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The Spectacle Blog
Okay, this is all impressionistic, and it really applies more to southern AL than to Bama as a whole, but…. My sense is that Mitt Romney has more of a chance to win Alabama than most people think, and that Newt Gingrich has little chance to win it — but that Gingrich can keep Santorum from winning it, just possibly.
What people might not realize is that, even though Alabama’s GOP “establishment” types are more conservative than establishment types in other states, they still are establishmentarians. And there are plenty of them. Add that to the sense that, for whatever reason, a lot of Alabamians think of Mitt Romney as fairly solidly conservative, and further add a ton of money Romney is spending here, and you have the recipe for a competitive race.
Gingrich, or at least his SuperPAC, was up with TV and radio ads here even before Super Tuesday, and they were pretty good. Mostly they argued that Romney can’t beat Obama, but that Gingrich can. They may drag down Romney a little, but they aren’t quite strong enough ads to drag him down a lot. They feature ordinary voters saying they just don’t trust Romney to be a real conservative or to win. Again, to beat Romney, it’s the right message, and it’s pretty well done — but not REALLY powerfully done. Nothing super-memorable about the ads.
Santorum has a ton of support. At least down here, my impression is that he particularly enjoys the support of strong Tea Party activists, although in the broader subset of Tea Party sympathizers but not activists, I don’t know exactly how well he is doing. I will say this: I think that a higher percentage of Tea Partiers here tend to be more socially conservative, even Evangelical, than the libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers elsewhere, so that should help Santorum. Granted, on economics the ones here are as libertarian as elsewhere, but on “social issues” they are very much God-and-family oriented.
Santorum supposedly is dropping a fair amount of ad money here, but I don’t think it has begun yet. I haven’t seen any or heard any.
Wise political pros around here think Santorum has a pretty good chance in the general election against Obama. But again, that’s just a sense.
Ron Paul seems to be an afterthought here.
As it is, the candidates are really paying attention to the area. Santorum is doing an event in Mobile tonight and another tomorrow morning. Gingrich is doing one tomorrow evening in Mobile. And Romney will be in nearby Pascagoula, MS … is it today or tomorrow (I’ve lost track)?
Anyway, the whole thing is fluid, as has the entire race throughout the country. But we might see results sort of like Oklahoma’s, where Romney leaves Gingrich behind and tries to vie for the win with Santorum. Despite Gingrich’s efforts, he just doesn’t seem to have the air of a winner down here. Then again, he does have enough natural support around here that he still could bleed votes from Santorum that are rather significant.
Evan| 3.8.12 @ 6:28PM
Mitt should win Mississippi. They love Rino's,Trent Lott,Cochran,Wicker.
Bill| 3.8.12 @ 9:32PM
They are NOT Rino's..............
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 9:52AM
No they dislike SOCIALISTS, and obviously you're too stupid to understand the difference!!!!!!!!!!!
Drek| 3.8.12 @ 6:29PM
Didn't you tell us, but a little while ago, that your commentary upon the primary had come to an end?
Yet here you are back to cheerleading for the man without any executive experience whatsoever, Santorum!
And just earlier this day, you linked to a comment from Belvedere suggesting Gingrich should bail, holding Belvedere out as if this nobody enjoyed some privileged spot upon which he could opine on the race.
Belvedere has been acting for quite some time as if he and THE OTHER MCCAIN had formed a tag team together!
And wasn't Belvedere one of those up on the bandwagon for Cain earlier? IF so, ----------- what credibility can he possibly have afterwards, ------------- just like THE OTHER MCCAIN as well.
Gingrich needs to stay in this race as the one person in the race pushing SOLUTUIONS to our huge problems.
Dai Alanye | 3.8.12 @ 7:15PM
Anyone who thinks executive experience is a determining factor (which I don't) should vote for Romney.
In any case, Santorum's executive experience is on a par with Gingrich's, and with broader application, since he served in the Senate as well as the House.
As far as Gingrich leaving, the decision is no one's but his. It's worth pointing out, however, that had he bailed earlier, Santorum would have taken both Michigan and Ohio, and Romney would now be gasping for air.
Drek| 3.9.12 @ 12:38AM
There are a spectrum of issue positions and character traits that all of us should be examining.
