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The Spectacle Blog
BuzzFeed is reporting that an internal strategy memo by Rick Santorum’s campaign can’t win the nomination outright before the convention, but could win in Tampa.
Majority Needed for Romney, Not for Santorum
Mitt Romney must have a majority on the first ballot in order to win the nomination because he will perform worse on subsequent ballots as grassroots conservative delegates decide to back the more conservative candidate. Subsequently, Santorum only needs to be relatively close on the initial ballot in order to win on a later ballot as Romney’s support erodes.
Santorum, like Ron Paul, is hoping to outperform his caucus-night showings at county and state conventions, thus walking away with more delegates than expected. There is already at least some anecdotal evidence that Paul is having some success with this strategy; perhaps Santorum can too, since in recent caucus states social conservatives have increasingly been organizing on his behalf.
BuzzFeed’s Zeke Miller concludes, “This is a winning-by-losing strategy - and a hard one to sell to voters and donors.” Miller may be right about donors, but I’m not so sure about voters. There are a lot of conservative primary voters out there who are least open to a contested convention and would like to deny Romney the nomination by any means necessary. They would regard as a strategy to deny Romney a majority as a victory of sorts, and might look favorably on any candidate with a plan to do so.
View all comments (33) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/03/12/report-santorum-memo-is-strate
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Eric Dondero | 3.12.12 @ 9:40AM
James, you will find any way possible to work in a positive spin for Ron Paul in whatever article you write about on the presidential race.
Why not report on the other breaking Buzzfeed piece; Ron Paul campaign losing their biggest donor - Peter Thiel, and campaign staffers having to live off of day-old pizza because they can no longer pay them?
Libertarians are abandoning Paul and flocking to our nominee - Mitt Romney.
W. James Antle III | 3.12.12 @ 10:18AM
Eric, you will find a way possible to work in your intralibertarian lover's quarrels into any article you read. The obvious point was to suggest a precedent for what Santorum is trying to do a state and local conventions, as the BuzzFeed story itself does.
W. James Antle III | 3.12.12 @ 10:20AM
I also don't see the Thiel story on BuzzFeed's site or on Google. Can you give us a link?
florin| 3.12.12 @ 10:29AM
And yet, Eric Dondero, very few give Romney credit when he wins, even when he wins big. It just doesn't make sense. Romney is not perfect but neither are Santorum or Gingrich, but Romney is a man of good character and family values, a great man of business and would make a wonderful president. I think Obama's people have people embedded everywhere to make it seem that Romney is not winning even when he wins...gingrich is a mean spirited, nasty vengeful old man and is staying in the race, he says, to deny delegates to Romney. And so we will have 4 more years of Obama...this, by now, should be a race between Santorum and Romney...and even though gingrich might win Alabama and Mississipi, he has no chance of getting the nomination...the gambling mogul from Las Vegas should stop giving millions to Gingrich unless he too just wants Romney to lose...
Drek| 3.12.12 @ 11:14AM
It's easy to understand, the rank and file don't want a guy who was for gay marriage, for gun control, for abortion, and for writing planned parenthood into his signature legislative accomplishment, romneycare.
REAL change requires REAL change. And that isn't Romney.
Everybody ask yourself this, --------------------- do we want the candidate that Barbara Bush approves of?
I don't think so...........
Clint| 3.12.12 @ 11:14AM
Uh Oh !
The Screwball Israel Firster Smear Bund Maniac, Eric Rittberg-Dondero Is In The Building.
“My fellow Jews need to buck up,” says Eric Dondero, editor of Libertarian Republican.net, over the phone from Houston. “The big problem right now is Islam and Islamism invading our country. And if they want to continue to move in, we need to fight back. Their culture is coming here.”
Dondero, a former staffer for Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul, has blogged extensively about what he calls “creeping Sharia Law” over the past several years. He says if you want to know what Sharia looks like in the United States, all you have to do is look at Europe, where he claims Muslim Europeans have “invaded” the countryside.
