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The Spectacle Blog
Amidst a new PPP poll that has Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by five points in Pennsylvania, the Santorum campaign is taking a few days off.
Now Easter weekend is coming up and is as good a time as any for respite and reflection. He may very well be raring to go on Monday full speed ahead. Yet I cannot help but wonder if Santorum will spend this good part of this respite reflecting on the viability of his campaign. Unless Mitt Romney collapses like the Boston Red Sox did last September, Santorum’s chances of capturing the GOP nomination are scant.
One of Santorum’s selling points is that he is a conservative who can win in a blue state. But if Santorum’s internal polling in Pennsylvania isn’t good he’s going to have a hard time convincing people outside of Pennsylvania to jump on board with him be they from blue states or red states.
I have a funny feeling that Santorum is going to drop out on Monday. Of course, I’m also the guy who just picked the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the NL Central. So take from that what you will.
UPDATE: As Jim Antle has noted, it looks like Santorum is staying in the race - for now. Given that Santorum is meeting with other social conservatives I wonder if this means he is going to become far more aggressive with Romney on abortion and gay marriage. I can’t imagine how else he might gain an advantage over Romney.
View all comments (46) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/04/05/will-santorum-drop-out-on-mond
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Casey Abell| 4.5.12 @ 12:06PM
We'll leave aside the Santorum prediction. But the Pirates? They had a -102 run diff last year. That's gonna turn around enough for a division title?
Lotsa luck, Aaron.
Trinacria| 4.5.12 @ 3:28PM
And yet the Pirates' chances of winning the NL Central are exponentially greater than Santorum's chances of winning the Republican nomination. Hell, their chances of winning the World Series are greater than Santorum's chances of winning the nomination.
He needs to get out now and spare himself the utter embarassment of losing his home state...
W| 4.5.12 @ 4:08PM
T, Buona Pasqua.
Rick is finished. He cannot win delegates through the voting in the primaries. He has to hope Romney is short a few delegates and then have a convention fight where he or Newt make deals with the delegates for their votes. So then the wishes of the primary voters are discounted.
Trinacria| 4.5.12 @ 5:52PM
Buona Pasqua a te, W.
I agree; this is his only possible strategy. It is, however, hardly a noble and honorable path to the nomination, and it certainly doesn't position him well for the general election. time to do the right thing.
W| 4.5.12 @ 8:06PM
I am dissapointed with Santorum having voted for him, and worked for him. Maybe he needs more material for the book he will write after he loses.
Jack in Wi.| 4.5.12 @ 12:27PM
Let Santorum drop out Monday if he wishes and I hope Ron Paul runs on the Libertarian or Constitution ticket so I can have someone to vote for. Several polls have him at 17 to 20% of the vote if he does. With 2 warmongering and bankster loving losers like Obama and Romney, he has an outside chance to grab the whole bag of marbles.
fmm| 4.5.12 @ 12:47PM
This is delusional. Paul running on a third ticket elects Obama.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 1:13PM
Romney Running On The GOP Ticket Is McCain Redux.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Casey Abell| 4.5.12 @ 12:32PM
"With 2 warmongering and bankster loving losers like Obama and Romney, he has an outside chance to grab the whole bag of marbles."
I could make obvious jokes about Paul losing his marbles, but I'll stop myself. Anyway, back in the real world, Paul has no chance for the presidency. He has a very good chance of helping Obama to a second term, though, by splitting off some GOP voters.
I doubt he'll try it. Would kill his son's future in the party.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 12:46PM
Dr.Ron Paul's Delegates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....U2AvSwzuok
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
SpiralArchitect| 4.5.12 @ 8:06PM
If Paul is the true Constitutionalist that so many say, it would be unthinkable for him to run third party, Paul knowing full well it would assure a second term for the usurper.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 12:43PM
" April 3, 2012 - Santorum Leads Romney In Pennsylvania GOP Primary,
Favorite Son Rick Santorum leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 41 - 35 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania's Republican presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. "
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Oldefarte| 4.5.12 @ 2:53PM
TELL THE ''''''WHOLE ''''''' TRUTH [IF POSSIBLE]:
'.....Latest Election Polls
Election 2012SenateState of the UnionAll Latest PollsThursday, April 05
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Santorum 37, Romney 42, Paul 9, Gingrich 6 Romney +5
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Rasmussen Reports Santorum 42, Romney 38, Paul 7, Gingrich 6 Santorum +4
New York Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 54, Santorum 21, Gingrich 9, Paul 8 Romney +33
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking Romney 39, Santorum 26, Gingrich 10, Paul 12 Romney +13
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 47 Romney +2
General Election: Santorum vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Santorum 44 Obama +2 .......'
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 3:06PM
Pennsylvania Republican Primary Polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1594.html
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Teflon93| 4.5.12 @ 12:44PM
Santorum is a committed Catholic and this is Holy Week. Catch a clue.
