President Obama’s slow evolution to supporting gay marriage took
a rapid turn today when his Number Two Joe Biden decided to think
out loud earlier this week. The long and the short of it is that
President Obama has come out of the closet on this issue far ahead
of schedule.
Meanwhile over at The Weekly Standard, Elliot
Abrams argues
that Obama hasn’t evolved on the issue at all but rather has gone
back and forth on the issue going back to his 1996 campaign for the
Illinois State Senate when he indicated his support for same sex
marriage on a questionnaire. As Abrams puts it, “To paraphrase John
Kerry, he was for it before he was against it before he was for it
again.”
Now I happen to support same sex marriage. But Obama is only
supporting it because it is now politically expedient for him to do
so. Obama has been perfectly happy to jerk gay rights activists
around during his time in the White House. He did so
first with DADT (before repealing it following the 2010
mid-terms) and until today he did the same with gay marriage. Obama
did it because he could. He knows full well they aren’t going to
vote Republican. But at the same time he also knows they could stay
home on the first Tuesday of November and Obama can’t take that
risk especially after Biden opened his mouth. So now Obama has
given them reason to go to the ballot box.
I imagine that Team Obama has come to the conclusion that there
is more reward than risk in taking a public stance in favor of gay
marriage. Some think it strange that Obama would come out in favor
of gay marriage after it took such a drubbing last night in North
Carolina, a crucial swing state. It could be the case though that
Obama’s team might have already written off North Carolina
notwithstanding the Democratic National Convention and may be
setting their sights on other states like Florida, Nevada and
Ohio.
Yet it could also be the case that they are betting that voters
in North Carolina who were in favor of banning same sex marriage
aren’t necessarily going to vote for Mitt Romney. I mean even
voters in Maine rejected same sex marriage in 2009 by a comfortable
margin despite its passage in the legislature (and could do so
again this November). Yet no one seriously thinks that Romney has a
snowball’s chance in hell of winning the Pine Tree State. As for
North Carolina, I am sure Team Obama doesn’t believe black voters
will abandon him even if he does support same sex marriage.
But let’s say Obama loses in November. He has a ready made
excuse for his defeat. Obama can say that the forces of darkness
(i.e. opponents of gay marriage) are to blame for his defeat while
patting himself on the back for his “courage” in supporting same
sex marriage. It also helps to position him for a comeback in 2016
or 2020. Make no mistake. If Obama loses this fall it won’t be the
last we see of him. By that time with a greater presence of voters
born after 1980 chances are there will be more voters in favor of
gay marriage which would give Obama an opportunity to claim he was
ahead of the curve.
So while Obama might have come out in favor of gay marriage far
sooner than he wanted to do so. But now that he has come out of the
closet on the issue it could work to his advantage if not in this
election then perhaps in the next one or the one after
that.
