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The Spectacle Blog
Over at Mother Jones, Adam Serwer cites polling data that suggests Republicans shouldn’t expect a lot of black votes over the president’s embrace of gay marriage. First he looks at Pew numbers showing that 68 percent of black Americans say their views of Barack Obama were unaffected and an earlier survey showing a drop in black opposition to same-sex marriage since 2004. Serwer continues:
Perhaps even more indicative of the direction black voters are heading, a Washington Post/ABC poll released Tuesday shows a larger percentage of whites (48 percent) disapproving of Obama’s decision than blacks (37 percent) despite the fact that polls have consistently shown black voters more opposed to marriage equality on average. The fifty-seven percent of black voters who approve are even more likely to approve strongly (31 percent) of Obama’s decision than the population as a whole (28 percent).
Serwer is undoubtedly right that Mitt Romney will net very few black votes from Obama’s flip-flop. My guess is that Obama’s percentage of the black vote won’t look much different than in 2008. But if the race remains close, Obama won’t just need the same percentage. He will need black turnout to be comparable to what it was four years ago. Here is where I think in a tight contest the issue could hurt him at the margins with blacks: some number of black pastors and churches will not work as hard, or at all, to get out the vote.
Not a huge number, mind you, and there will be a lot of factors that are more important to whether Obama is reelected in November. But if we are headed toward a 2000/2004-style squeaker, it could make some difference.
View all comments (24) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/05/15/obama-gay-marriage-and-the-bla
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Questions| 5.15.12 @ 3:15PM
Romney ought to run some targeted ads, on black radio stations and black television and shows frequented by black voters, asking them point blank if this is what they thought they were getting four years ago.
Is this obama's claim to fame, the first black president and the first president to openly and publicly embrace a lifestyle blacks deride as "the down low?"
This doesn't mean those voters will embrace Romney. But Romney can increase the disenchantment level sharply, and precisely with those voters the Democrats need with a turnout level exceeding 90%.
Just think too of the satisfaction level amongst our own rank and file knowing that Romney is targeting obama's base, and making obama pay a dear price for pandering and positioning.
Mike 3/505| 5.15.12 @ 4:05PM
Spot on!
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 4:11PM
Yeah, cause we know any group that votes en masse for a candidate who is "one of them" responds to facts and rational argument.
Questions| 5.15.12 @ 4:45PM
You missed the point.
Democrats have to have, HAVE TO HAVE a turnout level exceeding 90% amongst black Americans. Otherwise obama goes down in flames, and the shakeout all down the ballot will be catastrophic for them.
This issue isn't going to get 10% of the black vote to not turnout and "keep it real" for obama and urban pathology. BUT if only 2% of the black vote fails to show for this reason, or for any reason for that matter, ---------------- obama will be blown out of the water, and the hopes of that sick party right along with him.
Now do you understand?
Be mindful too that unemployment for black men aged 18 to 30 EXCEEDS 50%, now throw in obama's embrace of the sickness of down low, we just might see a decreased energy amongst his keep it real crowd.
Wouldn't that be a sweet irony and a fitting dethronement of this sick fraud, obama!
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 7:18PM
No, sport; you missed the point.
The comment was in response to the suggestion that Romney target the black community in a series of ads in which they are asked if they were getting what they thought they were getting four years ago. The flaw in this strategy is that it assumes facts not in evidence; namely, that the black community actually gave any "thought" to their choice or what they would be getting. Moreover, it further assumes that the same community that swore blind allegiance to a demonstrably unqualified, unprepared, underwhelming and, frankly, marginally witted candidate on the sole basis of his physical likeness is capable of applying resolute critical discernment in their assessment of his job performance to date and, by extension, the likelihood of a successful second term.
They don't need Romney to tell them that their lives suck; they already know that - the relevant question for them is "who is responsible?" (because, of course, THEY are clearly never responsible for their own circumstances). Now - try to keep up - here's where your argument goes off the rails: A wealthy white mormon runs an ad saying their Messiah is responsible for their present circumstances; their Messiah and his army of race hustlers counter with their time-tested meme that "whitey" has blocked him from implementing his policies (which would have otherwise made their lives a joyous playland complete with an unlimited supply of malt liquor and gubmint checks). You can put your money on the former; I'll bet the latter every time.