Santorum fails the test.
Santorum never headed any committee in the Senate, nor the House.
He has never quaterbacked through the House or the Senate any legislation of any note!
Nor has he ever overseen an overarching legislative agenda through Congress.
The idea of going with Santorum should give every single person pause, for such a selection is fraught with grave consequence.
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 9:46AM
Amen!
BC in Mobile| 3.8.12 @ 6:29PM
I'm going to be voting for Romney, as will my family members. More than anything, we want Obrezhnev GONE.
Ron Paul is an even worse option than BO.
Clint| 3.9.12 @ 4:12AM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
spike59| 3.9.12 @ 6:28AM
still have your little hissy fit because the Tinfoil Hat Tinhorn DrRonEarmark, poster child for term limits, darling of StormFront, the Birchers, the 9/11 Truthers, the Klan, and various and sundry whackadoodles, has gotten his clock cleaned in EVERY contest outside of Galveston since Hector was a pup???? reality REALLY hurts, doesn't it, widdle woogums?????
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 9:47AM
No we are being set up by the flunkie idiots from Media Matters......wonder who that might be?????
Bob| 3.8.12 @ 6:47PM
LA (lower Alabama) used to be pro-union, fwiw.
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 9:48AM
Huh?????????
Dai Alanye | 3.8.12 @ 7:04PM
I've been hearing those Gingrich ads in Ohio. They have a good premise, perhaps, but the execution is weak, almost laughable. There's no meat, simply people saying they don't understand Romney, don't trust Romney, don't believe in Romney. Then they go on to generalize about Newt.
They don't quite sound like real people, but actors. I can't see them swinging any votes.
Oldefarte| 3.8.12 @ 8:14PM
I'll vote for Newt Gingrich next week and for whichever Republican gets the eventual nomination, which will most probably be Romney. I believe Mitt can convince enough voters in debating Obama of the necessity of defeating the worst president in the history of this country [if they use the common sense that hopefully they possess]. This country does not have four more years under this president, but will become bankrupt within two if we're lucky. Obama and these Democrats are extremely radical [try reading TAS's lead cover articles in this month's issue on David Axelrod if you doubt same], and will never agree to eliminate or to even decrease governmental expenses. They are increased our national defecit/debt far more in three years than was done by previous administrations over the last decade. They've got their feet implanted on the fiscal increase spending gas pedal and are refusing to remove same. Their solution? Tax and regulate the 'millionaires and billionaires' to death [and the sad/pathetic thing is they consider anyone with an income of$2/year as these rich folks that ought to be compelled to cough up more of their income to the government in taxes paid. They will never cease, as they told Joe the Plumber before 2008 about 'wealth redistribution' but sadly the American public was too stupid to believe them. WAKE UP AMERICA, and VOTE THE STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN TICKET for your own salvation before it's too late......IT'S THE DEMOCRATS, STUPIDS!!!!!
MassManny| 3.8.12 @ 9:16PM
Romney has yet to be vetted in the "conservative" media on his full record in Massachusetts. Luckily, there is a report posted by real conservatives in Mass.: http://massresistance.org/romney
Bill| 3.8.12 @ 9:32PM
Alabama, land of confederacy, it ain't no liberals out there........................
Oldefarte| 3.8.12 @ 10:19PM
You damned right, thank G-D!!!!!!!
sestamibi| 3.8.12 @ 11:44PM
Quin, what it really gets down to is whether the good evangelical Republicans of south Alabama find a Mormon or Catholic president less distasteful. I know it's not PC to mention this in polite company, but damned if it isn't on a whole lot of minds as the campaign unfolds, including most likely your.
Bob K.| 3.9.12 @ 12:30AM
Likely they will find a Catholic less distasteful if this link that MassManny above posted gets around:
http://massresistance.org/romney/
Wait till the democrats bring this up.
Joan| 3.9.12 @ 6:55AM
Hey Quinn....down in here Dixie we call what you just wrote, "whistling in the wind"....it's obvious you don't know Alabama at all. We're angry, really angry, and if you think that this state is going to vote for someone who doesn't want to take Obama on, you are sorely mistaken. We don't want an empty suit for president. We want someone that will take the fight to Obama and Romney is not the guy. There may be a pocket of "establishment" types down here, but they are just as crooked as the democrats and the people of Alabama don't trust them. The coast consists mainly of yankees who have retired and moved down here. Try getting out a bit next time you are down here.
