The American Spectator

1. Next week could be the most consequential of Barack Obama’s presidency. The Supreme Court is set to rule on both the Affordable Care Act and the administration’s lawsuit against the Arizona immigration law. The full House may vote on whether to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress over Operation Fast and Furious. This week is also go-time on federal student loans and expiring highway projects. Defeats on even one or two of these issues could have serious reprecussions for Obama in November.

2. There is only one potential upside for Obama if the Affordable Care Act is struck down: it could get reticent businesses hiring again.

3. Last week, Mitt Romney unveiled the basics of his approach to immigration. It’s clear that he wants to thread the needle by offering the following contrast with Obama: he wants to be fair to those who come legally without unduly rewarding those who cut in line; he wants to stress the law and border security without evincing blanket hostility to immigrants. But I wonder if his plan contains all the political downsides of Obama’s — more work permits for foreign workers at a time of high unemployment — without the upside of galvanizing Hispanic activists. Republicans sometimes get themselves into bidding wars they can’t win.

4. This Sean Trende piece is probably the best synopsis of the state of the presidential race I’ve seen. At the moment, there are plausible paths to victory for both candidates.

5. Darrell Issa is predicting a bipartisan contempt vote against Holder. Unlike at the committee level, I expect at least some Democrats to vote against the attorney general. But I’d be surprised by substantial defections.

6. The last presidential primary of the 2012 cycle will be held in Utah on Tuesday. Romney would have posted an easy victory even if this was still a competitive race.