Questions| 5.15.12 @ 7:38PM
The idea that blacks voted for obama without any notion whatsoever at what they would be getting is falsified by the endless video of blacks ecstatic about obama prevailing because then they wouldn't have to pay their mortgage, then they wouldn't have to buy their gas or their medical coverage.
So no, they too, just like everybody else, had expectations, and those expectations jar with their present reality.
Which means there is a vulnerability because of the chasm between the messianic expectations he projected, and the record of utter failure he delivered.
Again, you seem to be speaking about moving numbers as a whole. Which I'm not proposing. All I'm saying is that the disenchantment w/in black America already exists, and that Romney can play on that and work it to his advantage. Everybody knows the crushing conformity in black America will probably drive turnout numbers in his favour of over 80%, all because of the pressure to keep it real.
But between 80% and 90% lies a 10% that ordinarily doesn't participate in elections, doesn't vote reliably in presidential election cycles either.
Democrats have gone to the well of blaming whitey for years now, decades and decades of endless scapegoating and finger pointing. That scapegoating was ALWAYS going to occur, regardless of whether Romney tries to blunt the level of energy amongst the black vote.
Romney is going to get pasted as a pasty face white guy regardless, regardless of what ads he runs, regardless of what he says, to black Americans or whoever.
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 8:09PM
"Democrats have gone to the well of blaming whitey for years now, decades and decades of endless scapegoating and finger pointing. "
And blacks have bought it hook, line, and sinker everytime - in clear contradistinction to the outcomes. The clearest sign of a marginal intellect is a failure to learn from repeated mistakes - upon what evidence does one draw the conclusion that this time will be different?
Questions| 5.16.12 @ 1:20PM
Yes, they have. Blacks went from a reliable Republican constituency to a reliable Democrat constituency.
All indications suggest that blacks will keep it real for obama. The cultural conformity in black America might be described as at its zenith. And as Thomas Sowell observed, something of an unmentioned, unreported race war is actually going on, where scores of black youth tear off after Asians, Hispanic and especially Caucasians.
And who believes some idiot like Charles Barkley could possibly be persuaded to vote for anybody other than their glorious, messianic failure?
Yes, the situation is as bad as you describe ---------- AND WORSE!
The evidence is somewhat faith based, --- any other group in a similar plight would be disinclined to reelect.
PCC| 5.16.12 @ 8:37AM
Yes, that's right. President Obama's position on gay rights will hurt him in terms of African-American turnout, but not the overall percentage of that demographic, and it will hurt him in the Carolinas, Virginia and Ohio, too. He and his advisors have made a mistake in seeking short-term liberal funding at the expense of November electoral votes.
DC| 5.15.12 @ 4:08PM
The Romney campaign could have authenticated video of Maobama buggering little african boys, and feeding little black girls into a wood chipper, while his vile, racist "wife" mixed up a potion with the effluent--and it wouldn't change a damn thing. 90+% of blacks will vote for their tribal leader, period. Doesn't matter what he says, what he does, or how much he lies. He's the leader of the tribe, that's all that matters. For the same reason, smoking crack with whores didn't sink Marion Barry's political career in D.C. Even today, he would be elected in a landslide for any office in D.C. government. "The bitch set me up," was his famous defense. Saint Barack the Mocha Messiah doesn't even bother to defend himself--he knows he doesn't have to.
So what if blacks hate/deride queers? As long as he's their totem, they'll smoke his pole. Simple and pathetic.
So, BOHICA, black voters--if you're lucky, you won't get what you deserve.
ncatty| 5.15.12 @ 4:12PM
Yep, he will get the same percentage turnout and the same percentage vote from black voters. That will not be true for independents and others.
Black Voter| 5.15.12 @ 4:15PM
Obama's position on gay marriage doesn't bother me (but keep it on the down low...).
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 4:16PM
Word.
