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The Spectacle Blog
If Romney pulls off a win in one of the Southern states tonight, it will naturally raise questions about whether Santorum and Gingrich split the conservative vote. The early exit poll data here may be instructive.
In Alabama, where the initial results look best for Santorum, self-described conservatives voted 37 percent for Santorum, 33 percent for Gingrich, and 25 percent for Romney. “Very conservative” voters (36 percent of the electorate) went 41 percent for Santorum, 35 percent for Gingrich, and 19 percent for Romney. The 49 percent plurality of Alabama Republicans who thought Romney wasn’t conservative enough voted 44 percent for Santorum, 37 percent for Gingrich, and 8 percent for Romney (7 percent voted for Paul).
In Mississippi, where the early numbers look best for Romney, conservatives split 33 percent to 32 percent between Santorum and Gingrich. Very conservative voters — a 42 percent plurality of the state’s GOP primary electorate — split evenly between Santorum and Gingrich at 35 percent apiece. The 50 percent of voters who thought Romney’s positions weren’t conservative enough divided evenly between Santorum and Gingrich, at 39 percent each.
If these numbers hold up, it suggests that conservatives mostly coalesced around one candidate in Alabama and divided in Mississippi. We’ll see if the data changes as the results trickle in.
Drek| 3.13.12 @ 9:24PM
the unbalanced and overweening fear of losing to obama has clouded the judgement of far too many of the rank and file.
It's as Gingrich just observed, between the primaries and the convention, the party needs a "conversation."
We need to calm ourselves, candidly and frankly assess the merits and demerits of our candidates, we need to determine if some not presently in the race can still be brought in.
We need to focus our thoughts not just on victory in the Fall, but transforming our government thereafter.
Last night, Dick Morris went to bat for Romney, urging all to swing behind him, because supposedly we can't go to the convention without knowing who our candidate is. Morris said it's crazy to try to run a two month campaign to unseat the president.
But if our candidate supposedly only has two months to run his campaign against obama, by contrast that means that obama only has two months to slime, to smear and to destroy our candidate.
Obama is the known commodity, and everybody with half a brain knows the country is on the wrong track. Which means obama, with limited time, would have to define his opponent. Such an outpouring of concentrated venom towards our candidate would likely redact to his detriment, because it would allow everybody to see that the only thing obama has to offer is alinskyte tactics and failure.
A limited, constricted campaign might work to our benefit!
Mike 3/505| 3.13.12 @ 9:33PM
Drek...I agree....and the only one who can put that message across cogently in two months...is Gingrich.
Mike 3/505| 3.13.12 @ 9:31PM
Please...somebody Please....More than half of the voters...no...more than 60 percent are voting for other than Romney! If anyone needs to get out of this and let two duke it out...it needs to be Romney & Paul.
Drek| 3.13.12 @ 9:35PM
Yea, if anybody should leave it should be Ron Paul, who has wasted a good deal of time, and Romney, who is trying to force himself on the rank and file.
The situation is appalling!
Clint| 3.13.12 @ 10:10PM
Big Government Statist Ricky Specter-Santorum's Record On Voting For Earmarks, Even The Bridge To Nowhere, His Support For The Lobbyist "K-Street Project" , His Tariff Votes, Medicare Prescription Drugs, No Child Left Behind, Etc. Is Gonna Sink Him With Tea Party Patriots.
Ricky Specter-Santorum Is Our Useful Dupe To a Brokered Convention.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Drek| 3.13.12 @ 10:17PM
So yet again, Santorum has benefited by the attacks against Gingrich.
Just like his "victory" in Iowa.
9thID| 3.13.12 @ 10:53PM
Robespierre Ron: 0 for 30 -- and counting...
Clint| 3.13.12 @ 11:33PM
Israel Firster Smear Bund BibiBot Crybaby, 9th IDiot,
" 9thID| 3.7.12 @ 10:30AM
My worst fears are coming to fruition in that another Dole/McCain Redux looks inevitable. Hoping for the best is fast becoming; prepare to hunker down for another four of Comrade Barry. It may take another big loss for the GOP to go the way of the Whig Party..."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
9thID| 3.14.12 @ 10:01AM
Sure is creepy to have someone like Lord Farquaad Clint stalking you, but my remarks were made in reference to a Romney nod being a Redux. We do know this much, Robespierre Ron not only a loser, he is a anti-constitutional Voluntaryist loser...