Really? I mean, really, Ross? You call
this an argument for Mitt Romney’s electability?
Several things are missing from your argument, but let’s focus
one just one: Money.
During the month of January, Romney’s campaign spent $18.8
million, compared to $5.9
million for Newt Gingrich and $3.3
million for Rick Santorum. Thus, Romney outspent Gingrich by a
factor of roughly 3.2-to-1 and Romney outspent Santorum by a factor
of roughly 5.7-to-1.
During the month of February, Romney’s campaign spent $12.4
million, compared to $7.8
million for Santorum and $2.9
million for Gingrich. This gave Mitt a 1.6-to-1 spending
advantage over Santorum for the month, and a 4.3-to-1 advantage
over Gingrich.
For the first two months of 2012, therefore, Romney spent $31.2
million to Santorum’s $11.1 million and Gingrich’s $8.8 million.
Omitting entirely the money spent during 2011, Romney has spent 61
percent of the campaign cash expended by the three
top Republican contenders for the first two months of the
year, yet has about 40 percent of GOP primary and caucus
votes, while Santorum has spent 22 percent of the money and gotten
28 percent of the vote, and Gingrich spent 17 percent of the
money and got 21 percent of the vote.
We cannot forget, of course, the 2012 is the year of the “super
PACs.” and the pro-Romney super PAC, Restore Our Future, has been
the principle vehicle used to unleash attack ads against his
Republican rivals. According to the Center for Responsive Politics,
Restore Our Future has spent
at least $32.7 million so far during the 2012 campaign
cycle (full FEC reports are not yet available). The pro-Gingrich
super PAC, Winning Our Future, has
spent at least $16.6 million so far, and the pro-Santorum
super PAC, Red White and Blue, has
spent at least $5.4 million so far.
Combining these admittedly rough and incomplete metrics,
then, we get the following picture:
- Romney $63.9 million, 4.1 million votes, $15.59 per vote.
- Gingrich $25.4 million, 2.2 million votes, $11.55 per
vote.
- Santorum $16.5 million, 2.9 million votes, $5.69 per vote.
These ratios are quite significant when you consider that the
biggest states in Romney’s win column — Florida, Michigan, Ohio
and Illinois — were all states in which his campaign and super PAC
vastly outspent Romney’s rivals in advertising,
Romney’s 7-to-1 ad ratio against Santorum in Illinois being
the most recent example.
Romney is winning primaries with lopsided money advantages he
won’t have in the general election and, as Gingrich noted
during his
speech Thursday in Baton Rouge, the negativity of Romney’s
primary campaign has driven down turnout and dampened
conservative enthusiasm. If Mitt is indeed “inevitable” as the
nominee — and see
my column today for a solid pushback against that spin — then
the omens for November are not encouraging.
I remain convinced that a sort of hocus-pocus of political
prestidigitation has been performed so far in the 2012 campaign,
and the Republican electorate is beginning to see through the
illusion. This could be seen from the February fundraising reports,
showing that Santorum ($9 million for the month) made big
strides toward closing the money gap with Romney ($12
million), while Gingrich’s campaign stumbled toward
bankruptcy, with Newt’s February fundraising falling to $2.3
million, finishing the month with more debt than cash on hand.
The Gingrich campaign death-watch — see
today’s New York Times article by Trip Gabriel as a
sort of first draft of the obit — is now underway. By delaying
their dismal February financial report until the last minute (they
blurted the ugly truth to Politico the day the FEC report
was due), Gingrich’s campaign was able to maintain a mirage of
viability for nearly three weeks into March, but that’s all over
now.
The decisive shift of conservative support toward Santorum (as
evidenced by his
3-to-1 margin over Gingrich in Louisiana) has given him renewed
momentum. While the delegate math still favors Romney, there are
still eight days before next week’s primaries in Wisconsin and
Maryland, and then Santorum gets a three-week breathing spell
before the multi-state contests on April 24. While many
conservative pundits have resigned themselves to Romney’s
inevitability, Republican primary voters may have different
ideas.
No predictions about the final outcome, but here’s one
short-term prediction: Before this week is over, we’ll get
devastating news accounts about the financial plight of the
Gingrich campaign. And once there’s blood in the water, the sharks
will come circling around Newt. Just imagine yourself as a vendor
to the Gingrich campaign, waiting for an overdue payment, and
then reading that New York Times story about
Newt rolling across rural Louisiana, where “a 10-car motorcade
conveys him like a head of state, three police cars with flashing
lights leading a Secret Service detail and shiny S.U.V.’s for Mr.
Gingrich and his staff.” All this, to get 16 percent of
the vote?