DC| 5.15.12 @ 4:28PM
Of course it doesn't, for the reasons I outlined above. He's your tribal totem, end of story. Tell us, what would he have to do to turn the black vote against him? Is there anything? Other than saying he doesn't despise whites and Asians, believes in objective reality, merit, personal responsibility, capitalism, the U.S. Constitution, killing the enemies of this country, etc.--none of which is plausible. Just wondering.
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 4:36PM
Satire, DC. Look it up.
DC| 5.15.12 @ 4:41PM
Satire is, when communicated clearly, funny. Nothing about Antle's post, or your attempts at satire, are.
You want a tribalist society "governed" by a fascist african dictator? You'll be lucky not to get one. When Dear Leader's Tontons Macoutes (look it up) come for you, how do you expect to defend yourself? With weak satire? Good luck.
Trinacria| 5.15.12 @ 7:34PM
By way of clarification, sport, I made no attempt at satire, as I recognize the risk inherent in assuming that the audience possesses the requisite intellect (a risk, I hasten to add, that you've quite capably demonstrated). On the contrary, I merely pointed out that the comment to which you were responding was - quite clearly - not a serious comment nor intended as such. It is clear from both the tone and the content of your response that in your haste to demonstrate your superior intellect you failed to recognize the comment as a joke.
Now - I suppose it is theoretically possible that there is a logical connection between my attempt to suggest that you missed the joke and a profound, deeply ingraned desire to be part of a" tribalist society governed by a fascist african dictator" who will dispatch his "Tontons Macoutes" (sorry, sport, didn't need to look it up) to come after me. I don't see it, but I remain open to the possibility - how about you get back to me when you find it?
Questions| 5.15.12 @ 4:47PM
BV,
That's not the only thing obama has been keeping on the down low.................... he knows more than a thing or two about that lifestyle, and the drugs that lifestyle prefers...............
Brandt Hardin | 5.15.12 @ 5:00PM
Religious groups and the GOP have suppressed the rights of the Gay and Lesbian community for FAR too long. It was about time a public official like Obama stood up for this human rights issue while Mitt Romney hides behind Red State Religion and his Magic Mormon Underwear. See Mitt in his sacred undergarments praying for enough money to buy this election so he can spread his bigotry and homophobia at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.....rwear.html
spike59| 5.16.12 @ 6:20AM
screeching about YOUR group being oppressed would make more sense WITHOUT spewing the obligatory Leftist religious hatred
Ken (Old Texican)| 5.15.12 @ 5:06PM
One election win for Obama signaled simple naivete on the part of Americans.
Should he be re-elected, it will signal a civil war....or an impeachment.
One example: black-market medical care will become the norm. Those of us able will sit down and not incur taxes.
Derek Leaberry| 5.15.12 @ 5:27PM
In 1983, many conservatives soured on Reagan and the chorus dirge was "Let Reagan be Reagan." Yet they all voted for Reagan in 1984. Barack Obama will win 99.9% of the blacks who voted for him in 2008 due to tribal loyalty.
In 2010 when everyone else revolted against the Obama agenda, the blacks stayed loyal. For instance, in Prince George's County MD(the wealthiest majority-black jurisdiction in the nation) huge signs with the One lined the major thoroughfares and the wordage was- WE HAVE YOUR BACK, PRESIDENT OBAMA! And they will have his back in November.
Greg| 5.15.12 @ 8:52PM
Blacks voted 90% for George McGovern,Mondale and Dukakis.
Questions| 5.16.12 @ 7:31PM
A new piece of information has come to light, which casts additional light on the subject.
Obama Defense Department has just ordered Service Chaplains to preside over the nuptials of gay service members, regardless of whether or not such presiding offends their religious conscience.
As I remarked upon earlier, ------------- this has got nothing to do with toleration.
This is all about ramming something down the throat of Uncle Sam, whether he wants it or not.
This is the first opening salvos of a war, an American Kulturkampf, against organized Christianity, when seen in conjunction with the requirements about Health Care found in Obama's new law, it leaves little doubt about what the Left has in mind for observing Jews and Christians in this country.