Windy City Commentary| 4.5.12 @ 12:52PM
Exactly. Rick took a break during Christmas, and hasn't taken one since. He is taking a break during the Easter Triduum, and the PA Election isn't until 2 weeks from Tuesday. Plenty of time for Rick to convince voters to choose him, and plenty of time for voters to get tired of the "vote Romney, because he has more delegates" message.
Teflon93| 4.5.12 @ 1:22PM
Not to mention for arrogant MittBots to provide more "Etch-A-Sketch" geniusery to the mix. The primary isn't over until all candidates but one drop out or one candidate gets a majority of delegates---period.
SpiralArchitect| 4.5.12 @ 8:15PM
That is being fairly presumptuous. The usurper could simply end the primary by decree, where have you been hiding these last few years?
Aaron Goldstein| 4.5.12 @ 1:55PM
I made reference to Easter at the beginning of the second paragraph.
Teflon93| 4.5.12 @ 2:24PM
C'mon, Aaron, read your own post:
"Now Easter weekend is coming up and is as good a time as any for respite and reflection. He may very well be raring to go on Monday full speed ahead. Yet I cannot help but wonder if Santorum will spend this good part of this respite reflecting on the viability of his campaign. "
You introduced Easter only to dismiss it. Holy Week in the Catholic Church runs from Maundy Thursday to Easter Sunday. That's four days of high holy days, right? Four days off the campaign trail....get it?
Moreover, Easter is the end of the reflective period of Lent and it ends on the most hopeful of notes with Christ triumphant. It is likelier to result in Santorum being rejuvenated than being dispirited. It is the nature of the season.
Besides, Santorum is quite likely fasting Good Friday and quite probably Saturday as well. That's no time to be on the campaign trail.
Aaron Goldstein| 4.5.12 @ 4:20PM
Mocking Easter? You need to take a cold shower.
Well, Santorum set aside one of the high holy days to strategize with social conservatives on the direction of his campaign.
I said he may very well go full speed ahead on Good Monday and based on what has been reported it looks like he's staying in the race.
W| 4.5.12 @ 5:43PM
Santorum is spending Thursday meeting with his campaign advisors.
SpiralArchitect| 4.5.12 @ 8:17PM
Book deal$ or patriotism by rallying together to do all he is capable of doing to assure America survives.
The choice is his, the nom is not.
MikeG| 4.5.12 @ 5:42PM
Santorum is a committed politician. Today, Holy Thursday, he is meeting with "conservative activists" in Virginia to "sharpen" his attacks on Romney. Obama sends his thanks.
Casey Abell| 4.5.12 @ 1:12PM
"Favorite Son Rick Santorum leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 41 - 35 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania's Republican presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today."
And that lead was down considerably from an earlier Quinnipiac poll. PPP has just released a poll with Romney up five. Rasmusssen is just out with a poll that shows Santorum up four. The RCP average currently stands at an excruciatingly close 1.7 lead for Santorum.
Everybody agrees that Romney has gained a huge amount of ground in the state. Is the trend going to change? Who knows, but a PA loss would be the ultimate embarrassment for Santorum. Even a close win would look bad on a night when Romney will sweep everything else.
Santorum is now running for I-told-you-so rights over the next four years if Romney loses in November. But he already owns those rights. What more is there to gain? He can't possibly believe he has a realistic chance at the nomination this year.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 1:24PM
" Rasmussen Poll:
Thursday, April 05, 2012
Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum holds a four-point lead in his home state in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican Primary.
A new statewide telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely GOP Primary Voters support Santorum, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney picks up 38% of the vote."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Casey Abell| 4.5.12 @ 1:37PM
Like everybody else, Rasmussen shows the PA race is very close and eminently losable for Santorum. And this is supposed to persude him to stay in? This is Santorum's home state, guys. He should win it huge. Romney won his home state by sixty points.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 2:55PM
I'm A Pennsylvanian Gun & Bible Clutchin' Conservative And Pennsylvania Is Eminently Losable For Tarpster Romneycarist RINO-CINO Ruling Elite Frontman, Romney.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
SpiralArchitect| 4.5.12 @ 8:20PM
As one can only judge you by your virtual & rhetoric (the only thing you do in TAS comments)you seem to be a not so nice person. Pity.
Oldefarte| 4.5.12 @ 2:52PM
TELL THE ''''''WHOLE ''''''' TRUTH [IF POSSIBLE]:
'.....Latest Election Polls
Election 2012SenateState of the UnionAll Latest PollsThursday, April 05
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Santorum 37, Romney 42, Paul 9, Gingrich 6 Romney +5
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Rasmussen Reports Santorum 42, Romney 38, Paul 7, Gingrich 6 Santorum +4
New York Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 54, Santorum 21, Gingrich 9, Paul 8 Romney +33
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking Romney 39, Santorum 26, Gingrich 10, Paul 12 Romney +13
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 47 Romney +2
General Election: Santorum vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Santorum 44 Obama +2 .......'
