Tonight’s debate, which is expected to focus on domestic policy,
may present Mitt Romney with a real opportunity to shift the race
in his favor. Consider this nugget from a
survey conducted for NPR by Resurgent Republic and Democracy
Corps (a Republican and a Democratic firm, respectively), based on
a national poll of registered voters weighted to oversample
battleground-state voters:
Nearly one-quarter of the electorate says what happens
during the Presidential debate could affect their vote, a
percentage significantly higher than those who are still
undecided. President Obama holds a slight edge with
these voters (47 to 43 percent), but this is a subgroup well suited
for Governor Romney. They are more likely to be Independent (45
percent) than Republican (28 percent), or Democrat (26 percent).
Two-thirds feel the country is on the wrong track, a higher
percentage than the national electorate. Majorities disapprove of
President Obama’s job performance and handling of the economy.
Moreover, by 47 to 38 percent, they believe Governor Romney will do
a better job on the economy.
These are the voters Romney needs to connect with. Romney
already has a slight advantage with independents; Obama’s
persistent lead in most polls, including this one, is based on the
apparent durability of Obama’s coalition: Party identification
samples look more like the 2008 electorate, with 7-point Democratic
advantage, than like the partisan parity of the 2004 election or
the 4-point Democratic advantage of the 2000 election. The party ID
gap tightens when polls screen for likely voters (rather than
registered voters), or when pollsters weight to a best guess on
party ID (Rasmussen weights to the party ID results from his last
six weeks of surveys, currently showing a
2-4 point Democratic advantage) but it’s rarely enough to
give Romney better than a tie.
So Romney needs to press his advantage with independents. The
NPR survey tests an argument written by Resurgent Republic,
attacking Obama on his economic record, against an argument written
by Democracy Corps, attacking Romney’s putative economic agenda.
The result? “Voters overall prefer the Democratic statement by 53
to 42 percent. But among critical Independents, the Republican
argument wins by 52 to 44 percent, or 4 points more than the margin
by which Independents currently prefer Romney over Obama.” And then
there’s this:
In May Resurgent Republic tested two arguments, one arguing that
“President Obama’s economic plan is working and we need to stay the
course…” versus “President Obama’s economic plan is not working
and we need to try something different…” “Try something
different” was preferred over “stay the course” by 55 to 40 percent
among all voters, and 63 to 32 percent among Independents. Obama’s
campaign team apparently saw similar numbers, which is why they
changed their argument to be essentially anti-Romney rather than
pro-Obama.
If Romney can put Obama on the defensive over his economic
record, he may just manage to shift the dynamic of the race. But
Romney will also need to play defense without sounding too
defensive himself, particularly regarding the leaked “47%” tape,
which features prominently both in the Democracy Corps-authored
message and in Obama’s ads. Romney had better be ready to parry
that attack.
