1. The biggest political news story of the next week will be the
recall election in Wisconsin. Republican Gov. Scott Walker is the
overwhelming favorite to win, as he is ahead in the polling
averages by better than six points. It will only be close if unions
get the electorate to resemble the turnout models assumed in
Democratic polls. It’s notable that President Barack Obama has
declined to make a campaign swing to help out the Democratic
candidate, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.
John Ellis
writes about the national implications:
The crude calculation is this: Walker defeat equals certain
Obama win in November. Walker win by 1-5 percentage points equals
very close presidential general election (nationally). A Walker win
by 6 points or more equals Mitt Romney is the favorite to win in
November.
All that seems fair, though I could see Wisconsin potentially
skewing to the left of the nation even in this election.
2. Last week the First Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston held
that a key part of the Defense of Marriage Act, denying same-sex
couples access to certain federal benefits because marriage is
defined as a union between a man and a woman, was unconstitutional.
Like the Proposition 8 appeals, this is likely to be resolved by
the Supreme Court. Even with a Republican majority, a Roe v.
Wade of gay marriage isn’t impossible. In fact, I’d say it’s
at least as likely as Obamacare’s reversal.
3. The Louisiana Republican State Convention showcased the kinds
of divisions between Ron Paul supporters and other Republicans that
the GOP will want to avoid in Tampa. There was pushing, shoving,
injuries, and
arrests. All’s well that ends well, however. Paul campaign
manager John Tate said in a statement: “Despite the divisiveness
that characterized the Louisiana state convention initially, we are
thankful that the Paul and Romney campaigns took the high road to
guarantee the enfranchisement of Republicans whose candidate
preferences differ.”
4. Not even Obama’s Sunday talk show host surrogates could
soft-pedal the Friday jobs report. “Disappointing” was David
Axelrod’s term. “Unacceptably low” was Steven Rattner’s
description. “The issue is that we’re not adding jobs fast enough,”
said Stephanie Cutter. Commentary’s Jonathan Tobin is
right that Obama’s plans to ape Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection
strategy has gone
out the window.
5. Fresh from his presidential juggernaut, Texas Gov. Rick Perry
is lashing out at the outside conservative groups who are
supporting Ted Cruz for Senate over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. From
the
Associated Press:
“There are a lot of out-of-state interest groups — whether it’s
Club For Growth, whether its senators who have interest in being
the next minority or majority leader in the United States Senate —
there’s a whole lot of people who don’t intimately and expertly
know how Texas operates that have come in and endorsed in this
race,” Perry said. “I respect each one of those individuals, but
they don’t know anything about how Texas works.”
“If they did,” he added, “they would be endorsing David
Dewhurst.”
Perry and Dewhurst haven’t always seen eye-to-eye in the past,
but the runoff is becoming a proxy war for the Texas GOP primary
electorate.
