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The Spectacle Blog
In a short video rejecting certain “conventional wisdom,” the Gallup organization makes a few interesting arguments based on poll results.
One is that there is not (at least not yet) a connection between high gas prices and President Obama’s approval rating.
More interesting is Gallup’s data suggesting that among Newt Gingrich’s supporters, their “second choice” is split roughly evenly between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. If correct, a Gingrich exit from the presidential race would therefore not benefit Santorum (and thus harm Romney) nearly to the extent that conventional wisdom of Gingrich representing primarily another “anti-Romney” choice would imply.
If Gingrich’s goal (as he’s stated it) is to prevent Romney from getting the nomination, then his staying in the race is indeed the right strategy, even if not very likely to succeed. If it is true that Gingrich’s exit would benefit Romney nearly as much as it would benefit Santorum, then the addition of those votes and delegates to Romney over the course of the next few months would likely give Romney the needed 1144 delegates.
Separate from the question of whether Newt’s ego would ever allow him to get out of the race, his current insistence on staying in for the duration is, based on the Gallup numbers, the most rational way to attempt to deny Mitt Romney the nomination since his exit could not propel Santorum to outright victory during the primary season.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/03/20/gallup-challenges-conventional
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Mike 3/505| 3.20.12 @ 2:25PM
Wayull....gaullleeeee! Ya mean newt ain't quite as dumb/egocentric as we were touting him to be?
spike59| 3.21.12 @ 6:08AM
dumb? no...
egocentric? oh, HAYULL, YEAH-on a scale that rivals ObaMao and Bubba Clinton
LiveFreeOrDie| 3.20.12 @ 2:28PM
I'm baffled by the traction Newt has been able to get. His followers are non-thinkers.
Newt is part of the problem, not the solution. Newt's goals have nothing to do with Romney. I judge the man by his actions, not his latest statement. Newt is interested in what benefits Newt and always has been.
The indication his "supporters" vote's would be split evenly can and will change when he finally drops out as the dynamic will have changed.
Derek Leaberry| 3.20.12 @ 2:41PM
Sadly, the chances that Romney is the Republican nominee is over 95 %. Even if Romney is 100 delegates short of the 1144 to nominate, Ron Paul will endorse Romney and the pressure from the Republican elite to nominate Romney will be overwhelming. Hopefully, Santorum will dig in his heels and fight to the bitter end just as the Army of Northern Virginia did in 1865.
The Republican elite, a coterie of folks who have wallowed in arrogance and discredit for the last 25 years, will get their empty vessel-chameleon as its nominee. On the remote chance that Romney is elected in November, little of note will be accomplished in 2013. Can conservatives expect anything else from a governing core centered around Romney, McConnell, Boehner and Cantor? The Republicans will lose their Congressional majorities in 2014 and 2007-08 will rise its ugly head.
It's A Cunning Plan, Actually| 3.20.12 @ 2:49PM
Mr. Leaberry, how dare you make sense on The American Spectator blog?/ Romney is not only most "electable", but also inevitable. Our "betters" have told us so, then it must be true. The day after election day here is going to be interesting to say the least.
Derek Leaberry| 3.20.12 @ 3:23PM
Even "Turd Blossom" himself, George W. Bush's pumpkin-headed alter-ego and coatman Karl Rove, believes it is Mitten's turn. Sometimes it would appear that your average Republican has the soul of a corporate vice-president.
Marco2| 3.20.12 @ 4:39PM
Rather than be wiped out, the ANV first, ran away, and second, ran up the white flag. Perhaps General Custer would be a better example for the coming Santorum massacre.
Clint| 3.20.12 @ 6:20PM
BullShit.
"Ron Paul: I won’t commit to backing Romney if he’s the nominee
“I’d talk to him and see what kind of a foreign policy he is going to have,” Paul, a congressman from Texas, told reporters at a rally two days before most of Missouri’s counties hold their Republican caucuses. “Mitt’s a friend and we talk a lot. We just disagree on the issues.”…
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
spike59| 3.21.12 @ 6:10AM
at this point, DrEarmark's opinions are slightly less valuable than those of, say, Blowhard Biden...he's gone from being a joke to being a punchline
Casey Abell| 3.20.12 @ 3:17PM
"Hopefully, Santorum will dig in his heels and fight to the bitter end just as the Army of Northern Virginia did in 1865."
Um, maybe not the best analogy. I don't think the South won.
