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The Spectacle Blog
A flashback to a CNN article from just before the 2004 election era shows just how unbelievable today’s new unemployment numbers are.
In September 2004, new numbers came out, showing a drop in unemployment from 5.5% to 5.4%. At that time, with a much lower unemployment number than we have today (around 8% today), the increase in new jobs that caused a 0.1% decrease in unemployment was 144,000.
So, let’s get this straight. With 144,000 new jobs in a smaller U.S. population (about 295 million in 2004 vs. about 314 million today), you get a drop in unemployment by 0.1%. But now, 8 years later, with a greater population, you get 114,000 new jobs and, somehow, you get an even larger drop in unemployment: from 8.1% to 7.8%?
That just makes no sense.
It’s like saying that putting 1 gallon of gas into a 10-gallon gas tank constitutes filling 10% of the gas tank in 2004. But putting 3/4 gallon of gas into an even larger, 11-gallon gas tank in 2012 constitutes filling 12% of the gas tank.
Really?
From that same article, John Kerry’s senior economic advisor, Roger Altman, noted his disappointment with the mere 144,000 new jobs for that month in 2004, stating “[y]ou need about 150,000 new jobs a month to keep even with growth in population…. Taken in proper context, it’s just not a very good record.”
In proper context.
Well, in proper context, 144,000 new jobs creating a 0.1% decrease in unemployment in 2004 does not explain how 114,000 new jobs makes for an even larger drop in unemployment with an even larger population in 2012.
If we were really seeing an authentic drop in unemployment, that would be cause for celebration. But these new numbers and their illogical implications represent cause for inquiry and alarm.
View all comments (6) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Robert P. Kirchhoefer
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/10/05/dishonest-unemployment-numbers
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pigdog| 10.5.12 @ 2:39PM
Who cares about jobs?
Keep OBAMA in President!
Trinacria| 10.5.12 @ 3:49PM
I'm as suspicious as the next guy about the magnitude of the decline in light of the anemic number of new jobs. However (while I pretend to no particular expertise in labor statistics) I believe the denominator used in the calculation of the unemployment rate is not the total US population, but the universe of people who are seeking employment (which is why the unemployment rate can actually decline with no net increase in jobs if a significant number of individuals give up and stop looking for work). Therefore, the increase in the population since 2004 isn't necessarily relevant (although it does provide some indication of how many people have just lost hope and thrown in the towel).
John2| 10.5.12 @ 4:46PM
Inquiry and alarm are fine ways to get at the truth, but simple contradicting the liars works more reliably.
Everybody knows what is going on here.
JmsA| 10.5.12 @ 5:42PM
Don't fret folks. Desperation is in the air. This isn't anything other than a Hail-Mary pass, and a crude attempt to change the campaign dynamics following significant reversals. If anything, it will accentuate the administration's obviously dismal performance.
wombat1| 10.5.12 @ 6:02PM
Legacy Media,Crooked Academe and the Democratic Party have been a ménage à trois for the last 40 years at least.
30 days to the election and the unemployment rate magically drops below 8%, except it needs a doctor with a flashlight to figure out where they got the numbers.
Why did they bother staying inside of the facts at all? Why not just make numbers up out of thin air? Announce a 5% increase in employment. In the inimitable Chicago way, count the dead as permanently employed. Why not? They already vote.
Tom Kyba| 10.6.12 @ 1:46PM
Welcome to the world of Purp, also known as Lavender.