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The Spectacle Blog
A new USA Today/Gallup poll which includes specific data on “swing states” has Barack Obama with his largest lead of this election season over Mitt Romney among registered voters nationally and in those swing states.
Obama’s 4-point lead over Romney is the largest margin for either candidate since the question was started being asked in August. Obama’s lead over Rick Santorum is twice as large, at 8 percent.
For the first time since the question started being asked in late October, Obama leads Romney in a dozen key “swing states”:
The last piece of bad news for Romney in today’s report is in the declining enthusiasm of those who say they would support him, with a dramatic drop over the last two months from 56 percent to 43 percent being “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about voting. Obama’s enthusiasm numbers also dropped, from 50 percent to 46 percent.
As the Chicago Tribune reports, Romney has suffered dramatically among women under 50 years old. In February, Obama led among this group by nine percent. That lead has since doubled to 18 percent. This is a gender gap which must be narrowed by the eventual Republican nominee, no matter who he is, in order to have any chance of winning this election. In my view — and I know that many “real conservatives” out there will squawk — Romney’s running as a “severe conservative” is a major political loser in the general election, and it hasn’t really helped him in the primary season either as the Republican base doesn’t believe him. So he’s getting the worst of both worlds by trying to portray himself as a rock-ribbed conservative
Democrats shouldn’t start planning Barack Obama’s re-inauguration just yet.
We’ve been through two months of intense battle among the Republican presidential hopefuls, with Santorum and Romney in particular dragging each other down with intensely negative ads and comments.
Despite Romney’s modest attentions to Obama, the president has gone essentially unscathed over the last two months, not least because of the “mainstream” media’s interest in seeing him re-elected.
Can you imagine what the New York Times and Washington Post would have done to a Republican president who whispered to a Russian leader that he would have “flexibility” on missile defense negotiations after an election?
Can you envision what the network news broadcasts would have done to a Republican president with pictures of gas stations selling gasoline over $4 per gallon?
Complaining about media bias is fruitless. My point is that once a Republican nominee is selected, his focus will be intensely and solely on President Obama and this administration’s destructive policies — and the media will have to cover it.
Mitt Romney isn’t doing himself any favors in terms of generating enthusiasm by visiting a massive home he’s renovating, complete with an elevator for his cars. The New York Times said that they received plans for the expansion from “a rival campaign.” One has to wonder whether the Times got the info from the Obama team but is trying to make it sound like it came from the Santorum campaign in order to add ammunition to the typical Republican circular firing squad.
Still, people know that Romney is rich. They know he’s the 1 percent of the 1 percent. The question is whether the Democrats are overestimating how much that will hurt Romney in November, especially in comparison to an incumbent who seems as out of touch with the average American — who has to pay his own gasoline and electricity bills, and worry about his own employment — as any Democrat in recent memory, Jimmy Carter included. Obama is every bit the elitist that Romney is, just not as wealthy an elitist.
Obama remains personally popular, whether because he’s a “historic” first black president or because he seems like a good family man or because voters are subconsciously hesitant to admit they made a mistake (or were fooled) as egregious as the mistake the nation made in 2008, not just in electing Barack Obama but in giving Democrats enough power in Washington that they could jam Obamacare down our throats.
Therefore, Romney’s challenge, if he is to reverse these poll numbers — and I believe he will — is to find a way to attack Obama’s record and policies without sounding as if he’s attacking Obama personally.
During the heat of a Republican primary season, neither the media nor the public is listening intently to Republican critiques of Obama. And of course the media is ignoring any piece of news which is not favorable to the president, which is to say every piece of recent news that involves him.
This, more than anything fundamental about Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, is what Monday’s poll results are telling us. Yes, it would be better for Mitt Romney if his numbers hadn’t suffered so badly over the last two months. But overconfidence by Democrats or excess concern by Republicans is not warranted…at least not yet.
View all comments (25) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/04/02/obama-leads-romney-in-new-swin
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Vern Crisler| 4.2.12 @ 12:20PM
People are losing interest in Romney because he is an empty politician. You can't beat something with nothing. With all the reports of an improving economy, the stupid voters will put Obama back in office. Remember, these are the same types of people who gave us Wilson, Roosevelt, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton. What else can you expect?
Ross Kaminsky | 4.2.12 @ 12:40PM
I understand that view and can only hope that Romney is not as empty as you think, or at least that the public doesn't view him as empty.
I'm less optimistic than I used to be about Romney beating Obama. And, as you suggest, most of my slightly lower optimism is based on Romney's uninspirational behavior rather than thinking anything about the overall environment has shifted dramatically in Obama's favor.
