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The Spectacle Blog
The Santorum campaign held a press tele-conference earlier today in which they claimed they are doing far better collectively in caucuses in Iowa, Missouri, and Washington State (and probably Alaska, too, although they didn’t focus on this) than most media understand. They say they are picking up numerous delegates as the processes go on, and that Ron Paul is picking up some, too, and that Romney is losing big time. The way this can work is complicated, but definitely, definitely a facet of caucuses, where pluralities can be turned into majorities by good uses of alliances. (I’ve even been in a caucus where I actually helped turn a minority into a plurality, but that took some help by some idiocy among the David Duke supporters whom I was opposing.) Now it must be said that Santorum’s folks were doing projections to final results from preliminary events in district caucuses, and they haven’t released their lists of state-convention delegates in the applicable states. But as I reported yesterday about the Louisiana contest coming up (a process with which I am intimately familiar):
Word on the ground is that Paul is extremely well organized for the caucuses. It might be that the only way to defeat him is for the Santorum and Gingrich organizations to join forces, at least in tactical alliances if not formally, at each of the caucuses.
But here’s the deal: If Santorum wins a narrow victory on Saturday and gains, say, 6 delegates to 5 each for Gingrich and Romney… but Gingrich later drops out and his Louisiana campaign organization folds into Santorum’s, then the caucus rules (which are too complicated to explain here) are such that Santorum could come close to sweeping the other 23 delegates on June 2. (Obviously, the same would be true if Gingrich and Romney joined forces, but that isn’t going to happen.)
This is another example of how Gingrich’s presence in the race directly hurts Santorum.
As it might be in Louisiana later this Spring, it already could well be occurring in Missouri, Iowa, and Washington State. In other words, what the Santorum team claims is certainly plausible. Whether or not their information is correct is anybody’s guess, of course. There is no good way, right now, to validate it.
Santorum’s folks also argue that the winner-take-all delegate awards in Florida and Arizona were against RNC rules (a fact confirmed by six-term RNC member and rules guru Morton Blackwell), and that if a challenge forcing those allocations to become proportional is upheld as it should be, then they will gain a few more delegates, and Gingrich and Paul should gain as well, while Romney loses big-time.
They therefore extrapolate the following numbers of what they claim are the likely actual delegate counts of contests already reported on publicly, from a combination of good performances in ongoing caucuses plus a “proper” allocation of Arizona and Florida delegates:
Romney 435, Santorum 311, Gingrich 158, Paul 91. In short, they say Romney is actually well below the 50% threshold needed for a first-ballot nomination victory.
Despite my obvious preference for Santorum, this is not advocacy, but merely reporting. I have no way to know if their reports on district caucus results are correct. All I know is that it is certainly possible.
Here’s one example they gave, from a district in Washington State. In the balloting a few weeks back in that district, they say, Romney got 47% of the vote, Paul got 25%, and Santorum got 18%. But when delegates to the state convention were actually chosen at the caucuses, Santorum got 4, Gingrich and Paul 3 each, and Romney just 2. The reason this is plausible is that conservatives have a history of over-performing in caucuses. Plus, if Gingrich and Santorum and Paul all joined forces, their combined 53 percent of so would outweigh Romney’s 47 percent.
If this doesn’t make sense to you, then, well, you’ve probably never participated in a hotly contested caucus/convention system. Trust me: It’s doable.
Of course, things could change at the state conventions in question. Perhaps Romney’s delegates could figure out tactics to counteract any advantages the Santorum folks have built up. The point is, though, that Romney’s “inevitability” might not be so, well, inevitable. For a political junkie, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
View all comments (19) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
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Al Adab| 3.20.12 @ 4:29PM
This points out a flaw in the conventional wisdom regarding the GOP nomination. Romney may gain enough delegates through his plurality "victories" and while the GOP voters may "hold their noses" and vote for him, they will not work for him. An unenthusiastic, unmotivated electorate is a road to failure.
spike59| 3.21.12 @ 6:23AM
'while the GOP voters may "hold their noses" and vote for him, they will not work for him. An unenthusiastic, unmotivated electorate is a road to failure.'
----------------------------------------------------
if the GOP voters cannot find sufficient motivation and enthusiasm in the effort to unseat the worst President in history, then they deserve the loss-eyes on the prize, people
Marco2| 3.20.12 @ 4:31PM
I hope this is just the usual pack of Santo lies. The sooner his holiness exits right, the better. But who knows? Satan is everywhere.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 3.20.12 @ 5:27PM
Unless you're a homosexual voter you have nothing to worry about from Rick Santorum.
Dai Alanye | 3.20.12 @ 6:12PM
The Romney campaign is robotic, somewhat like its candidate. But if ads and recorded phonecalls have an effect, Mitt has an advantage. This is a contest between money and conventional thinking versus passion, hard work and creative thinking. So far the financier has an edge over the man with better ideas, but time will tell.
Clint| 3.20.12 @ 6:29PM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
WL| 3.20.12 @ 11:43PM
If you think posting this same old bumper sticker would visually burn it into all of our brains....you my good man are correct....
