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The Spectacle Blog
On Sunday, elections were held in France and in Greece. And although the French, who have a large economy, elected a Socialist, the real — and most dangerous — news of the day came from the Greek election in which voters gave strong support, though not a majority, to parties of the extreme left and extreme right, at the expense of the long-ruling parties which had supported recent austerity measures and other efforts to get international bailouts.
The Greek election could be deeply unstabilizing for Europe, not because Greece is in itself a big economic problem for those outside of Greece, even if it defaulted on its debt. Instead, the problem is that it will harm the courage of other nation’s leaders — such as in Portugal, Spain, and Ireland — to make the difficult decisions necessary to get their budgets under control.
To be sure, people get the governments they deserve, and that will happen to Greece “in spades”, especially as they support far-right parties who are literally screaming for foreigners to leave the country. The head of the far-right Golden Dawn party is quoted as saying “The time for fear has come for those who betrayed this homeland.”
In the meantime, I expect markets to react somewhat badly, which will include a slightly rising US dollar — meaning (on the bright side) that oil prices will fall and (on the downside for those who have investments in gold and silver) that metals (along with other commodities prices) will also fall. Early indications for the US market are for modest weakness — which is far better than how things looked on Sunday night. One thing to keep in mind is that these election results, especially in France, were expected, and that a lot of traders have short positions on, which will tend to support the market on any sell-off. If the market wants to climb a wall of worry, they now have an even bigger wall.
For traders in financial markets, it’s time to hold on to your seat belts. And for would-be tourists, I recommend avoiding Greece.
All this said, there are a couple of mitigating factors for Greece and markets: First, since there is no majority — and not even a viable coalition — it is somewhat likely that new elections will be needed sooner rather than later, perhaps within a few months. Second, although a majority of Greeks claim to support being in the Euro, it is possible that Sunday’s elections are the first step on a path toward Greece’s exiting the European currency, which would actually strengthen it, weaken the USD, and be good for stocks and commodities. That, however, if it were to happen, would (in my opinion) take until at least early next year and will be accompanied by at least modest turmoil following an effective Greek default on their debt.
And as far as France goes, don’t forget that while Sarkozy was talking austerity (especially for others), the French budgets he proposed had little in the way of spending cuts, and the new Socialist is unlikely to spend substantially more.
Both of these countries, namely their ignorant, dependent voters, are getting just what they deserve. The big question is how much the rest of us will also have to suffer.
View all comments (22) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/05/07/the-governments-they-deserve
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JimH| 5.7.12 @ 9:33AM
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.
~ H. L. Mencken
Bill| 5.7.12 @ 10:23AM
Socialism is back. We have to be vigilant, and Obama must be defated 'cause we cannot afford another 4 years of Marxism.
aware| 5.7.12 @ 4:20PM
This is fascism, Bill, not Marxism.
Occam's Tool| 5.7.12 @ 11:57AM
In 2008, I noted in commentary in Medscape repeatedly that Europe was a Dead Man Walking, and was pooh-poohed for my comments.
I am actually counting on it. I see Mitt being elected, taxes being pushed low, the dollar getting stronger, our economy improving (as I expect a Republican Congress, as well). But, thanks to the Europeans, I also expect gold to go still higher.
The Europeans are assholes. Let them fail. We CAN go it alone, and beat off the Islamists with the alliues we have.
Al Adab| 5.7.12 @ 4:28PM
O/T:
There is one potential benefit to the U S here. If the Euro continues to fall it makes the dollar look good. Sadly that probably means Obie-one gets credit. Still there may be a caveat hidden inside or as they say, "Beware of Greeks bearing gifts".
Sorry it was too good to pass up.
Bob S| 5.7.12 @ 9:33PM
Better if Obie-one gets credit for Europe failing. Hopefully after that, the Europeans won't be so enamored with liberals in the US and liberals in the US will be disillusioned with Europeans shunning them.
Sheila| 5.7.12 @ 1:09PM
God, you right-liberals are such pansies. Golden Dawn gets a grand 7% of the vote and Kaminsky screams "Nazis!! NAZIS!!"
