The Spectacle Blog
Really? I mean, really, Ross? You call this an argument for Mitt Romney’s electability?
Several things are missing from your argument, but let’s focus one just one: Money.
During the month of January, Romney’s campaign spent $18.8 million, compared to $5.9 million for Newt Gingrich and $3.3 million for Rick Santorum. Thus, Romney outspent Gingrich by a factor of roughly 3.2-to-1 and Romney outspent Santorum by a factor of roughly 5.7-to-1.
During the month of February, Romney’s campaign spent $12.4 million, compared to $7.8 million for Santorum and $2.9 million for Gingrich. This gave Mitt a 1.6-to-1 spending advantage over Santorum for the month, and a 4.3-to-1 advantage over Gingrich.
For the first two months of 2012, therefore, Romney spent $31.2 million to Santorum’s $11.1 million and Gingrich’s $8.8 million. Omitting entirely the money spent during 2011, Romney has spent 61 percent of the campaign cash expended by the three top Republican contenders for the first two months of the year, yet has about 40 percent of GOP primary and caucus votes, while Santorum has spent 22 percent of the money and gotten 28 percent of the vote, and Gingrich spent 17 percent of the money and got 21 percent of the vote.
We cannot forget, of course, the 2012 is the year of the “super PACs.” and the pro-Romney super PAC, Restore Our Future, has been the principle vehicle used to unleash attack ads against his Republican rivals. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Restore Our Future has spent at least $32.7 million so far during the 2012 campaign cycle (full FEC reports are not yet available). The pro-Gingrich super PAC, Winning Our Future, has spent at least $16.6 million so far, and the pro-Santorum super PAC, Red White and Blue, has spent at least $5.4 million so far.
Combining these admittedly rough and incomplete metrics, then, we get the following picture:
- Romney $63.9 million, 4.1 million votes, $15.59 per vote.
- Gingrich $25.4 million, 2.2 million votes, $11.55 per vote.
- Santorum $16.5 million, 2.9 million votes, $5.69 per vote.
These ratios are quite significant when you consider that the biggest states in Romney’s win column — Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Illinois — were all states in which his campaign and super PAC vastly outspent Romney’s rivals in advertising, Romney’s 7-to-1 ad ratio against Santorum in Illinois being the most recent example.
Romney is winning primaries with lopsided money advantages he won’t have in the general election and, as Gingrich noted during his speech Thursday in Baton Rouge, the negativity of Romney’s primary campaign has driven down turnout and dampened conservative enthusiasm. If Mitt is indeed “inevitable” as the nominee — and see my column today for a solid pushback against that spin — then the omens for November are not encouraging.
I remain convinced that a sort of hocus-pocus of political prestidigitation has been performed so far in the 2012 campaign, and the Republican electorate is beginning to see through the illusion. This could be seen from the February fundraising reports, showing that Santorum ($9 million for the month) made big strides toward closing the money gap with Romney ($12 million), while Gingrich’s campaign stumbled toward bankruptcy, with Newt’s February fundraising falling to $2.3 million, finishing the month with more debt than cash on hand.
The Gingrich campaign death-watch — see today’s New York Times article by Trip Gabriel as a sort of first draft of the obit — is now underway. By delaying their dismal February financial report until the last minute (they blurted the ugly truth to Politico the day the FEC report was due), Gingrich’s campaign was able to maintain a mirage of viability for nearly three weeks into March, but that’s all over now.
The decisive shift of conservative support toward Santorum (as evidenced by his 3-to-1 margin over Gingrich in Louisiana) has given him renewed momentum. While the delegate math still favors Romney, there are still eight days before next week’s primaries in Wisconsin and Maryland, and then Santorum gets a three-week breathing spell before the multi-state contests on April 24. While many conservative pundits have resigned themselves to Romney’s inevitability, Republican primary voters may have different ideas.
No predictions about the final outcome, but here’s one short-term prediction: Before this week is over, we’ll get devastating news accounts about the financial plight of the Gingrich campaign. And once there’s blood in the water, the sharks will come circling around Newt. Just imagine yourself as a vendor to the Gingrich campaign, waiting for an overdue payment, and then reading that New York Times story about Newt rolling across rural Louisiana, where “a 10-car motorcade conveys him like a head of state, three police cars with flashing lights leading a Secret Service detail and shiny S.U.V.’s for Mr. Gingrich and his staff.” All this, to get 16 percent of the vote?
