
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:21PM
Nick, may G-d protect and keep your family in the Book of Life this season. I love your work, pal.
Tom Kyba| 10.6.12 @ 1:50PM
Sarcasm doesn't work when attempted by Marxists. Especially the snotty ones.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:10PM
This is simple: look at thenumber of people coming off the rolls of those looking for jobs?
Certainly, no one is feeling that hiring is picking up. Except for me, of course. Every week I get another 5-10 job offers in the mail because I am well known for being brilliant in my field. But I hate heat, and I don't want to move. I also make a helluva lot of money with no overhead.
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:13PM
By my experience of being pursued by job offers like George Clooney is pursued by Supermodels is NOT the norm for my neighbors, and the beautiful building lots next to my home and across the street from me in one of the nicest neighborhoods in my area have not ben sold in three years.
Obama is killing our economy, our military, and our kids. (I was being pursued by job offers my entire professional existence. Rural psychiatrists are NOT common.)
Occam's Tool| 10.5.12 @ 8:49PM
Sorry: "but my experience"
By the way, do you folks have ANY clue about the shortage of boarded psychiatrists outside the cities of LA, SF, Chicago, NYC, and Washington, DC in this country? What I do is not frou-frou---I stabilize guys who threaten to throw themselves off buildings and bridges or who hurt others so thatthey can be safely released back into society and cost you less while being safe. That's my primary job, gang.
Bob K| 10.5.12 @ 1:51PM
It would have been released before the debate if it was actually favorable to Obama. Since it wasn't it is safe to assume that there is something wrong with it. We will know more about this soon.
Pecos Pete| 10.5.12 @ 2:13PM
For those who believe the BLS is not a political entity ... I have some very nice land in the middle of the Mojave Desert for sale. Cheap.
John2| 10.5.12 @ 4:57PM
I have an ocean in the middle of the Mojave Desert for sale. Cheaper.
Well, alright, you got me, they say it was an ocean at one time. Quite a while back. It's the same address as Pecos Pete's property. Hmmmmm...
lsudolemite| 10.5.12 @ 7:30PM
And global warming claims another victim.
Bob Grant| 10.5.12 @ 9:12PM
This is allegedly the largest one month reduction in unemployment in 29 years.
No one believes this is legit.
Even the obamaphone people aren't buying it.