“They’re invading Switzerland and a Swedish island called Malmo, where the Muslims are raping all the European and Swedish women,” he says, recalling that city’s reports of lawlessness between the Jewish, Muslim and Neo-Nazi populations. And he fears that if Sharia Law isn’t banned in all states the way it was banned in his, the U.S. is next."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 1:32PM
Eric's comments are excessive but accurate in nature. Muslim terrorists don't come from either Jewish or Christian communities, and the Paulistas are ignorantly pro-Muslim and anti-Israel/Jews. Also, the STUPIDS that are MEDIA MATTERS prostitutes should truthfully acknowledge same [but then they wouldn't be STUPIDS if they did so, right?]!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 1:32PM
Eric's comments are excessive but accurate in nature. Muslim terrorists don't come from either Jewish or Christian communities, and the Paulistas are ignorantly pro-Muslim and anti-Israel/Jews. Also, the STUPIDS that are MEDIA MATTERS prostitutes should truthfully acknowledge same [but then they wouldn't be STUPIDS if they did so, right?]!!!!!!
Indy| 3.12.12 @ 10:00AM
Speaking of Ron Paul's strategy, here's a first hand account of one local convention in MN.
http://hillbuzz.org/ron-pauls-.....ency-63749
Daily Caller also has a post on this topic in Denver
http://dailycaller.com/2012/03.....ess-video/
Does the ends justify the means? Sounds like the Lefty playbook, doesn't it.
Clint| 3.12.12 @ 11:48AM
There's A Rebellion Goin' On Out Here RINO-CINO Ruling Elites' Flunkie Stooge Crybaby.
" Given his campaign’s strategy of focusing on caucuses and out hustling his rivals at local, county, and state conventions nationwide the main beneficiary of a brokered convention would be Texas Congressman Ron Paul. The fact of the matter is that most Americans do not get involved in politics. Many rightly view it as an ugly, corrupt business. Others are too busy following American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, or the latest escapades of Lindsay Lohan. While others would rather leave it to the professionals. But, Ron Paul supporters are different. They may not outnumber the supporters of other candidates, but they are hungrier and more dedicated to their principles. They are much more willing to show up, outlast, and fight for delegate positions than the supporters of rival candidates. These attributes seem to be paying dividends for the Paul campaign at least in the early stages of the delegate selection process.
In Iowa, Ron Paul supporters have become delegates for other candidates. Under party rules, if the convention is brokered at some point those delegates could be eligible to throw their support behind Dr. Paul.
The process of selecting delegates in most states is in the early stages. There will be multiple stories like the ones mentioned above. Ultimately, there may be a brokered Republican convention in August. Then again, there may not be. Ron Paul may not get the GOP nomination for president in 2012, but whoever does will be leading a party much different from the one that exists today. It will include delegates to the national convention, activists, and party officials who support a non-interventionist foreign policy, sound money, and civil liberties. You talk about a nightmare for the party oligarchs! "
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 1:35PM
The only rebellion is that of the MEDIA MATTERS FLUNKIE STOOGIES that prostitute themselves from Justice Dept paychecks perhaps!!!!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 1:35PM
The only rebellion is that of the MEDIA MATTERS FLUNKIE STOOGIES that prostitute themselves from Justice Dept paychecks perhaps!!!!!!!!!
Clint| 3.12.12 @ 1:55PM
Fart Pants Eats His Own Israel Firster Smear Bund Bibi Boy RINO-CINO Crap Sandwiches.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Bob K.| 3.12.12 @ 10:07AM
The man who wrote Santorum's memo is a Republican political consultant from Michigan, Romney's home state. He is CEO of a big political consulting firm.
Bo Darville| 3.12.12 @ 10:12AM
If it's a contested convention where Romney isn't allowed the nomination, why settle for Santorum?
Mender| 3.12.12 @ 11:43AM
It's tempting, but Santorum has at least won some states and any other candidate will have no pre-formed support at all. For a cresting Santorum to have victory denied him and the nomination handed to someone else will crack the party into little pieces.