Every time I look down at the pot after a good sitting I turn around and for just a fraction of a second I could SWEAR that I see...
"We are being set up...RINO-CINO Flunkie...stooge....etc etc etc."
somnolence| 3.20.12 @ 7:15PM
Well, count me among the RINO-CINO flunkies, then. Romney currently has a solid 521 delegates, and Santorum's wishful thinking will be outvoted, as the one gentleman from the RNC mentioned above will be by his lonesome. The objective is to beat Obama, and there is no place for me in a party that wishes otherwise. Mitt is the one to do it.
Ted| 3.21.12 @ 9:48AM
The problem here is that everyone seems to be focusing only on beating Obama, as opposed to beating Obama and knowing who our candidate is.
This is just another version of the Democrats's ABB from 2004 (Anybody But Bush). They got ABB in 2008, and look where that has gotten us.
The hard sober truth is that Mitt Romney has never been and will never be a conservative in any way shape or form. His record in Massachusetts proves that. Past is prologue.
Derrick| 3.20.12 @ 9:13PM
What a fool believes.
9thID| 3.20.12 @ 10:16PM
To beat Comrade Barry conservatives need to nominate anyone but RomneyCare, Newtered, and Robespierre Ron...
SusyQue| 3.21.12 @ 9:22AM
It would help if you would write in standard English!
WL| 3.20.12 @ 10:20PM
Look folks...I am as anti-Romney as any other conservative...but I think it's getting pretty close to time for us to understand the writing on the wall...is it time yet? I don't pretend to be sure...but we might want to start getting ready to do our best to energize ourselves and those around us....because, even us critics know that we HAVE to slow down this downward spiral that our system of government is in. We cannot stop it or even THINK about reversing it with Willard...but we may have a little more time that we will with Obama at the helm...
The question we must sincerely ask ourselves is this: Are we better off with letting it go up in a ball of flames by withholding support from Willard?? and allowing Obama to be re-elected? OR are we better off buying more time with Romney?
I am not counting Rick S. out yet...but we may very well have to pretty soon...and we will have one sorry choice to make.
WL| 3.20.12 @ 10:24PM
There are many of us from both sides of that question...and we love to blow smoke at each other, but it really is a serious question I am weighing in my mind...
Knowingly getting duped by our own party...
Or allowing a worse pack of liars to run roughshod over any resistance we might be able to make..and run the risk of not being able to save anything...
I just don't know.
Casey Abell| 3.21.12 @ 7:53AM
"Despite my obvious preference for Santorum, this is not advocacy, but merely reporting. I have no way to know if their reports on district caucus results are correct. "
Well, at least we get some humor from Quin. Like he doesn't advocate for Santorum. Yeah, right. This is the guy who goes ballistic when Michigan awards one (1) more delegate to Romney than Quin thinks Mitt should have.
SusyQue| 3.21.12 @ 9:18AM
Sir, I found your article disgustingly biased,
devious and ignoble. Four years ago, Sentorum
fully supported Romney and even praised him. Yet, last night he says he never changes...!
Oldefarte| 3.21.12 @ 10:56AM
To anyone reading this THAT HAS WHAT'S KNOWN AS A ''''''BRAIN'''''' [or if you will an INTELLECT], please please contemplate Root's editorial point below and understand that the main/whole focus of this election is to WIN [ie elect our Republican nominee and not to alternatively LOSE TO OBAMA/DEMOCRATS]. Romney at this stage represents the one/only hope for our Republican cause. Is he my favorite-preferred candidate? Absolutely not! But we have no other choice. Santorum is the epitome of a disasterous defeat for the Republican Party and will be hammered for his one-trick-pony messaging of morality, Catholism, riligious values that he continuously proclaims within his campaign. His other messaging is simply so too generalistic simply because he [as Mitt rightly proclaims] is an economic lightweight. Not that Santorum's heart is not in the right place, but he's simply ignorant and inexperienced [and unconcerned] about things financial. All he represents is G-d and religion, and as such will be destroyed by Obama and Democrats in November is we are STUPID ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIS CANDIDACY TO INTERFERE WITH THE INEVITABILITY OF A ROMNEY NOMINATION. Republicans are being played [as Root claims] by Democrats by diverting the campaign discussion from Obama's/Democrats' pathetic economic policies onto a discussion of religion by our crusader Santorum and we simply must WAKE UP AND CONCENTRATE ON NOMINATING A CAPABLE AND ECPERIENCED ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ORIENTED CANDIDATE ROMNEY AND THEREAFTER ALLOWING AND SUPPORTING HIM TO DEFEAT OBAMA AND DEMOCRATS [THERE WILL BE NO TOMORROWS AFTER 11/4/12 AND THIS COUNTRY WILL DIE FINANCIALLY IF WE DON'T DO THIS]!!!!!!!!! :
'.....Republicans Should Avoid Social Issues
Monday, March 19, 2012 12:36 PM
By: Wayne Allyn Root Rick Santorum could be the worst thing to happen to the GOP — ever. Worse even than George W. Bush. And that’s saying a lot. Bush did so much damage to the GOP brand, he almost destroyed the party forever. It was George Bush who brought us Barack Obama. Few Americans voted for Obama, they just voted for ABB (Anyone But Bush). Now the GOP has a golden opportunity. Obama has wrecked the U.S. economy from sea to shining sea. He has turned off voters by the millions. By historical standards, based on the current disastrous economic and unemployment numbers, Obama is virtually unelectable. Obama is a magician. He has made voters forget Bush in only three years. That's a pretty darn amazing trick.The proof is in the recent polls. This has been perhaps the worst month for the GOP in modern political history. The message is no longer jobs, rising gas prices, chronic long-term unemployment, or crumbling real estate.
