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The Spectacle Blog
When I woke up this morning, I blogged at CFIF about Newt Gingrich’s appearance in Mobile last night. Read it here. Gingrich had lot of good lines.
That said, I think it is time to update the “lay of the land” blog I did earlier in the week. What I am seeing is an incredibly fluid race in Alabama. Since I wrote that blog post, Romney and/or his SuperPAC have been carpet-bombing Santorum with so many negative ads it boggles the mind. The Gingrich forces also have been attacking Santorum. Santorum’s ads, less numerous, are the ones from a few weeks ago that merely feature news headlines on a black background that say things bad about or embarrassing to Romney. The other two candidates’ ads seem to be coordinated to time with their campaign’s messages of the week, but Santorum’s so far do not. As for Romney’s forces, they attack Gingrich not at all. They seem to recognize that a vote for Gingrich helps Romney, because otherwise nearly two of every three of those votes would likely go to Santorum — so they are happy to tear down Santorum while leaving Gingrich alone.
In southern Alabama at least, Santorum also suffers from having no connections to the GOP party hierarchy at all. They’re all either Romney people or Gingrich people. The Mobile County GOP chair, the impressively energetic Terry Lathan, is on the Gingrich delegate list. Former U.S. Rep. Sonny Callahan is Gingrich’s chair for the southern half of the state. Longtime state Sen. Jabbo Waggoner is the state chair. As for Romney, he’s been endorsed by former Gov. Bob Riley, and a large number (too many to list) of party poo-bahs or elected officials are also withthe Michigander. Santorum, for his part, relied on local Tea Party activists to put together his public rally.
Here’s another odd factor. Unlike in Ohio, where blue-collar Democrats (Reagan Democrats) crossed over more fo Santorum than for Romney, the Alabama system of having no party registration may actually hurt Santorum. Why? Because, at least in the southern third of the state, it might actually cost him a lot of the rural voters he has been attracting in other states. Here’s how it works: In rural areas down here, there still are vestiges of the “yellow dog Democrat” syndrome among some white conservatives, so that in local races the conservatives still run as Democrats. Meanwhile, in the “Black Belt” counties across the south-central part of the state (so named both for its black, loomy soil and for its black majorities), Santorum seems popular both with whites (who may be a minority of the population, but still have significant percentages) and with a fair number of culturally conservative blacks. But he won’t get their votes. Why not? Because in both the white-majority and black-majority rural counties just north or northeast of Mobile, there are a lot of local races on the ballot, especially judgeships. The local judge is a particularly important person in those communities. And in those communities, all the action for the judgeships is in the Democratic primaries. People can vote in either party’s primary, but they must choose one; they can’t vote in both. In this case, a whole lot of them see the local race as the more important, because victory in the primary Tuesday is tantamount to final victory (because in lots of cases nobody has even qualified as a Republican for the fall ballot). So if they vote for judges in the local Democratic primaries, they can’t vote for Santorum at the same time, because you can’t vote in both party’s events on the same day.
Remember how all the rural counties in Ohio went for Santorum? Well, he may not rack up those same sorts of numbers in Bama, for the reasons above.
On the other hand, Santorum really impressed people Thursday night at the dinner for the Alabama Policy Institute. I know several community leaders who went into the evening completely unsure of their leanings but who the next day told me they are now firmly with Santorum. Likewise, Gingrich had a good outing on Friday; I overheard a couple of people leaving the event saying they had entered only leaning to Gingrich but now they were decided in his favor.
As mentioned in an earlier post, Gingrich also has been laying the groundwork here for a while. While Santorum and Romney battled in the Rust Belt, Gingrich concentrated in the South. He was up with commercials here about five days before anybody else was.
Where all this leads is anybody’s guess. Polls are all over the map. It’s hard to tell what effect Santorum’s huge win in Kansas today will have on voters’ choices: Will it move Gingrich leaners back to Santorum? Will it halt Romney’s march to supposed inevitability, and thus stop the bandwagon followers from climbing on?
And will Romney’s failure to appear here (so far) hurt him, since Gingrich and Santorum both did multiple events in southern Alabama?
And I really don’t have a good feel for what’s going on in the rest of the state.
The sense I get is that a very large percentage of voters are still jumping back and forth in their own minds between candidates. Any of the three (but not Ron Paul) could win Alabama. It’s going to be a heck of a ride.
View all comments (28) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/03/10/gingrich-in-mobile-plus-bama-o
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Mender| 3.10.12 @ 8:50PM
Fascinating article. More like this please!
Bob K.| 3.11.12 @ 10:49AM
Unfortunately this article is getting much ink in newspapers throughout Pennsylvania today: It is entitled "A choice between the truly bad and merely awful," and it gives many comparisons between this election and one's in the past with similar problems.
http://citizensvoice.com/news/.....z1oonGixr2
ayrnieu| 3.10.12 @ 9:12PM
It's shocking that there are any Yellow Dog Democrats in any numbers, anywhere. Does the DNC need to put a cannibal's pot on their logo? Get a clue. The Republicans won't defend you, but the Democrats *hate* you.