Al Adab| 4.2.12 @ 1:06PM
All of us keep saying count the electoral vote. "08 was 365 to 173. Where are the changes that will deliver 270 to the GOP nominee and which candidate can deliver those. It comes down to the math.
gearjammer| 4.3.12 @ 9:10AM
The census helps-people are leaving blue states. Blue staters don't breed much-less they are urban non citizens-llega or not. We have Indiana back. Ohio, Fla., N.C., VA. Those are the places. But, these states are not deep south-but right winger keep insisting they will vote for ultra conservative. Wrong. Social issues are a killer in these places-Pallin killed McCain in key constituencies-you know those educated suburban people. A pro choice( sorta ) veep and an enlightened attitude on gay marriage and this would have been a tighter race in 2008.
Jack in Wi.| 4.2.12 @ 7:53PM
Ross, actually a pretty good reporting job. I predict it will only get worse. Romney just doesn't have it. He is Dole, McCain or Bush in 1992 all over again. As bad as Obama is, people think Romney is at best an empty suit and at worst an idiot. They figure we may as well keep the idiot we have as replace him with one that may be even worse. Right now I don't see how he can win. Of course the Republican strategy is for Obama to lose the election, not them win it. The Republicans have no positive program to attack the deficit or get our boys home from overseas. The people are sick of Bush Republicans and wars. It just depends on how disgusted they are with Obama.
Ross Kaminsky | 4.2.12 @ 10:05PM
Jack,
While I'm obviously less negative about Romney than you are, it's a matter of degree. I basically agree with your last two sentences.
Jozy Wales| 4.3.12 @ 10:36AM
Romney is not Dole,etc. Romney is a better politician than your ridiculous comparison states. He was governor of most the democrat state in country. You just don't like him because he isn't "conservative" enough. Once Santorum sees reality and stops damaging Romney's chances, the focus will shift to the worst President in US history. The economy is not better as gas prices are climbing. The dems who control the official unemployment rate lie about it to make Obama look successful. Your post has many misstatements . I see Romney winning a very close election. I believe Santorum would rather see Obama win thinking his chances of becoming President are postponed for another 8 years if Romney wins.
Les| 4.2.12 @ 12:38PM
I feel some on here will probably vote for BHO. Probably some of the writers even.
Joseph| 4.2.12 @ 12:40PM
Obama's voters at least have some loyalty and enough common sense to realize they have to vote for Obama to prevent a Republican from winnning. They are not stupid. You are the stupid voter, and others like you, who whine every day here that they just can't vote for Romney or Paul or whomever so let Obama win.
Ross Kaminsky | 4.2.12 @ 1:11PM
Obama's base feels as you describe. But independent voters are...independent, and reasonably likely to vote differently in '12 than in '08 given the results of the last election.
But Romney or whoever the GOP nominee is does indeed have to give voters a reason to vote for the Republican.
Meanwhile there is at least as big a part of the country that is enthusiastic about ending Obama's reign as the number of those who want to extend it.
Indy| 4.2.12 @ 2:14PM
Maybe some independent voters like myself want the GOP to learn to "fight like a girl" I cannot support the D's since they are the party of Michael Moore, Soros, Code Pink, etc and the GOP is the party of McConnell / Boehner who show no leadership. The GOP fights conservatives with intensity but stand up to the Left? Not at all, they want the media to like them, meanwhile Rome burns, the dollar weakens, spending continues and they give more power to the exectutive branch.
I will vote ABO and hold my nose when I vote for the GOP nominee as I did for McCain, but the until the GOP leadership is willing to stand up to the media and support conservative principles, I will remain unaffiliated. I don't think I am alone with this view, many independents I know feel the same way, we are not all "moderate squishes" like the media portrays.
james wilson| 4.2.12 @ 1:36PM
The fact that there is even a question that Obama will be re-elected means this country as it was designed has probably passed through a tipping point. Certainly Romney would not even dream of bringing it back, and he will veer left for the general election in search of those women. The sad truth is, the type of liberty the Founders envisioned is not natural, but instead, difficult. It could not bear the final straw of womens suffrage. And, increasingly, women means unmarried women. Game set match.
Les| 4.2.12 @ 1:39PM
I think BHO will win. Too many people,almost 50% collect government checks. BHO can also count on 99% black support,as well as 70% Hispanic vote(thanks to his amnesty aupport). Add to that the unknown deadenders like Quin Hilkyer who willo probably vote for Lyndon Larouche or something because of their Romney hate.
Ira| 4.2.12 @ 2:21PM
I do not think Obama is as strong as his polls suggest. For one thing,look at the senate races. In Virginia,it is neck and neck,with an edge to George Allen. In Wisconsin,the likely GOp candidate Tommy Thompson will win in a walk. Florida looks really bad for Bill Nelson. Ohio is slipping away from crazed communist Sherrod Brown. Hard nto believe the GOp will win those and not at least have a decent chance in the presidential race.
Ross Kaminsky | 4.2.12 @ 3:35PM
I agree. In betting at intrade.com Obama has been steady around 60% to be re-elected for about a month and a half...but he was trading around 51-52% for a couple of months before that.