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corvair| 3.26.12 @ 1:02PM
I believe Ross Kaminsky's point was that the Whiner doesn't appeal to independent and center right voters.
He doesn't have the money because he can't get donations because he's not an attractive candidate. IMO, a looser.
He's not winning now against a better funded candidate, what will he do against the money machine Obama.
Robert, give it up!
Lesser Weevil| 3.26.12 @ 1:58PM
Well, certainly Rick comes across a lot looser than than the super-tight Mittbot. I doubt that either of them is up to the job, sadly.
corvair| 3.26.12 @ 3:36PM
Oops. I meant "loser"
Dai Alanye | 3.26.12 @ 1:15PM
Romney's campaign has been supported by a series of myths, among which are his electability against Obama and his inevitability regarding the nomination. There are others, of course, such as his business experience and his conversion to conservatism, but the first two have been perhaps the most important.
Andrew P| 3.26.12 @ 1:51PM
The primary reason the Media supports Mittens is that Romney has personal wealth and thus can buy more advertising than his rivals. His rich contributors see the same thing. A guy with money is more likely to win because he can buy more ads, so they support him with contributions. Virtually all Romney's money has come from big donors. Ordinary voters do not give $$ to Romney.
Bob K.| 3.26.12 @ 1:20PM
$31.2 million bucks, huh!
Maybe that explains the call I got yesterday from the Romney campaign asking for a donation?
Drek| 3.26.12 @ 1:27PM
You're guy acted real "presidential" throwing Zimmerman under the bus.
But this isn't the first time he went trolling/pandering for black votes is it?
None of us can forget him promising to allow felons and prisoners to vote during the SC debate!
A real piece of work!
And a lawyer to boot!
A lawyer, a lawyer spouting off without any firm understanding yet what happened.
And now we know this guy had a broken nose, and evidence of being bashed around the head. We have information that he mentored a little black kid.
And you went to the mattresses for Santorum.
Bob| 3.26.12 @ 1:45PM
I think you're on the wrong post buddy.
Drek| 3.26.12 @ 1:54PM
About what? The details of what went down in Florida, or the details of Santorum's comments the other day?
It's very possible I'm still in the dark on the details in Florida, in as much as conflicting reports emerged. BUT there sure are reports circulating that certainly tend to corroborate and validate Zimmerman's story, and not the narrative of his accusers.
Moreover, where's the outrage against the media using a picture that's years old, that makes the victim appear much younger than he is, and where's the outrage about Martin's skin tone being bleached in some of the photos circulating?
Drek| 3.26.12 @ 2:42PM
AND BOB,
please go check out right now Professor Jacobson over at LEGAL INSURRECTION!
New details are emerging that fully back up Zimmerman!
The fact that this case is going to a grand jury is an outrage!
David W| 3.26.12 @ 1:42PM
If Romney is the nominee and flubs the election like McCain did (and there is plenty of evidence that Obama is a miserable failure) then that should be it for the GOP. The conservatives should revolt and start the "Conservative" Party and let the GOP die the death that the RINOs and the Republican establishment seem to want.
Bob| 3.26.12 @ 1:47PM
I think that will be inevitable if Obama wins, and even if Obama loses it's a possibility. The Tea Party formed after Republican defeat in '08. They were tired of Republicans pandering to liberals and decided to do something about it. If Republicans continue this losing strategy, conservatives will start abandoning the Republican Party and either make the Tea Party an official party or organize their own political party to counteract the Democrats and Republicans.
Bob| 3.26.12 @ 1:43PM
It is amazing how much money Romney has spent just to stay ahead of his rivals in the race. Will he have enough to take on Obama's Billion Dollar Election Machine? Not to mention the mainstream media which refuses to criticize Obama.
Casey Abell| 3.26.12 @ 1:49PM
Gotta admit, Russ is a brave guy on Santorum-For-President, er, American Spectator. McCain and Hillyer take turns bashing Kaminsky for saying not-nice things about their beloved Rick.
