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The Spectacle Blog
The latest word, still unofficial, is that Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum will each be allotted 15 delegates from Michigan.
No, I’m not going to try to pretend this means Santorum tied Romney. Romney beat him. Santorum stepped on his own message and his own momentum with his robo-calls aimed explicitly at Democrats — not that there was anything dirty or underhanded about them, despite Romney’s claims, but because they risked a backlash that, statistically, wasn’t worth risking because even the best payoff would not have been very large a percentage of the vote even if the calls had worked with no backlash at all. Running an underfunded campaign is an incredibly hard job, with all sorts of decisions made on the fly, Santorum’s team has pulled off a number of coups that were stunning, so it is clear they have done a fantastic job overall — but this one was a mistake, and polls show it hurt them significantly.
That said, here’s what the delegate tie, and the overall close result in the popular vote, says about Romney: It says he is incredibly weak. It says that he can be in his home state, his wife’s home state, the state his father served as governor, PLUS outspend his chief rival five to one, PLUS have his opponent make a series of mistakes in the worst ten days of that opponent’s campaign… and STILL not even win a majority of the delegates. That’s pitiful.
As for Santorum, he showed he has real staying power. Compare his performance with that of Newt Gingrich. Gingrich was up by a huge amount in Iowa, and ended up in a very weak fourth. He was up by a huge amount in Florida, next door to his home state, and ended up getting clobbered. He couldn’t take a punch.
Santorum faced a guy in his home state. Santorum was attacked and outspent just like Gingrich was; he was attacked not just by Romney but by Ron Paul; he was attacked (like Gingrich was) for five days straight by bad Drudge headlines; he was attacked and mispresented by the national media. Yet in a TOUGHER state to take down Romney than the states Gingrich operated in, without the same financial resources Gingrich had, Santorum fought to a virtual tie rather than getting clobbered.
What does this mean? It means this race isn’t over, not by a long shot. But if Santorum is to catch Romney, he needs to run a near-flawless campaign from here on. It can be done. He can win Washington, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Ohio, compete well in Idaho and Georgia, and then win Alabama the next week, and be very much in contention. But the window of opportunity has closed a little bit.
That’s all.
View all comments (24) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/02/29/split-delegate-count-in-michig
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Oldefarte| 2.29.12 @ 12:06PM
Quin, I love your outstanding writing and political knowledge, but man you really are in the Chris Matthews' leg-tingling status-mode with this Rickster crap. Your objectivity as a non-partisaned journalist is becoming seriously in doubt. I know the Rickster is a multi-children good Catholic, but he has absolutely no chance in hades [and frankly would be a total disaster if nominated as the Democrats would slaughter Republicans from same in November]. Get a grip, please!!!!!!!!!!!
JJ| 2.29.12 @ 12:44PM
I would say the same about Romney. Where is the fiscal conservative when it comes to spending to save his own skin? He is spending like a drunken sailor and he only wins by 3 percent. Pretty sad. Romney is the perfect foil for Obama, a life time 1 percenter, stodgy old white man completely out of touch with the life of working men and women.
Oldefarte| 2.29.12 @ 4:31PM
What does fiscal conservatism have to do with Romney's campaign spending? That makes no sense! He's spending to win the nomination, which has nothing to do with governmental spending excessive of governmental revenue-receipts. You obviously have very little knowledge of accounting methods/procedures. In Michigan, Romney is partially spending to attempt to overcome the prostitution characteristics of Santorum's crawling into political bed with the aids/clap/siffolis/gonorea diseased prostitute of labor unions' influence within the state of car manufacturers. Better to be a drunken sailor than that.....at least a drunk can sober up, become well and not physically die from his affliction! Santorum is deperate and dispicable in attempting to use his Pennsylvania labor union connections-influence to steal thuggish Democrats/ votes in what should be a Republican process. Again, the more the Rickster drags out the inevitable, the more the Democrats will win in November [not to mention their licking their chops over his insanely fighting a religious based war in politics]!!!!!!!
Dai Alanye | 2.29.12 @ 3:46PM
Romney has forced from the start to buy elections and endorsements, regardless of his main opponent at any one time. Santorum's limited success in the face of vast spending and covert cooperation between Mitt and Ron is a deadly indictment of Romney's chances for success in November.
Republicans must recognize facts -- Romney is a loser who is largely backed by other losers.
Jerome| 2.29.12 @ 12:07PM
Quit making excuses. I prefer Santorum to Romney. Still,you have to accept that his wounds are self inflicted. He looked unmanly complaining about Ron Paul. Ignore him. Don't do robocalls asking Dems to vote for you. That was just dumb. made you look like you couldn't win without crossover voters. On social issue questions,like the JFK thing,simply say it was not the rught thing to say(like you did to Laura Ingraham). Talk more in general themes,like how important it is to keep familirs together. Don't fall for the lefts contraceptive bait.
Doug Schexnayder | 2.29.12 @ 12:12PM
Notice by adding Newt's and Paul's delegates (to Santorum's) that equals Mitt's?
As long as its a 4 man instead of a 2 man race…
the conservative vote is split and the mush mouth who socialized medicine in his state will buy enough votes.
Dole, McLoser and now MittSplit…
the Repub elites always find a way to fumble the ball near the goal line. Mitt's ace is he has no long-term voting record to hammer.
=====
BTW, why is the Baseline Budgeting scam (reform/replacement of) ignored?
Why has NO ONE asked any democrat on an almost daily basis >>>
Why are federal workers/congress exempted from the national socialized medicine bill?
At least say that in a sound bite...
ask Obama in a sound bite day after day...
these 2 issues are major, very major and involve trillions...
but not a word...why?
