1. Obviously, there was no bigger news than Mitt Romney tapping
Paul Ryan to be his running mate. Romney has added to his generally
policy-phobic campaign one of the brightest, most articulate
defenders of a comprehensive fiscal policy in the entire party.
2. For the Ryan pick to work, it must be part of a larger amping
up of the campaign’s message: sharpening and adding meat to the
economic argument against President Obama, presenting a positive
case for a ticket that can rescue the government from Greece-like
insolvency, and pushing back the Democratic narrative that
Republicans don’t understand regular people. Ryan should also be
utilized in discussions of social issues like life, not just
economics. Simply plugging Ryan into the existing campaign will not
work. Too vulnerable to charges that Republicans see people as
numbers on a balance sheet.
3. Expect the Republican ticket to pound hard on the idea that
the Democrats are actually cutting Medicare for current recipients,
which is not what Romney-Ryan are proposing to do. The argument has
the benefit of being true, though there is no guarantee it will
work as it runs counter to the Democrats longstanding image as the
party of Medicare.
4. There have been a lot of comparisons between Romney-Ryan and
Dole-Kemp. I’ve made them myself, but I do think there is one
important distinction. Jack Kemp was well past his prime in 1996:
out of Congress for eight years, didn’t get very far in his 1988
presidential campaign, mostly sidelined in the first Bush
administration, increasingly a conservative hero of the previous
decade like Paul Laxalt or Phil Crane. That’s not a criticism of
any of these men, but it reflects where they were in their
political careers at the time.
Paul Ryan was chosen while he is still a rising figure in the
party and still someone setting the fiscal agenda. Ryan is young
(Kemp was 61 in 1996), has no losing campaigns to his name, and his
vice presidential bid has less of a valedictory feel to it. And I
say that as someone who circa 1994 wanted Kemp on top of the ‘96
ticket. One test for Ryan is whether he can become as popular with
conservative voters as he already is among conservative journalists
and policy analysts.
5. Should Romney talk about the big banks? Taking on “too big to
fail” will help obviate the perceived need for future bailouts, a
political advantage for a Republican ticket with two TARP
supporters. It also lets Romney be populist without violating
free-market principles and play against type.
6. On Tuesday, Wisconsin voters will decide a contentious
Republican primary. The three main candidates are Tommy Thompson,
the longtime former governor and Bush administration HHS secretary
(plus short-term 2008 presidential candidate), businessman Eric
Hovde, and conservative former Congressman Mark Neumann. Thompson
has recently deteroriated from the welfare reform-pioneering
governor of the '80s and '90s to establishment type who has flirted
with everything form embryo-destructive stem-cell research to early
versions of Obamacare. Hovde is hitting everyone else on taxes even
though he hasn’t taken the Taxpayer Protection Pledge. Neumann ran
a widely panned campaign against Scott Walker, who has proven
conservative enough.