Oldefarte| 4.5.12 @ 2:54PM
TELL THE ''''''WHOLE ''''''' TRUTH [IF POSSIBLE]:
'.....Latest Election Polls
Election 2012SenateState of the UnionAll Latest PollsThursday, April 05
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Santorum 37, Romney 42, Paul 9, Gingrich 6 Romney +5
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Rasmussen Reports Santorum 42, Romney 38, Paul 7, Gingrich 6 Santorum +4
New York Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 54, Santorum 21, Gingrich 9, Paul 8 Romney +33
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking Romney 39, Santorum 26, Gingrich 10, Paul 12 Romney +13
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 47 Romney +2
General Election: Santorum vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Santorum 44 Obama +2 .......'
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 3:09PM
Truth This Alabama Romney Deliverance Troll.
Pennsylvania Republican Primary Polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1594.html
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Derek Leaberry| 4.5.12 @ 1:38PM
Rick Santorum is a Roman Catholic and Thursday through Sunday are the dearest, most devout days of the Christian year. I am sure he plans to spend the time with his family at his parish.
Aaron Goldstein| 4.5.12 @ 1:55PM
Please see comment to Teflon93.
Drek| 4.5.12 @ 2:06PM
He's not going to drop out.
After his spiritual activities of this weekend, he's likely to come out spiritually reenergized to go after Romney.
Santorum deludes himself he's doing the Lord's work, he's not going anywhere.
And if Romney gives him a major speaking spot at the Convention, then Romney is an idiot. For Santorum can't deliver a decent speech.
Nobody is going to confuse a Santorum speech with say, a Zell Miller speech, now are they?
PCP Smoker| 4.5.12 @ 3:21PM
Another asshole Romney supporter. Maybe you, Antle, Quinn, and the he-she Jenn Rubin can do a circle jerk.
Derek Leaberry| 4.5.12 @ 6:02PM
I am severely conservative. And let women join the Augusta golf club, private property be damned. Join the 21st Century, conservatives. Egalitarianism rules.
Mitt Romney| 4.5.12 @ 6:04PM
Hey, you stole my words.
SpiralArchitect| 4.5.12 @ 8:22PM
..and the usurper is giving our nation away. That does not seem to bother too many around here these days.
Bill| 4.5.12 @ 3:23PM
Santorum's unwavering support of big-labor destroyed his campaign. He's just another Mike Huckabee, may mull an anchor bid in one of those talk-radio show in Pittsburgh.
Clint| 4.5.12 @ 5:05PM
Romney Is McCain Redux.
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Sue| 4.5.12 @ 6:10PM
If Santorum drops out, and leaves Romney then to concentrate on Obama- -I believe it will be proven before the convention, that the establishment made a mistake in pushing Romney. To their own peril, I might add.
Elias| 4.5.12 @ 8:00PM
Aaron says, "I wonder if this means he is going to become far more aggressive with Romney on abortion and gay marriage. I can't imagine how else he might gain an advantage over Romney."
I hope not. Santorum should gain/keep advantage over Romney by never letting anyone forget that Santorum's always been against the individual mandate, and that there's little difference between Romneycare and obamacare - the hated legislation that 70% of Americans believe should be repealed. This alone should be enough for thinking Repub voters to see that obama will beat Flip-Flop Mitt in the general.
Ken| 4.5.12 @ 8:31PM
" I can't imagine how else [Santorum] might gain an advantage over Romney." Hmmm. Why not economics? For all this great fuss about how Santorum is just a social conservative candidate, he's also far more conservative economically than faux economic conservative Romney who gave us Obamacare's blueprint.
I'm getting so sick and tired of people trying to tell me what a wonderful candidate Romney is when there is nothing really to praise. The GOP establishment is trying to serve us dog food and call it pate de foie gras, but they can't hide the nasty taste. I might have managed to choke down McCain, but I sure am not going to swallow any Romney Chow.
JSMITH| 4.6.12 @ 1:42AM
THE RINOS HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS SINCE IOWA, WE SUPPORT SANTORUM, YOUR RINO ROMNEY WILL LOSE TO HUSSEIN IN NOVEMBER, YOU WILL GET RICHER, AMERICA WILL LOSE BUT HOPEFULLY A THIRD AMERICAN PARTY WILL EMERGE AS WE CANNOT STAND ANOTHER RINO LIKE FAT CHRISTIE OR ZERO PERSONALITY DANIELS BEING SHOVED DOWN OUR THROATS IN 2016- DOLE, MCCAIN, ROMNEY ALL LOSERS-REMEMBER THE ONLY REASON FOR THE BUSHES WAS THAT THE GREAT RONALD REAGAN LET THE MODERATE BUSH BE HIS VP.
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