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The Spectacle Blog
Does Barack Obama have a black voter problem? A new survey by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Obama losing black support in North Carolina. The poll found Mitt Romney winning 20 percent of North Carolina’s black vote to Obama’s 76 percent. While still a Democratic landslide, Obama beat John McCain by 95 percent to 5 percent among these voters in 2008. In PPP’s May poll, Obama was beating Romney 87 percent to 11 percent.
Obama’s African-American approval rating in North Carolina has also taken a relative beating, dropping from 86 percent to 77 percent while Romney’s favorability has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent. A possible explanation is same-sex marriage, which the state’s black voters opposed by a wide margin but the president has since announced he supports.
There are two problems with this poll, however. First, the sample size is such that PPP polling analyst Jim Williams told Business Insider it could be “statistical noise.” Only 200 blacks were polled. I can think of other polls with small minority sample sizes that have reported disproportionately large minority support for GOP candidates. Secondly, this slide in black support has yet to be corroborated by any other state or national poll. The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza pushes back hard against drawing any conclusions from this poll, using charts and everything.
That said, it wouldn’t take much of a dip among black voters to hurt Obama. If black turnout is closer to the 11 percent of the electorate it was in 2004 than the 13 percent it was in 2008, or if black support for the Democratic ticket is closer to 85 percent than 95 percent, it could make a big difference. Our friend James Taranto reminds us of his 2008 prediction that a Republican presidential candidate will win at least 30 percent of the black vote by 2028.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/06/13/are-black-voters-cooling-to-ob
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JD| 6.13.12 @ 12:04PM
The WSJ article on this poll included the following quote:
"Still, the PPP pollsters suggested the finding among African Americans could be somewhat of an aberration. “That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama,” they said in a release accompanying the poll."
What kind of racism/narcissism does it take to complain that Obama's vote share is "unrealistically low" when it's 76-20 in Obama's favor?
Bob Grant| 6.13.12 @ 12:28PM
It's called reality a.k.a. statistical common sense.
He'll get his 95-98% of the vote because they ALLLWAYYsss fall in line.
They are, without question, the most monolithic voting block in this country and perhaps the World...perhaps in history!!
These are easy votes for Democrats to throw in their column, by default...and without effort.
Don't let this article give you false hope. When the dog whistle sounds, they'll act. The only hope for Romney is some might sit the election out for lack of enthusiasm but only if someone forgets to order them to be enthusiastic.
Ryan| 6.13.12 @ 1:02PM
A 95% vote combined with a depressed turnout would actually be pretty damaging, and may swing some states in our direction. If he loses 1-3% of the black vote, it's NOT good for him.
AllAmericanAmerican| 6.13.12 @ 2:44PM
Obama is literally Jesus to black folks. I would wager in most black homes there are pics of MLK, Malcolm X, and now Obammy (all in "deep thought" with their fists curled under their chins I'm sure). That is their Father, Son, and Holy Ghost. Blacks won't bail on Obammy---they're more tribal than reasonable.
JD| 6.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Black people are not all like that. Don't make us look bad by saying that.
AllAmericanAmerican| 6.13.12 @ 4:44PM
JD I don't have to "make" you look bad---you guys do a good enough job of it on your own. Case in point---I am retired AF and I live near an AF base as my wife finishes out her commitment. After the 2008 election a kiosk in the PX/BX area went up selling all kinds of Obama velvet paintings (him alone in posed described, him and Michelle), Obama hats, Obama t-shirts, Obama bumper stickers, Obama pennants, etc etc etc. Some of the paintings looked damn near religious is depicting Obama at the top of a mountain with the sun rays behind him like some sort of ascending god looking over his kingdom.
The 2-3% of blacks who DON'T vote D or who DON'T view Obama as their messiah are simply the exception that proves the rule.
Occam's Tool| 6.13.12 @ 7:02PM
Well, G-d Bless You, JD.
The point is to lower Democratic turnout due to voter fatigue. This will be most useful among Democratic Jews, Blacks, and Hispanics.
I, personally, think the percentage will be the same but the turnout will be MUCH lower. Does anyone think Obama can fill huge stadiums anymore? If he went to Chicago and spoke in Grant Park, would there be huge crowds, like 2008?
Bob Grant| 6.13.12 @ 7:46PM
OC,
Obama Stash is a powerful weapon. Open up the spigot and BOOM, you've got yourself a rather large block party. Fifty thou minimum.