StarTripper| 4.2.12 @ 3:45PM
The internals for the poll haven't been released. The only things I have heard is it was registered voters and the percentage of female respondents who identified themselves as Democrat was over 40%. Don't trust any of this stuff.
Ross Kaminsky | 4.2.12 @ 4:08PM
I agree that these results probably overstate recent damage to Romney, but I certainly believe the overall recent direction is in the direction the poll suggests, in part for reasons I mention.
It's a little hard to believe that swing state voters have moved so much more than registered voters or all adults.
Al Adab| 4.2.12 @ 6:26PM
Wait until the DEM attack machine starts in on Mormon theology and the role of women. It will make the contraception "controversy" look mild.
JP| 4.2.12 @ 4:54PM
I agree with Startripper. I read the sample favored Democratic Women by 41-24 over GOP women. And while the trend may favor Obama, it is only April. The President's disapproval numbers are way too high to say this will be a shoe-in for Obama. And like you said Ross, it is statistically unlikely that "swing state" votes would vary as much as recent polls suggest. I bet if you applied some statistical tools, the variation would be outside of 2 standard deviations.
For Mitt, I think his campaign manager is playing it safe until he can get close to the magic number of the majority of the delegate count. Playing it safe seems to be his specialty. No gaffs, no comments on events like the Martin killing, or the contraception fiasco. While, this might cost him short-term points with the GOP base; it also makes it difficult for average undecideds to differentiate him with the President.
IMHO, if he truly wishes to be seen as the GOP contender he should start acting and speaking like one. He should take a page directly out of the Reagan playbook and begin directing speeches and ads squarely at the sitting President. Mitt is not my choice (1st, 2nd, or 3rd). But, like in past elections the alternative is far worse. He really needs to start acting like a President and stop acting like an primary candidate. If he cannot do that, he deserves to lose.
gearjammer| 4.3.12 @ 9:00AM
Good job digging out that stat.
Trinacria| 4.2.12 @ 5:33PM
"Therefore, Romney's challenge, if he is to reverse these poll numbers -- and I believe he will -- is to find a way to attack Obama's record and policies without sounding as if he's attacking Obama personally."
Much harder said than done, as it requires a capacity for nuance among American voters. Let's be frank - never in our history has the American voter been less capable of the type of critical discernment required to make such a distinction. After all, this is the same intellectually vacant citizenry that abdicated their civic responsibility en masse to embrace a woefully inexperienced and historically underwhelming candidate whose entire campaign platform was limited to a recitation of the vacuous and utterly meaningless platitudes "hope and change". And now we expect them to make a fine distinction between attacking the policy and attacking the man? Really? In our post-reality hyper-politically correct world, attacking the man's policy IS attacking the man. In fact, it's not only attacking the man, it's attacking his entire race - if you disagree with the policies of a minority president, well... then you're clearly a racist.
It would therefore appear that Mr. Romeny has his work cut out for him...
Republican Victory| 4.2.12 @ 5:55PM
Ryan-Rice in 2012!
fiscal| 4.3.12 @ 10:00AM
Romney has been running for President now for 7 years???? I don't believe these numbers have anything to do with the primary because the next election is more of a statement about Obama and the economy. If the economy continues to improve, Obama will be re-elected no matter what Romney says. That's why the results of these polls show Obama gaining.
Voters, except at the margins, don't care about political positionings because they don't believe any politician. Obama is known. There is nothing you can say about the guy that will surprise anyone. Romney is more unknown, but what most people know about him shows that he is NOT a star like Obama and Palin. We vote for stars, not political philosophy.
This is unfortunate because I'm a strong supporter of Romney both 4 years ago and today. I like someone who actually looks at facts, is not averse to science, and will work towards getting results and not ideological purity. His campaign has hurt him because of the ideology of the extreme right and what they require for him to get the nomination. If anything, it is the extreme right that has hurt his chances for election.
Oldefarte| 4.3.12 @ 10:02AM
Ross' truthful editorial points out the need to get on with this Republican nomination process. It was once said that if I think JC walked out upon the waters from a boat on the stormy seas to save a drowning person whose boat had just sunk, the Democrats and the MSM would declare headlines of JC POLLUTES OCEAN BY GETTING HIS DIRTY FEET INTO THE WATER! Whatever Romney or any Republican does will be sarcastically critisized by them as usual, so as Ross indicates, the important thing is to unite as Republicans and to combine our efforts at describing the hellaceous circumstances that exist in the nation due to the policies of this president and his Democrat domestic terrorists, and maybe just maybe the STUPIDS will understand same. Remember.......ITS THE DEMOCRATS, STUPIDS!!!!!!!!
zmerchnewscom | 4.10.12 @ 1:51PM
President Obama is the number 1 topic in the news. A word popularity check of rss feeds at www.zmerchnews.com shows that the word 'Obama' is always at the top - most popular - news headlines criticise and praise him, however a reason for being so popular could simply be the fact that he is the current American President.