The message is about women’s health, the right to use contraception, Planned Parenthood funding, Rush Limbaugh’s use of a crude term to describe a young female law student, and whether Republicans like sex, or hate women. It just doesn’t get any worse than this. And in recent polls, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama.
The GOP has been handed a miracle. His name is Barack Obama. It’s almost impossible to lose to Obama. Think of his actions in the past month.
He’s bribed women with free contraception. He’s bribed Hispanics by hinting he’ll give amnesty to illegal aliens in his second term. He’s bribed homeowners with a $25 billion bank settlement aimed at those who don’t pay their mortgages. He’s bribed environmentalists by cancelling the Keystone Pipeline. He hands out gifts like he's Santa Claus. And yet he’s still losing to Mitt Romney. After all that bribery. After all the stupid things said by Republican presidential candidates and conservative talk-show hosts. That’s called a gift from God.Mitt Romney has it won. All he has to do is avoid talking about his wife’s two Cadillacs, his $250 million fortune, his money in the Cayman Islands, and his dog on the roof of the family car. It’s over. Shut up and you take back the White House. You’d think conservatives would be rejoicing. Licking their lips. They’ve found a new Gipper, as handsome as a movie star, with the perfect family, and a 20 percent Reagan-like across-the-board tax cut. It’s time to party like it’s 1980 again.Enter Rick Santorum. It appears that conservatives and Christians have decided to self-destruct. They can’t take success. They must desperately want four more years of Obama and the Democrat Party. You know, that organization that stands for massive taxes, spending, entitlement and debt, income redistribution, sky-high taxes, sky-high electric bills, and a country based on social justice and affirmative action. Oh, and don’t forget amnesty for illegal immigrants and a union in every workplace. Lovely agenda.Looking at that agenda and the 60,000+ new rules and regulations put forth by Obama in only three years; and the $5 trillion of new debt in only three years. you’d think winning might just be important to someone other than Charlie Sheen. But the conservative and Christian base just can’t get away from Rick Santorum. They want to party like it’s 1875. They want to turn the clock back to Victorian America, Prohibition, banning of sin, and chastity belts. Here is what common sense should tell conservatives. The tea party chose to purposely stay away from social issues. They literally banned talk of anything besides economics. They chose to promote smaller government, lower taxes, less spending, fewer entitlements and lower debt — instead of the right to contraception. Amazing how that works!
It’s like magic. Embrace issues that a majority of Americans believe in, and presto — you win elections. Sure enough by avoiding divisive and unpopular social issues, the tea party led the GOP to the biggest landslide victory in modern political history in 2010.Understanding that, why would you choose to change the topic to contraception? To calling women who have sex “sluts”? To banning pornography in a nation that obviously watches it in record numbers? That was Rick Santorum’s new gem only days ago. As president he says he will ban porn on the Internet, in the privacy of your bedroom, on your computer, and even in the privacy of your hotel room. Now that should really turn on voters. That is certainly a job creator. The country has no jobs and Santorum wants to change the topic to banning your personal behavior in your bedroom. “Ban the porn, because I stand for smaller government.” Now that’s a rallying cry for conservatives. Marching in lock step to mass suicide.Think of it this way folks. America is like a bankrupt company, heavily in debt, bleeding jobs, desperately in need of a turnaround. What America needs is a businessman, not a community organizer. And not a Pope either.
What America needs is someone who understands how to turn around a failed company. How to create jobs. And yes, even how to fire people doing a bad job (think millions of government employees employed in useless jobs, think poorly performing teachers). We need someone who knows how to slash a budget in order to save the company (or in this case, the country).My advice as an objective outsider to Republicans — go back to the medicine cabinet, take those 100 pills out of your hand, put them back in the bottle, and put the bottle back. Charlie Sheen was right. It’s time for the GOP to choose WINNING......'
Oldefarte| 3.21.12 @ 11:04AM
PS: Maybe the libertarianism of Paul and Root should be extrapolated into a new political party, since obviously the Democratic Party has bee taken over by the extreme radicals of Obama, Pilosi, Reid, Durbin etc; while the Republican Party is on the verge of being taken over by the conservative religious radicals of Santorum etc!!!!!!!!!
porno | 3.22.12 @ 5:34AM
Talking about real estate loving it Here’s some mildly amuzing stuff I found: Thought for the day? : Crime doesn’t pay… does that mean my job is a crime?