Ron Paul has announced he will no longer devote resources to
contesting the remaining primaries, but wasn’t dropping out of the
race or suspending his campaign. Paul would continue to try to
accumulate delegates at state and local Republican conventions,
with the intention of bringing as many as possible to the national
convention in Tampa.
On the one hand, this decision makes sense in terms of spending
money wisely. Paul has been beating Mitt Romney at many state
conventions and grabbing delegates even when he comes up short.
Paul isn’t likely to beat Romney in any of the remaining primaries
and neither the polling nor the first post-Santorum-and-Gingrich
contests showed Paul consolidating the anti-Romney vote the way he
did in Virginia on Super Tuesday. This also will soften the blow of
a weak showing in Texas, Paul’s home state, or Kentucky, where Rand
Paul is the junior senator.
On the other hand, when your campaign is having its first
sustained success since the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire
primary, why send signals that could demoralize the foot soldiers?
Paul will still need his supporters to turn out in large numbers
for the conventions and to donate to his money bombs. Will his
supporters be as motivated if they are conceding primaries,
suggesting (as his campaign chairman did today on a conference
call) that they can’t block Romney in Tampa, and saying there is
“no chance” Paul will endorse Libertarian Party nominee Gary
Johnson?
Although Paul failed to finish first in the popular vote in any
of the caucuses, he has succeeded in getting the most delegates out
of some states. To that extent, the delegate strategy has been
paying dividends. But there is a question of what to do with the
delegates. And one wonders if campaign prioritized process over
momentum. If Paul had finished ahead of Rick Santorum in both South
Carolina (which was doable) and Florida (which admittedly may not
have been doable), it could have knocked Santorum out of the race.
Even though there was no scenario where Paul was going to win
Florida’s delegates, he could have gotten more delegates in total
— and had more momentum — in a Santorum-less race.
UPDATE: Yes, Ron Paul did win the popular vote
in the Virgin Islands.