Rich Fisher| 3.12.12 @ 11:13AM
One could make the case that if either Santorum or Gingrich got out of the race now Romney would be toast. You only have to look at the past wins for Romney to find that in most cases he would have lost if either of the other two candidates had not been in the race splitting the conservative vote. Gingrich obviously has to still be in this to feed his ego. Santorum could beat Obama but it is doubtful that Romney can. The same people who wanted a moderate John McCain as our only hope of winning last time are wrong again. When will we ever learn. Insanity is still defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The only reason Santorum couldn't win would be if the moderate Republicans refused to hold their nose and vote for him as they perpetually expect the conservatives to do in voting for the moderate Republican they foist on us. A brokered convention is our only hope.
Mender| 3.12.12 @ 11:47AM
This is a perennial argument made within both sides (remember the Democrats and Nader '00?), but polls have suggested that enough of Gingrich's support would defect to Romney if he pulled out to give Romney a victory even if Gingrich handed all his current delegates to Santorum.
Drek| 3.12.12 @ 11:17AM
The longer this drags out, and Romney's own supporters see that he can barely eke out victories against this field, {and remember they see Gingrich and Santorum as weird freakshows} they will be the ones whose frustration becomes explosive.
Romney's own will turn against him, and are already beginning to do so for his failure to have polished off his opponents by now.
Mender| 3.12.12 @ 11:41AM
I think you're right-Romney's support is fraying. The Santorum argument should be that Romney has been discredited and even though he's won almost enough delegates he should drop out because many of those votes were from early on when his flaws were less apparent.
rightasrain| 3.12.12 @ 2:44PM
As I write this, Romney is slightly ahead in both Alabama and Mississippi, states which everyone had written off in favor of Gingrich and/or Santorum. Whether or not Romney wins tomorrow, it's going to be very close in a region where he was supposed to get crushed. How that could ever be described as being discredited or having fraying support is laughable. I don't begrudge anyone his strategy to win the nomination, but if Santorum makes the argument you suggest, he shouldn't get elected dog catcher on Newt's moon colony.
Nite| 3.12.12 @ 8:54PM
Nah, Romney has only won about 1/4 of what he needs. People are beginning to vet his record and the more they see how liberal he is, the less they like him.
Fatty Buddy| 3.12.12 @ 11:41AM
I'm an unpledged GOP delegate. Since I'm fat I favor another fat man named Chris Christie. I will vote for Christie if we have a second ballot.
Derek Leaberry| 3.12.12 @ 12:48PM
Christie just nominated a homosexual for the New Jersey Supreme Court. He's finished in my book.
Drek| 3.12.12 @ 2:33PM
Christie, in his own way, is as much of a suck-up as any we've seen of late.
Outside of taking on the teacher unions, ---------------- what can it be said that he has accomplished, ----------- can anyone name anything conservative that he's accomplished, again, outside of taking on the teacher unions?
Talk about a busted flush!
Nick| 3.12.12 @ 11:55AM
Santorum's coaltion of flatearthers and Obama Democrats marches on.
Teemu| 3.12.12 @ 1:15PM
If Santorum got the nomination in the convention, would be in all likelihood the most undemocratic nominee since Hubert Humphrey in 1968, in terms of popular vote and delegates earned. Since Humphrey didn't win, that nominee would be the most undemocratic nominee to win since they started to have actual primaries. If there is huge gap in popular vote and delegates earned between the pre-convention leader and the second, if the second one gets the nomination, the supporters of the pre-convention leader will be enraged, and don't vote in general election.
In Obama's case, even though he got slightly less of the votes cast than Clinton, he could claim that if some caucus states would have had primaries, they would have had higher turnout, and even if his percentage win had been smaller, he would have gained net more votes. In WA he won the caucus by less than 12k votes whereas he won the primary by almost 40k votes. Santorum isn't in all likelihood going to be anywhere near Romney in popular vote in the end.
Anyway, most of delegate counters already give all MN delegates to Santorum, so claiming that the caucus states convention results will be more favorable that the approximations are kinda stretch, actually if I would have to put my bet on Santorum getting almost all MN delegates, or Paul getting almost all, I would put my bet on the latter.
Ken (Old Texican)| 3.12.12 @ 4:47PM
I'm for Elmer Fudd over Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ask Bugs to be his running mate.
martin j smith| 3.13.12 @ 7:48AM
Deny Romney the nomination or force Romney and the Establishment Republican Leadershit to recognize they are in a bubble and they better wake up a see how voters really feel.