Chris (the second one)| 5.7.12 @ 3:26PM
Actually the worst he could say was that they were demanding that foreigners leave. Considering that Greece, like everywhere else, has been having problems with the folks practicing the religion of peace, I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing. It's their country, if they want the visitors to leave, so be it.
Al Adab| 5.7.12 @ 4:53PM
Sheila:
The Bolshevics were a minority splinter party too
The National Socialists were a minority splinter party too.
What matters is whether such a party honors the rule of law or is so intent upon power that the ends justify the means. We could ask the same question about the modern DEM party in this country.
Red Phillips | 5.7.12 @ 2:31PM
"especially as they support far-right parties who are literally screaming for foreigners to leave the country."
Yeah, we wouldn't want any of those throwbacks who think Greece should actually be for Greeks. Such anachronistic attitudes stand in the way of the world neo-liberal Utopia.
Typical Davos Man Kaminsky thinking.
Simon Templar| 5.7.12 @ 2:46PM
"far-right Golden Dawn party"
I think it would do your readers a great service if you qualified and more clearly identified who the Golden Dawn are rather than just labeling them 'far right.'
The Golden Dawn are national socialist of the stripe that you have traditionally seen in Europe that are firmly grounded in socialism and nationalism. There are two political orientations in most of Europe and they do not equate with the Left and Right as defined here in the US. Well, at least with what we define as Right and far right here in the US.
To us conservatives, Ross, there are socialist and there are socialist; we give a rats ass whether they are national socialist or international socialist. For American conservatives both are detestable philosophies and utterly incomparable and incompatible with anything a conservative believes.
aware| 5.7.12 @ 4:32PM
"...and (on the downside for those who have investments in gold and silver) that metals (along with other commodities prices) will also fall."
You don't "invest" in metals, you insure with them. "Investors" is as big a joke as thinking we still have a "market". We don't have a market, we have 1.8 trillion bucks of funny money sloshing around. Nothing is real anymore and you are chasing nickels in front of a steamroller. Mashing will occur when arrogance reaches peak.
The collapse of the dollar is certain and will happen faster than "investors" will react. Silver under $30 means add stacks. Repeat until "government" begins to act sanely and lawfully.
Oldefarte| 5.7.12 @ 5:00PM
As the idiot VPOTUS once stated, THIS FRENCH ELECTION IS A BFD! I'm surprised that the markets were fairly calm over this, but IMHO the reaction will be delayed. Hollande hasn't done anything yet BUT HE WILL, and when he does so, expect the excrement to hit the wall in spades. This will possibly result in the complete economic downfall of Europe or most of it anyway. Germany is now alone in its demanding of austerity for these socialists DA countries over there that are/hanve been '''''stupidly'''''' spending like drunken sailors. Germany's Merkle and France's Sarcozy were the only spearheading political leaders calling for belt-tightening, and now the Idiot French have told Sarcozy to GTH. Merkle and Germany will no doubt throw up their hands in desperation now and say to hades with it. The Germans are intelligent and frugle people who are damned tired of their tax dollars supporting these moronic welfare-spending countries whose governments they/Germans are bailing out, and no one in their right mind can blame the Germans for being pi*sed iff over same. It's now only a matte of time before Europe explodes financially, and American taxpayers had better watch our un-POTUS and his Democrats don't start using our taxpayer-dollars to contribute to this bailout of socialism in Europe [if its not being done already]!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 5.7.12 @ 5:02PM
Uh oh, here comes TAS Swat Team....no paragraphs!!!!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 5.7.12 @ 5:22PM
Excuse the lack of paragraphing :
'.....Newsmax Rush: ‘France is Gone’ Monday, May 7, 2012 01:36 PMBy: Michelle LopataThe election of “the avowed socialist in France” François Hollande Sunday night “means that France is gone,” says talk radio host Rush Limbaugh. Limbaugh says the French have announced austerity is over with this recent election. Hollande has already promised to raise taxes on the top one percent by 75 percent, and the French elite are making plans to move to Great Britain.
“Unemployment in France is higher than 14 percent but the thing is it’s constant . . . it’s accepted,” Limbaugh said Monday.