But I doubt any of this will faze Russ. Like everybody else except hard-right social cons, he just can't abide the Santorum Sanctimony.
Drek| 3.26.12 @ 2:25PM
It's not the sanctimony that bothers me, occasionally it grates, but that's not it.
It's just that other than positions he's taken on the campaign trail, what has he accomplished during his time in the Senate?
What has he behind him that tells him he should be President?
Where's his record?
What legislation has he authored, has he manipulated through either House, that he had passed?
What committee did he run?
Was he ever on the Senate Select Intelligence Committee?
What understanding of military matters, procurement, policy, strategy, does he possess?
In many ways he's as unworthy of the office as is Romney himself. Now he's not a flopper, {sure he flopped on some issues, but that's normal and not disqualifying}, but he's a panderer.
And he smugly moralizes to boot.
The overall package is unattractive, unappealing, unpersuasive, let's put it that way.
smokedaddy| 3.26.12 @ 8:04PM
You're kidding right? Right? I mean, in twelve years as Senator from PENNSYLVANIA (not South Carolina, or Utah, or Arizona, etc.) our man Rick took the lead on welfare reform, tax policy, and Mideast policy, not to mention those dreaded social issues that actual real people in places like Ohio & Iowa seem to care about. So sorry if he wasn't on your favorite committee. Too bad Michelle B didn't make it. There's a dream candidate!
Dai Alanye | 3.26.12 @ 8:58PM
This Drek guy seems to be absolutely clueless. It's hard to find as effective a leader as Santorum in either the House and Senate during his terms.
Derek Leaberry| 3.26.12 @ 3:05PM
Question regarding "hard-right social cons" and morality- Forty percent of American births are illegitimate, itself a sign of a decline in morals. What percent of illegitimate children will be productive members of society? What percent will be net takers from society? I would argue that a decline in morals not only weakens the cultural fabric of society but also is damaging to economic well-being of the nation.
Drek| 3.26.12 @ 3:27PM
Santorum isn't wrong about the dire social and economic consequences of such behavior.
None on the right that I know of have suggested as much.
It's just not the battle we're waging right now.
He's firing artillery on a hill that we're presently contesting.
He needs to get with the program.
Casey Abell| 3.26.12 @ 3:37PM
"Forty percent of American births are illegitimate, itself a sign of a decline in morals. What percent of illegitimate children will be productive members of society? What percent will be net takers from society?"
If you think that Rick Sanctimony's preaching about other people's sex live will have the slightest effect on illegitimacy rates...well, I've got a nice bridge for you in Brooklyn, cheap.
Santorum's preaching does only one thing: turn off everybody not to the right of the Ayatollah on social issues. Which is a real great recipe for beating Obama.
Casey Abell| 3.26.12 @ 3:38PM
Hm, should have been "sex lives" not "sex live." Is that a Feudian slip?
Casey Abell| 3.26.12 @ 3:38PM
And another "Freudian slip." I'm having an interesting day.
Nick| 3.26.12 @ 4:58PM
Mr. Abell,
"Which is a real great recipe for beating Obama."
And nominating McLame 2.o is the way to beat O'Bama? In what universe? O'Romney will cause more conservatives to stay home than McShame did in '08.
Why can't you mushy-moderates understand this fact of life?
It's A Cunning Plan Actually!| 3.26.12 @ 5:27PM
Nick, those trying to split conservatism into two halves - fiscal & social 1) do not know what conservatism really is, 2) they value the almighty dollar over everything else, 3)they don't understand that fiscal prosperity & morality cannot be separated. An immoral society is broken & will not prosper, & 4) they fear candidates of faith moreso than the current administration ( Sarah Palin is a perfect example. The left haven't been the only loons savaging her & her family since the 2008 election. many so-called conservatives have gladly helped the left trash her & any candidate who is honest & open about their faith. They fear a "religious theocracy" that would make them change their ways. If they had any sense they would know God will not force Himself on anyone. They must come to Him on His terms.), & 5) they still buy into the utter b.s. the Obamedia & Republican "Establishment" tell them. Take care Nick & go with God.
Jake| 3.26.12 @ 2:35PM
The upcoming primary states will be much more expensive venues to buy advertising.