Evan| 3.9.12 @ 9:11AM
Thad Cochran,Trent Lott and Wicker are not Rino's?
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 9:50AM
The 'establishment' resides in DC and in the NE. Trent Lott was politically HUNG FROM A DEMOCRATIC TREE LIMB, fool!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 10:49AM
'....Opening up a new front against Santorum, the Romney campaign accused him of being a lobbyist in his home state of Pennsylvania even before he went to Washington in 1991.Romney's campaign also attacked Santorum for holding regular meetings with lobbyists as a U.S. Senate leader, part of the Republican "K Street Project" seeking to increase the party's influence in the capital."Senator Santorum's claims to be a Washington outsider are at odds with the facts. After serving as a lobbyist in Pennsylvania before running for Congress, Santorum became a go-to guy for D.C. lobbyists while he served in the Senate," Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul said in a statement headlined: "Lobbyist/Congressman/Senator Rick Santorum: The Insider's Insider."With an appeal to evangelicals and conservatives that Romney often lacks, Santorum is challenging the idea his rival is the inevitable Republican nominee to face Obama in November's election.....'
Evan| 3.9.12 @ 11:16AM
old farte-Lott has endorsed Romney. He is the epitome of a DC Rino.
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 11:29AM
I will vote for Romney if he is nominated. Both myself, Lott and many other were born, raised, educated in and currently live in the South and are conservative. So what? If its Romney against Obama, you'll vote for Obama, right [you're one of the reasons why Obama is now POTUS instead of McCain]!!!!!!!!!
Garfield| 3.9.12 @ 1:13PM
What's the difference between Romney and Obama?
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 11:30AM
'....A new official delegate count being kept by the Republican National Committee reveals that Newt Gingrich has won more "bound" delegates in the presidential primary than Rick Santorum.
Gingrich has won 107 delegates compared to Santorum's 95, according to the RNC's count, which was made after Super Tuesday. That effectively puts him in second place behind front-runner Mitt Romney.But the RNC does not count delegates from states like Iowa in its total, according to the Huffington Post, which first reported the story. The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses did not officially allocate any of the state's 28 delegates to the national convention.....'
Oldefarte| 3.9.12 @ 11:33AM
I'd suggest you learn the extreme difference between what you falsely term a DC Rino and a Middleeastern financially supported DOMESTIC TERRORIST and do so quickly as November is fastly approaching ['...Evan| 3.9.12 @ 11:16AM old farte-Lott has endorsed Romney. He is the epitome of a DC Rino....']!!!!!!!!
Garfield| 3.9.12 @ 1:19PM
Romney is the worst possible person we can nominate.
Romney's baggage actually blunts any attempt Romney makes toward going after Obama's baggage, while Obama has plenty of avenues to attack Romney's baggage and turn this into a class warfare campaign.
Santorum stands a better chance against Obama because he has a lot of clear avenues to go after Obama's baggage. Problem is Obama has a lot of avenues to go after Santorum's baggage, and the media will be trying to keep the narrative directed in a manner to hurt Santorum.
Newt Gingrich has a lot of clear avenues to attack Obama's baggage, while Obama's baggage actually interferes with Obama attacking Gingrich's baggage.
Gingrich is our best option to run against Obama, remember all the candidates have baggage, however Obama has baggage too.
Compare the candidates' baggage to Obama's baggage, and consider how said baggage can either trap our candidates or trap Obama. Gingrich's baggage could actually be used to lure Obama into a trap where Obama's baggage ends up having to be discussed.
Tish | 3.9.12 @ 1:39PM
I can report similarly from middle Alabama. Most people I run into are voting for Romney with more enthusiasm than they did McCain. Everybody seems to fall in the anybody-but-Obama camp.
Casey Abell| 3.9.12 @ 2:01PM
Rasmussen has Romney up eight in MS and virtually tied with Gingrich and Santorum in AL. It's possible that Quin's hearthrob Rick could finish third in both states.
At least Quin has finally abandoned that silly pledge completely. Not that he ever lived up to it.