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The Spectacle Blog
This morning President Obama will speak to the American Israel Political Action Committee’s annual conference, a prelude to his meeting tomorrow with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
As this backgrounder from Haaretz on the diplomatic preparations for tomorrow’s meeting makes clear, what the Israelis want from Obama is an explicit statement about what redlines would trigger a US attack on Iran. As Omri Ceren explains at Commentary — despite Obama’s suggestion to the contrary in an interview this week — the White House has refused to give the Israelis assurances that they’ll take military action if it’s determined that it’s necessary to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Israeli policy in recent years (in addition to covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear that have pretty clearly been directed in part by Mossad) has been to suggest that they might bomb Iran at any time. That strategy has been diplomatically successful, as is demonstrated most clearly by the imposition of European sanctions, but its efficacy is running out, both because of the boy-who-cried-wolf factor (there are only so many times one can make a threat and be taken seriously) and because Israeli air power is simply not extensive enough to do much damage to the Iranian nuclear program through a strike after this year.
Even this year, Israel can only hit a few targets, and it’s not at all clear that the nuclear program would be delayed by all that much. The consequences would be serious; the Iranian government could lash out in unpredictable ways, drive up the price of oil, and so forth. This, from the New York Times, gives a flavor of the possible blowback just for Israel:
A former Israeli official said the best way to think about retaliation against Israel was through a formula he called “1991 plus 2006 plus Buenos Aires times 3 or 5.” The reference was to three instances in the last two decades when Israel came under attack: the Scud missiles sent by Saddam Hussein into Israel in 1991 during the first gulf war; the 3,000 rockets fired at Israel by Hezbollah during their 2006 war; and the attacks on the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish center in Argentina in the early 1990s. Those attacks each killed 100 to 200 people, wounded scores more and caused several billion dollars of property damage. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the north had to be evacuated from their homes to bomb shelters or further south during the 2006 war.
Still, from the Israeli perspective, even delaying the Iranian march to nuclearization is worth the consequences if push comes to shove; no Israeli Prime Minister can allow a regime that talks about wiping the Jewish State off the face of the Earth to develop the capability to do so. But can Israel be sure that the US — which has the military might to do much more serious damage than Israel could, and thus plenty of time before that becomes a necessary move — is really, truly unwilling to allow Iran to nuclear?
Many at AIPAC are hoping that, in this morning’s speech, Obama will lay out the kind of explicit statements that would give the Israelis confidence, and avert a war in the immediate term. Stay tuned for an assessment later today of whether he’s done that.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/03/04/obama-israel-and-iran
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PattyMor| 3.4.12 @ 9:50AM
Well, when Bibi gets back on the airplane to go home, he can pull the knive out of his back. Oh, Obama will talk and talk, but don't bet your country on him. Obama is Islam's man on the inside. Treachery abounds. Its predicted; just read Revelations. Its all there playing out before our very eyes.
Drek| 3.4.12 @ 12:25PM
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for Netanyahu to even bother coming to this country.
The whole thing is a waste, a fraud, and what's more, can be positively injurious to the national security interests of his country.
NOTHING GOOD can come out of this for Netanyahu!
crazy| 3.4.12 @ 10:13AM
Israel is in a pickle. No US president would ever give the clear public assurance(s) that Israel needs to defer her own plans to terminate Iran's nuclear weapons program with prejudice.
Tough talk to the contrary, Obama continues to vote present positioning himself as the more rational actor who shouldn't be blamed for the mess that will likely follow. American drawn redlines will not stop the regime from the path they've chosen. Only destroying the regime's leaders one by one will.
Obama's actions remind me of the fireman who lights the match that starts the fire that he heroically tries (and fails) to put out.
William R| 3.4.12 @ 10:36AM
If Obama treated Israel like Reagan did, he’d be impeached
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/w.....d-1.400542
Obama should tell BiBi if he tries to attack Iran the United States will shoot down his planes. Payback for the USS Liberty.
Skippy| 3.5.12 @ 2:20PM
At least you don't hold a grudge too long.
Perhaps the USS Liberty was just payback for the USS St. Louis.
They eventually got over it.
Too bad you can't.
martin j smith| 3.4.12 @ 10:54AM
At this point Obama's words are...just words. Nothing more.
Herb Tarlek| 3.4.12 @ 11:57AM
As I have said before it is too late to do anything about an Iranian nuclear program. There is too much of a chance that they already have a weapon. There is a high probability that air strikes alone will not achieve the goals of the attack, necessitating a follow up ground operation. Another land war in Asia is going to be impossible to sell here in the US. It is in many ways a repeat of the North Korea situation. There will be no red line that will lead to US intervention. The only way we will be involved is if Israel attacks & is counterattacked, this will drag us in.
Dan Phillips| 3.4.12 @ 12:14PM
"There is too much of a chance that they already have a weapon."
America's own intelligence assets don't agree with you. US intelligence doesn't even concede that Iran is trying to build a nuke.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02......html?_r=2
Dan Phillips| 3.4.12 @ 11:59AM
American interventionists are more gung-ho for an attack on Iran than are the people of Israel who supposedly face the existential threat. Perhaps the citizens of Israel aren't as easily swayed by blatant alarmism and fear-mongering.
http://www.theamericanconserva.....ck-iran-v/
Drek| 3.4.12 @ 12:24PM
Yea, that's why those very same Israelis are constantly practicing civilian drills in the event of a WMD strike.
Dan Phillips| 3.4.12 @ 12:41PM
Did you read the link? What assertions of fact in the article do you dispute?
Drek| 3.4.12 @ 12:22PM
"Thou shalt not take unto thee graven images.........."
It's always a sad thing to see American Jews fall down before some creature like obama, who obviously oozes malevolence and disdain for the plight of Israelis.
Gerry| 3.4.12 @ 12:54PM
Pardon me - I was looking for the AMERICAN spectator, and somehow got the Israeli site.
Conservative Not Republican| 3.4.12 @ 1:22PM
There is no American Spectator. It was renamed the Israeli Spectator long ago.
Conservative Not Republican| 3.4.12 @ 1:09PM
Freakin Armegeddon Factor ruling American foreign policy
Huckabee: Evangelicals more supportive of Israel than Jews
http://www.politico.com/blogs/....._Jews.html
Bob| 3.4.12 @ 2:20PM
Obama keeps saying he won't go to military options first, that they should allow sanctions to take effect. Ok, great, but what if they don't? Obama's plan for if they don't work is more sanctions, and more sanctions, sanctions that the Chinese and Russians probably won't honor. Why doesn't he come out and say, if push comes to shove, he will co-operate in a military capacity with Israel? Take the military option off the table, and Iran has no incentive to stop its nuclear program, and a country that sponsors terrorism with nuclear weapons is a big problem for the US.
aware| 3.4.12 @ 6:40PM
It's China that would need to give its permission, not us or the freakin' Israelis. If China backs Iran we will get a Suez moment. Now that we have indebted ourselves to the point of disaster all the Chinese have to do is dump Treasury debt overnight and we are done.
The truth about the catastrophic position we are in as a result of negligence, incompetence, and sheer criminal intent by both wings of the "2 party system" party will come suddenly and as a demoralizing shock to many blind sheep.
hook| 3.6.12 @ 3:11AM
Anyone who believes Obama will give Israel help is whistling in the dark and the Israelis know it. Bibi was only here to cover his bases. Obama is facilitating and Iranian bomb and single handedly going to raise the price of oil via Iranian blackmail.
An Israeli attack is certain and I wonder if Obama will take Zbig B's advice and shoot Israeli planes out of the air. Hell, it will only cost him about 5% of Jewish vote.