Santorum's SuperPAC reported having $ 365,000 left on hand.
Romney's SuperPAC
had $ 10,500,000 on hand.
As of the last reporting period at the end of Feb ,
Santorum had 2.6 million on hand , no doubt a lot of that was spent on getting
his 8 or 10 delegates in Louisiana.
Romney had 7.2 million on hand at the last reporting period and barely campaigned in Louisiana and yet , won 4 or 5 delegates.
He got another delegate today previously pledged to Huntsman in NH.
The Missouri beauty contest that Santorum " won " in Feb
( per the media ) was just one part of a three part and convoluted process to award delegates.
It appears that Santorum did not organize
and compete in the recent Missouri caucuses ,
which allowed Romney and Paul to take many delegates that Santorum mistakenly thought were his.
" ..the Paul and the Romney camps had thoroughly trained volunteers on the ground who were well versed in party rules and how to best utilize them for their candidate's benefit. "
" Ridgway noted that the Santorum and the Gingrich campaigns, for whatever reasons,
apparently were unable to map out and implement a well orchestrated plan to get the most delegates."
http://www.examiner.com/conser.....z1qFJm3Dly
On the April 24 Pennsylvania primary , the unbound delegates to the convention are elected on primary day .
Candidates normally field slates of allied delegates to run on primary day.
Santorum did not make the effort in his former home state to field any slate of delegates ,
so he could win the popular vote
and actually lose the delegates to the better organized Romney .
Santorum has been an organizational , ground game and fundraising mess this entire primary season.
Not only was he ill prepared to run for president , but, he lacks the overwhelming support and organization of Romney and Obama.
Logically , realistically and mathematically, it's all over for Santorum except for the shouting.
Molly| 3.26.12 @ 4:00PM
I have said on numerous occasions that Mitt Romney should send Newt Gingrich a big thank you note when this is all over if he wins. (Still hoping for the if). I had not heard about the motorcade until this article and it makes me wonder how anyone at this point could still think he is an ethical person! He did a lot of good things in Congress and he can be a bull dog with the press, but this man is nothing more than a narcissist - and we already have one of those in the White House.
Clint| 3.26.12 @ 4:46PM
Romney's Crony Donors:
Goldman Sachs $535,680
JPMorgan Chase & Co $375,650
Morgan Stanley $323,800
Credit Suisse Group $299,160
Citigroup Inc $282,765
Bank of America $277,850
Kirkland & Ellis $222,702
Barclays $221,650
PricewaterhouseCoopers $191,500
HIG Capital $188,500
Blackstone Group $178,800
Wells Fargo $163,200
UBS AG $156,550
Bain Capital $154,000
EMC Corp $128,300
Citadel Investment Group $122,125
Elliott Management $121,000
Bain & Co $113,300
Sullivan & Cromwell $107,150
The Villages $97,500
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To An Open Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.27.12 @ 12:52PM
So what moron? Are you and others here STUPIDLY trying to incinuate that campaign money spent translates one-on-one into votes FOR the spending candidate? Are you also trying to [as your MEDIA MATTERS BOSS @1600 also proclaims] that campaign financing by corporations and their working employees is wrong, illegal or unethical [again ''''''STUPIDLY''''''] ? If so you are FOS, and the SCOTUS has previously ruled otherwise, so SHOVE IT WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE! Your whinny horse-excrement IS DISPICABLE, in that there's nothing wrong about such activity and additionally most political advertising by REPUBLICANS is a waste of money since Republican voters/constituents are too smart/intelligent to become swayed physchologically by such [they make up their opinions about candidates for intelligent readings, researchings and conservative TV/radio commentators which are informative and factual]. Democrats on the other hand are so STUPIDLY influenced by such that they lemmingly vote for whoever they are brainwashingly told to do so for by these ads, and that's why they're STUPIDS. Don't attempt to use your BS to insinuate that the rest of us are similar to these dumbsrs Democrat constituents by being influenced ultimately by these superficial advertisements. Just because your Catholic Crusading Boy and/or your LJ TOO SHORT SHORTS BOY is lacking in the political polls and shy of votes, don't attempt to asininely blame same on another candidates campaign advertisements!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!