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The Spectacle Blog
I wrote about TAS alumni Phil Klein’s new Mitt Romney ebook on the main site. One point I didn’t get to bring up was Phil’s rebuttal to a popular big-government conservative argument: that the Medicare prescription drug benefit and No Child Left Behind got George W. Bush reelected, and therefore we have those expansions of government to thank for John Roberts and Sam Alito. (Of course, without conservative pressure we might have ended up with Alberto Gonzales and Harriet Miers, but be that as it may.)
Phil writes:
Despite the passage of No Child Left Behind and the Medicare prescription drug bill, Bush actually did worse among voters who considered education and health care their most important issues in his 2004 reelection campaign than he did in his 2000 run. According to CNN exit polls, those voters who identified education as the issue that “mattered most,” favored Al Gore over Bush by a spread of 52 percent to 44 percent. Yet four years later, John Kerry trounced President Bush among voters who thought education was most important, by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. Similarly, in 2000, Gore had a 64 percent to 33 percent advantage among health care voters; in 2004 Kerry was favored by a margin of 77 percent to 23 percent. Keep in mind, this was even though Bush’s overall percentage of the popular vote increased in 2004.
It’s not even clear that Medicare Part D was the chief reason for Bush’s gains among senior citizens. As Phil points out in his ebook, 21 percent of seniors cited moral values as their top issue and another 19 percent picked terrorism. Only 12 percent named controlling health care costs.
View all comments (12) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/05/24/refuting-compassionate-conserv
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C Bowen | 5.24.12 @ 5:17PM
Mr. Antle;
I read a fair amount of political material, and I am not quite familiar with who attempted the argument (outside maybe a snide Fred Barnes) that Medicare Part D and NCLB earned key swing voters.
Most of the consensus material I have read credited re-election on a Rovian direct mail campaign in the Rust Belt that Kerry was going to take their Bibles away, coupled with strategically timed anti-gay marriage referendums on ballots.
Who are you or Mr. Klein referring to?
M. DeFrance| 5.24.12 @ 5:29PM
Although I wish it were not true, the numbers Klein-Antle quote support a conclusion opposite from theirs. Those numbers suggest that in 2004 Bush pealed off health/education moderates, leaving Kerry with health/education extremists. Klein-Antle erroneously assume that within an opinion group, there is a unitary position, not a range of positions.
C Bowen | 5.24.12 @ 5:56PM
What would such numbers mean in the context that 70% of Republicans thought, absurdly, that Saddam was behind 9/11 according to polling?
M. DeFrance| 5.24.12 @ 6:30PM
Their thought was not absurd just incorrect, but to answer your question: some may have believed only funding was involved, some may have believed funding and planning, and some may have believed funding, planning, and staffing. In addition, those Republicans may have put different degrees of probablity on their beliefs.
M. DeFrance| 5.24.12 @ 6:36PM
My post above replies to Bowen.
C Bowen | 5.24.12 @ 7:42PM
My point was closer to the limitations of self reporting surveys, particularly during a time period where Republicans rationalized their support for Bush's invasion.
That is, in for a dime, in for a dollar.
michaelzlee| 5.25.12 @ 5:09AM
By learning from "Penny Health" When it comes to medical insurance, never use the words "experimental" or "investigational" or tell them that you want them to pay for a clinical trial.
Pittsburgh Pete| 5.25.12 @ 9:23AM
Bush's decision to impose unconscionable tariffs on imported steel (later rescinded) won him Pennsylvania. That was the big cahuna.
Bob| 5.25.12 @ 10:15AM
Kerry's '04 mistake was picking Edwards as his running mate. He should have picked Gephardt. Gephardt would have won Missouri and Iowa hence giving Kerry the electoral victory. Damn...what a beautiful piece of revenge that would have been. GOPuke creepo W. winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. Damn again...almost.
C Bowen| 5.26.12 @ 4:58PM
Why the Democrats picked a pro-Iraq War Skull N Bones man to run against a pro-Iraq War Skull N Bones Man, one can only speculate...
Oldefarte| 5.25.12 @ 10:43PM
OMG, and to think that we might have ended up instead with the POTUS ....CRAZED SEX-POODLE!!!!!!!!!!!
sweeterjan| 5.28.12 @ 2:41AM
Kerry's '04 mistake was picking Edwards as his running mate. He should have picked Gephardt. Gephardt would have http://www.vendreshox.com/nike-shox-r3-c-8.html won Missouri and Iowa hence giving Kerry the electoral victory. Damn...what a beautiful piece of revenge that would have been. GOPuke creepo W. winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. Damn again...almost