1. Ron Paul
won the popular vote in his first primary or caucus — the
Virgin Islands — but Mitt Romney still ended up walking away with
most of the delegates. Dave Weigel
explains.
2. That was pretty much the theme of the weekend. Rick Santorum
won
the Kansas Republican caucuses easily. But Romney did just well
enough to keep the state from being winner-take-all for Santorum,
nabbing seven delegates, and then pulling in delegates from Guam,
the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Romney also
prevailed in this weekend’s voting in the seemingly never-ending
Wyoming caucuses. Romney got the most delegates this weekend,
39-33, extending his lead.
3. The math
essentially favors Romney at this point, but because the counts are
inexact — a lot of unbound delegates still out there, plus
caucuses where the delegate allocation has a confusing relationship
with the popular vote totals — it isn’t clear how much so. Tim
Carney
lays out the realistic best-case scenario for Romney, Sean
Trende the
worst case. Either way, Santorum and Newt Gingrich stand a much
better chance of denying Romney a majority than overtaking him.
4. Gingrich stands a chance of winning Alabama and Mississippi
on Tuesday. If he doesn’t? Initially, it seemed he would consider
dropping out, but now he is insisting that he won’t. Obviously, how
well he does and where he places will be important. But a Southern
strategy can’t just consist of South Carolina and Georgia.
5. Rasmussen shows both Romney and Santorum winning national
pluralities against President Barack Obama.