Oldefarte| 3.10.12 @ 10:02PM
ROLL TIDE [and you go, Newt]!!!!!
http://video-embed.al.com/serv.....dyfNemipBZ
Oldefarte| 3.10.12 @ 10:10PM
PS: How in HADES can anyone with an average intelligence listen to this guy and NOT know that he would be an AWESOME POTUS??????
Anommynous| 3.10.12 @ 10:27PM
"Good Newt" and not Pelosi Couch, Scuzzafuzza, Bain Capital Attack Newt sure does talk great and would easily handle Obama in his THREE debates. I would get behind Newt and donate to him if he gets the nomination (I still can't say that for Romney), but I honestly just don't think he can do it. His negatives make him so vulnerable when the spotlight is on him, as we saw in Florida.
Newt hasn't shown me that he can win outside the South, and even there he lost Tennessee and Oklahoma to Santorum. Meanwhile, Santorum has won races elsewhere.
I said before that I'm not calling for Newt to drop out. It's up to Rick to defeat Newt in Alabama and Mississippi. If Rick can't do that, then I don't think he can beat Romney even if Newt drops out. If Rick does win these states, though, we need to rally.
Oldefarte| 3.11.12 @ 2:16PM
Just because he may not have enough supporting votes to secure the Republican nomination and therefore possibly become POTUS does not mean that he IS NOT THE MOST QUALIFIED TO BECOME PRESIDENT. Obviously we now have the LEAST QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT person residing at 1600 saldy!!!!
mjs_pa| 3.10.12 @ 10:15PM
Conservative leaders 'all in' for Santorum
A group of conservative leaders pledged to raise a combined $1.78 million for Rick Santorum's campaign and SuperPAC after meeting privately in Texas this weekend with the Republican presidential hopeful, POLITICO has learned.
More than 200 conservatives from all over the country convened at the Houston Omni for a Friday fundraising reception for Santorum's campaign. They then met to plot strategy with the former senator Saturday morning, discussing how to overcome Mitt Romney's growing advantage in the GOP primary and fend off Newt Gingrich.
"The message was, 'we're all in,'" said South Dakota businessman and conservative organizer Bob Fischer, one of the event’s co-hosts.
Fischer explained that the $1.78 million represents money that, over the course of the weekend, individuals gave and pledged to raise for the campaign and SuperPAC. "It could be significantly more," he said. He declined to share the names of the donors writing large checks to the SuperPACs.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/.....17028.html
Dai Alanye | 3.10.12 @ 11:38PM
In calls to Alabama for Santorum, I must agree that a prediction is difficult. My numbers are so small, though, that they mean nothing. In approximately fifteen contacts today, I found Santorum and Gingrich about even, a Romney or two, and one rabid Paulite. I possibly tilted two leaners.
I found southerners less cordial than expected. Perhaps they are being swamped with political calls, or perhaps Southern hospitality doesn't extend beyond the front door.
RJ| 3.11.12 @ 1:46AM
No need to worry about projections; we will know the answer Tuesday night.
Also, is it surprising that most undecided voters who attend a candidate forum walk away supporting the candidate? If they cared enough to show up, it seems like all they needed was some reassurance to become supporters. It is easy to get caught up in the spirit of a campaign rally.
martin j smith| 3.11.12 @ 8:31AM
Here are my main points:
1) Obama must be defeater inspite the Republican Establishment Leadershit.
2) Romney--if he is the nominee must be elected President not because he deserves it not because he even wants it, not because the Republican Establishment cares to win--which they do not-but because we need to get rid of Obama and the Socialists--period.
3) I am glad the other three candidates continue to be in the race because it makes Romney's life and the Establishment Republican Leadershit more difficult.
4) Ron Paul is a phoney and really is not connected as far as I am concerned to what has to be done for this nation For me he is a not starter,
Rick Santorum because of his emphasis on Social Conservative issues is playing to his "base" which is fine but to win a general election he will have to have appeal well beyond these matters. However his keep[ing Romney on his toes is a good thing.
Newt Gingrich will have to decide how serious he is on actually being a serious contender. By attack Santorum and not Romney he makes me wonder where he is going.
In conclusion we will see if this process is a joke or not but in the end and the bottom line ;
VOTE AGAINST OBAMA not matter what the Republican Party leadershit says and ignore the MSM totally.
Clint| 3.11.12 @ 10:40AM
Actually Smith,You're The RINO-CINO Israel Firster Smear Bund Plastic Phoney.
You Wouldn't Know Real Conservtism If It Jumped Up And Bit Ya Israel Firster Smear Bund Phoney, Smith.
Read George Washington's Farewell Address, Thomas Jefferson's First Inaugural Address, The Old Right And Get Back To Us.
