Paul Ryan
says he’s “nervous” about the upcoming recall election in his
home state of Wisconsin:
Ryan told editors and reporters of The Washington
Examiner that the race between Walker and Tom Barrett,
the Democratic mayor of Milwaukee, will be close despite a poll
released Wednesday by Marquette Law School that shows Walker
leading by a comfortable 6 percentage points.
“I’m nervous about it because this is [about] execution, this is
turnout, this is too close to call,” Ryan told The
Examiner. “But I would rather be Scott Walker than Tom Barrett
at this point.”
While it’s always good to refrain from counting one’s unhatched
chickens, Congressman Ryan can calm his nerves a bit. Including
Marquette Law’s, there have been four
polls taken since last week’s primary, and all show Walker in
the lead by between 4 and 9 points.
Last week Dave Weigel visited Wisconsin and marveled at the
broad coalition of enthusiastic Walker supporters,
writing that the Walker campaign “is what every Republican
presidential candidate tried and failed to build. There’s a perfect
link-up here between Tea Party, Republican Party, and megadonor.”
Walker and his allies have a significant financial advantage, and
Wisconsin Democrats are
complaining that the Democratic National Committee and the
Obama campaign aren’t giving them any help. (Commentary’s
Jonathan Tobin
suspects that Democrats at the national level see the race as a
lost cause.)
The recall fight began with a fight over the power of public
sector unions, but the Democrats aren’t even trying to run on that
cause anymore. As Brett Healy of the Madison-based MacIver
Institute tells Weigel, “I must assume that the left has done
some polling and their data shows that the public isn’t with them
on those issues.” Instead, Barrett has tried to lean on a Bureau of
Labor Statistics survey suggesting that Wisconsin has lost jobs
during Walker’s tenure.
But the much more comprehensive Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages released this week shows that Wisconsin has
actually gained jobs since Walker took office, and there’s little
question the latter report is more accurate; it’s a comprehensive
analysis of information from nearly every employer in the state,
whereas the BLS survey captures only about 3.5% of employers (as
anyone who has ever followed employment data from the BLS knows,
their numbers are often revised after an initial estimates).
Barrett has claimed that Walker would “cook the books” to show a
rosier picture, but as John McCormack
explains at the Weekly Standard, that’s an absurd
charge — the chief economist at the agency that prepared the data
signed a petition to recall Walker, so it seems doubtful that he’s
doing the governor’s bidding.
Walker quickly cut an ad touting
the new data, taunting his opponent: “Mayor Barrett, you said this
election’s about jobs. I couldn’t agree more.” With the argument
over jobs favoring Walker, it’s hard to see how an underfunded
Barrett can mount an effective attack to close the gap; the unions’
ground organization might be worth a point or two, but not five or
six. Perhaps something will change in the next three weeks, and the
governor’s supporters certainly shouldn’t be complacent, but right
now all signs point toward a Walker victory.