“It is the norm. There are more people on the take than there are producing and those people came out in greater numbers and don’t think Obama’s not noticing that.”Limbaugh said he is certain that we are headed in the same direction as France. “I don’t know [if the French election] means anything for the United States,” Limbaugh said. “There is no way anybody could extrapolate to the extent that we are France. I’ve never heard that connection made . . . but we’re trending that direction. There’s no question about that.”
Hollande defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy Sunday night who had served as president of France since 2007......'
MorrowRosanna| 5.7.12 @ 6:56PM
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Bob S| 5.7.12 @ 9:30PM
They may have sealed the fate of Europe. The socialist president in France will just expand the nanny state, and eventually it will become too big for France to be able to support the EU and its own socialist programs. The Greeks just proved to the world that they truly have no idea how dire their situation is. Stick a fork in the EU, it's done.
WL| 5.8.12 @ 12:35AM
That's it Kaminsky....
The French elect a socialist...the Greeks are mired in their stupidity except for a few people who are sick and tired of what is probably their version of our Mealy Mouthed so-called conservatives and Republicans....
And who do you criticize and throw under the bus....??? The "far right" of course....
That is so typical of our conservatives...
It's all about voting for the right...until people actually start to...
Then the MOLES start showing themselves....
Huh Kaminsky?
kerry| 5.8.12 @ 5:35AM
yes, caught that too. He definitely seems to be very concerned about the "extremist" right. But, thinks that Hollande won't be too extreme?
Jacob D | 5.8.12 @ 3:21AM
I just hate socialism - period.
Ross Kaminsky | 5.8.12 @ 11:22AM
Some of you people are unbelievable. Almost every article about Golden Dawn describes them similarly or even more negatively than I do. Furthermore, I never said "Nazi."
That said, particularly as a Jew, I've seen this movie before. Not that I think Greece will do what Germany did, but rather the mindset of blaming someone else, anyone else, for a nation's problems, is troubling and dangerous.
And, no, I don't think Hollande will be nearly as different from every other French politician as Golden Dawn is from most Greek politicians. That doesn't mean I'm glad he won. Though to the extent that France shows the world what doesn't work, I can live with it.
Cris | 5.9.12 @ 12:13PM
I'm disappointed that Ross, unnecessarily fed the leftist language manipulation forces, new fodder to gnaw on. Why on earth would he disparagingly classify an anti-free market, political nitwit in Greece as "extreme right"? Is he trying to say the guy was very conservative, like an American Founding Father? What made him “far right” and not “far left”? Did Ross graduate from the Saul Alinsky’s school of propaganda? It nauseating to hear conservatives validating the left’s 50 year old disinformation campaign, which they've managed to propagate in universities throughout America: The "Far Right" is made up of tyrants and dictators and the polar opposite is the Far Left, Marxist, Communists. In turn, Hitler and the Nazi's were Far Right and the Stalin Communists were on the Fair Left. ROSS WAKE THE HELL UP! This is the classic leftist lie, which has worked exceedingly well for more than a half century! In fact, this fallacy was devised by the lowly Left to lessen the criticism directed at them following WWII; and provide them an excuse for their gushing support and praise of the Soviet Union and it's wonderful system of Government for the 2 decades leading up to WWII. Have you ever bothered to notice the “Socialist" part of the National Socialist German Workers' Party? Have you ever researched Hitler's early association with the Communist party, whose policies he agreed with in every way except the "world revolution" part? Instead, Hitler believed that only the superior Aryans of Germany were fit to go “Forward” and lead the world. I admit, it’s all a load of nonsense semantics, but this is what the left does, because deception and coercion is all they have in their arsenal. As conservatives, it is our duty to take back our language - which the left has successfully manipulated to suit its agenda in more ways than we can count or even imagine. The reason this is so important is that majority of our fellow citizens, do not focus on political theory and don’t have the time, will or ability to perform the research necessary to arrive at the truth. Today’s reality is clear to us; but to most people it is not. The ruthless Left, along with its 24/7 media hacks and minions have so thoroughly twisted the reality in which we live, the hoi polloi is susceptible to believing anything.