" George Will, "Today, we have a very different kind of foreign policy. It’s called Wilsonian. And the premise of the Bush Doctrine is that America must spread democracy, because our national security depends upon it. And America can spread democracy. It knows how. It can engage in national building. This is conservative or not?"
William F. Buckley, " It’s not at all conservative. It’s anything but conservative. It’s not conservative at all, inasmuch as conservatism doesn’t invite unnecessary challenges. It insists on coming to terms with the world as it is …”
Aaaand, When It Comes To Real Fiscal & Monetary Conservatism, Dr.Ron Paul Stands Head And Shoulders Over These Democrat Lite, Economic Faux Conservatives.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.11.12 @ 2:19PM
Actually Clit, you're obviously a MEDIA MATTERS '''''FIRSTER''''' [ paid by DOJ blogger]!!!!!!!!
Clint| 3.11.12 @ 7:12PM
Actually, Fart Breath, You're One More Israel Firster Smear Bund RINO-CINO Apopologist Flunkie Stooge.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 10:40AM
Clit, WHO/WHAT is paying you to blog here?????????????????????
Mimi| 3.11.12 @ 8:33AM
A GOOD TAKE....on the Alabama race...you took everything into consideration and insight you don't usually get in the MSM.
kf451| 3.11.12 @ 11:47AM
This article pulled a bait-and-switch. The title talks about Gingrich in Mobile, but the article is mostly about Santorum. I don't like Romney, but I like Santorum less.
Quin| 3.11.12 @ 12:36PM
No it doesn't. It provides the LINK to a VERY long report on Gingrich in Mobile. Follow the link.
kf451| 3.11.12 @ 1:20PM
Disagree. He provides a link, but doesn't excerpt it. The focus of "this" article is on Santorum's chances in Alabama. If I knew that, I would've skipped the article.
Casey Abell| 3.11.12 @ 1:53PM
"The focus of this article is on Santorum's chances in Alabama. If I knew that, I would've skipped the article."
The byline on the article reads "Quin Hlllyer." If you expect anything other than glowing Santorum propaganda, you're...let's just say, mistaken.
But I love how Quin is still whitewashing Santorum's efforts to disrupt the GOP primary in MI with lefty-wing robocalls to Axelrod Democrats. Quin, your boy lost, and he deserved to lose. Deal with it.
Casey Abell| 3.11.12 @ 2:48PM
I will say this for Quin. At least he's abandoned that idiotic pledge and resumed his forthright crusading for Santorum.
Oldefarte| 3.11.12 @ 3:04PM
http://youtu.be/0r4mb9J96Pw
Clint| 3.11.12 @ 7:21PM
" the opposition to Romney has been led by conservative grassroots writers and activists, as well as groups like FreedomWorks. Gingrich isn’t much more popular among that contingent than Romney. In May, when Gingrich sharply criticized Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey reminded National Review that Gingrich had been a serial offender:
Citing Gingrich’s support of Dede Scozzafava in the 2009 congressional election in New York’s 23rd district, his backing of Medicare Part D and TARP, and his commercial with Nancy Pelosi about climate change, Armey observes that “Newt entered the race with serious ground to make up with these 2 million Tea Party activists.”…
Brendan Steinhauser, director of Federal and State Campaigns for FreedomWorks, reports that the Tea Partiers he’s talked to are “irate” at Gingrich… “I never met a single Tea Party activist that supported Newt Gingrich for president,” he adds."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 10:41AM
Go cash your MEDIA MATTERS paycheck!!!!!
Nick| 3.11.12 @ 9:55PM
Santorum won Daily Kos Democrats,not Reagan Dems.
Simon Templar| 3.12.12 @ 12:06AM
Another excellent article, Quin. Good reporting, I feel like I am there watching the scene with you.
Oldefarte| 3.12.12 @ 8:27PM
Can anyone here explain what good does the Catholic Church's indignation over the government's forcing of birth control on their institutions when THIS is allowed to occur internally within the Church????? :
'....Catholic Priest Who Denied Communion to Lesbian Placed on Leave Monday, March 12, 2012 02:16 PM By: Henry J. Reske.A suburban Washington, D.C., Catholic priest who denied Communion to a lesbian at her mother’s funeral Mass last month has been placed on leave.The announcement, made in a letter dated March 9 from Bishop Barry Knestout to priests in the Washington Archdiocese, does not specifically state why the Rev. Marcel Guarnizo was barred from the ministry, The Breaking News Blog of The Washington Post reported. The punishment was for “engaging in intimidating behavior toward parish staff and others that is incompatible with proper priestly ministry,” the Post quoted the letter as saying.
The letter was read aloud at all Masses this weekend at Maryland’s St. John Neumann by the Rev. Thomas LaHood, who said the removal was not related to the funeral incident, the Post reported.Following the funeral incident, the archdiocese issued an apology to the woman, Barbara Johnson, and sent a letter that said denying Communion is against the policy of Archbishop Donald Wuerl.....'