After Louisiana the campaign trial heads to generally unfriendly territory for Santorum. If the losses start piling up, Santorum will seem more and more like a bitter loser except to the hardest-core supporters.
The idea that Santorum could still swipe the convention from Romney is far-fetched. Romney has already outpolled Santorum by 1.2 million votes. The margin will probably grow with big Romney-friendly states like CA and NY coming up.
All those GOP voters will not be real thrilled if their guy gets the shaft at the convention, despite winning the most votes and the most delegates. The notion that they will quietly acquiesce in a Santorum power grab on the convention floor is...let's say, not convincing.
Casey Abell| 3.20.12 @ 3:21PM
Meant to say the "campaign trail," not the "campaign trial." But maybe it is a trial.
Derek Leaberry| 3.20.12 @ 3:32PM
That Santorum resembles Lee's army makes my point. Just as Grant and the Yankees pretty much overcame Lee and the South through massively superior resources, so has Romney overcome the very improbable Santorum, who lost his Senate re-election in negatively record form and was an afterthought until three months ago. That Santorum made it close is astounding and victories in Michigan and Ohio may have been game-changers. Romney's victory leaves him unloved by most in the party and hated by many. A majority of Republicans feel about as excited by a Romney president as a child would feel if told that he would eat lima beans for dinner for the next month.
Casey Abell| 3.20.12 @ 3:43PM
"Romney's victory leaves him unloved by most in the party and hated by many."
And Santorum is more loved and less hated? How come he's gotten so many fewer votes than Romney?
And please don't give me the standard complaints about money. Santorum has gotten oceans of free publicity through the debates and other media. GOP voters have had plenty of chances to hear his messsage. Over and over they've heard his message. They're still voting in much greater numbers for Romney.
If Santorum attempts a convention-floor steal of the nomination from a candidate who beat him by big margins among actual GOP voters...well, you'll see a guy who really is hated by a lot of Republicans.
Derek Leaberry| 3.20.12 @ 4:21PM
In a television-saturated and -dominated culture, it is no wonder that Republican voters- most not much more intelligent than the imbeciles and degenerates who make up the other party- have been swayed by the heavy television buys that Romney and company have made. Television is a powerful medium that promotes the facile and the stupid and dominance in television means dominance in the culture and in politics. Romney bought the television time and has won the primaries.
Mr. Abell, I don't care much for the Republican Party, a political vessel aptly called by the late Sam Francis "the stupid party". The only use for the Republican Party is to promote conservative goals. As Romney is not a conservative, does not plan to promote conservative goals, and will most likely inflict a crash-and-burn presidency on the conservative persuasion, I will not support him as president. As second terms are usually catastrophic for the president's party, an Obama victory would be preferable to one by Romney.
LiveFreeOrDie| 3.20.12 @ 4:29PM
"How come he's gotten so many fewer votes than Romney?"
Could it be in the absence of Ron Paul Santorum garners most of those votes?
"How come he's gotten so many fewer votes than Romney?"
Is the margin that large? Primary results below, Romney/Santorum respectively:
03/13 AL 29.0% 34.5%
03/13 HI 44.5% 25.3%
03/13 MS 30.6% 32.8%
03/10 KS 20.9% 51.2%
03/10 WY 44.0% 27.5%
03/06 AK 32.4% 29.2%
03/06 GA 25.9% 19.6%
03/06 ID 61.6% 18.2%
03/06 MA 72.2% 12.0%
03/06 ND 23.7% 39.7%
03/06 OH 37.9% 37.1%
LiveFreeOrDie| 3.20.12 @ 4:31PM
Quoting twice was an error and not meant to make any sort of statement.
Drek| 3.20.12 @ 5:01PM
Isn't it just rich, the endless accusations that Gingrich's "ego" controls him, -------- but nary a word about the ego of Romney, a guy who has spent seven years trying to force himself, {rape?} on the rank and file of the GOP.
spike59| 3.21.12 @ 6:15AM
isn't it rich that Newtie is STILL blowing million$$$$ running sophomoric radio spots against Romney...in VIRGINIA, a state whose primary was on Super Tuesday-the same primary that Newt's bungling campaign couldn't even figure out how to get on the ballot? it's just one more indication of Newt's enormous ego that, given he OBVIOUSLY has no chance at winning the nomination, he's perfectly willing to help ObaMao's re-election chances by blowing up his own party's likely nominee