Gadfly| 2.29.12 @ 12:17PM
Question: If Santorum were caught on tape stomping kittens to death in high heels, Quinn would:
(a) Explain how this is a sign of strength that Mitt lacks
(b) Criticize the Republican establishment for not looking hard enough for similar pictures of Mitt
(c) Publicize a grading from the ASPCA that shows Santorum really loves animals despite his actions
(d) Explain how this is an expression of his good moral character in light of God's granting humans dominion over animals.
Casey Abell| 2.29.12 @ 1:49PM
Just a few more...
(e) Reveal that the kittens were paid feline punks brought into the debate audience by the Romney campaign
(f) Quote polling data that kittens are way less popular than puppies
(g) Point out that the kittens were mostly liberal products of college indoctrination at Kitty U.
(h) Say that JFK argued for kitten-stomping in his 1960 campaign, and nobody threw up over it
Al Adab| 2.29.12 @ 12:30PM
Why should Michigan, a state which will not deliver its electoral votes to the GOP candidate in any event, have so much import on the ultimate nominee? I see no reason the GOP should concern itself with who the voters in CA, NY, NJ or so on think the candidate should be.
JJ| 2.29.12 @ 12:48PM
Interesting point. CNN had a nice county by county map. Mitt won in all the densely urban counties, which are Democratic counties. He couldn't win in any of the Republican counties. So in the general election guess what, Romney loses those counties and does not have enough support in the Red counties to make up for it.
No the elections are proving Damning to Romney's ability to beat Obama.
Derek Leaberry| 2.29.12 @ 12:57PM
On the other hand, Reagan whipped Carter and Mondale in every Detroit-area county except for Wayne(Detroit).
Occam's Tool| 2.29.12 @ 4:58PM
Al: Correct. 'Bama matters.
R. Dittmar| 2.29.12 @ 1:32PM
Santorum is losing it. He's a gloomy angry dude who's out of sorts and out of his league. And don't take my word for it. Listen to someone who is completely impartial and has had nothing but good things to say about the man - Jennifer Rubin:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/....._blog.html
Lynn Otting| 2.29.12 @ 2:21PM
The Republican Party seems to vote based on meaningless poll results and ridiculous media analysis. If the goal is to beat President O’bama, then Republicans need to rethink their basis for choosing Santorum or Romney. Santorum will not beat President O’bama in the general election. Regardless of how hard he tries, he cannot separate government and religion from his speeches or beliefs. His ideas are not that bold and his record proves he cannot fight the Washington establishment to get a job done. Romney communicates conservative values by memorization. He has no ideas that he truly believes, so rather than argue a position, he ridicules his opponents. He is the perfect candidate for President O'bama's tax the elite one percent campaign. Republicans should not give this election away by voting for anyone other than Newt. He not only ended 40 years of Democratic control in the House, he ended Democratic control of southern states like Georgia too. More importantly, his record proves he achieved the goals he set. His ideas are about more than conservative values, they are about American principles. His economic plan for energy independence will create new and inventive jobs and lower the debt by trillions over the next generation. President O'bama lost the recent debate with Newt over energy. If Republicans come to their senses and nominate Newt, he will defeat President O'bama.
Dai Alanye | 2.29.12 @ 3:51PM
I wanted to read your comment but my religion demands paragraphs.
Oldefarte| 2.29.12 @ 4:33PM
Again, IT'S THE DEMOCRATS [AND THE ECONOMY] STUPIDS, and the only shot the Republicans have in November will either come from Gingrich or Romney against the socialist!!!!!!!!!!!
Tom| 2.29.12 @ 4:58PM
That is absolute nonsense. Neither Romney nor Newt has a chance in this world to beat Obama. There is not one bit of evidence to prove these types of assertions. That is the same type of garbage that people attacked Reagan with in 1980.
Rick Santorum is the ONLY candidate now in the field that can win in November. Unfortunately, idiots like you are too stupid to accept that.
Oldefarte| 3.2.12 @ 1:17PM
No you SUPREME DUMBARS, since '''''you'''''are the stupid one; and to call you an idiot would be a complement to your lack of apparent mental reasoning. The GD ''''''REPUBLICAN PARTY '''''''' nominated and elected ELECTED REAGAN, not you idiots disguised as CONSERVATIVES [who Reagan dispised unofficially; and used common sense over the radicaliness of your type ideas] who would rather destroy the Republican Party and any/all chances of victory to obtain your selfish and demented self-centered selected candidate. Just like the Paulistas will never succeed in victory [just as did not the independents Perot or Buchanan], your idiocy will if nothing else result in a OBAMA RE-ELECTION IN NOVEMBER [and just as you and yours voted for his H&C BS in 2008 STUPIDLY and all of us are now having to pay the consequences of same, so too again you'll selectively and non-compromisingly demand your way with the same stupid result]. Dumbars, the main goal is the defeat of Obama/Democrats here, not your CRUSADING CATHOLISM/JERRY FALWELL BS. Grow a brain, fool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MikeBee| 2.29.12 @ 4:41PM
One way Mitt blew it in MI, was in his negative advertising ---- toward a Republican. All of Mitt's ads were negative about Santorum. Nothing positive about himself, or negative about Obama.
On the other hand, Santorum put a hilarious ad out there, in response to Mitt's negative ads. It featured a cardboard cutout of Santorum, smile and all, being placed out around various corners, inside an abandoned plant. A Mitt lookalike was firing mud at him from a paint gun. The mud always missed, splattering on the wall behind Santorum's cardboard cutout. Over and over this happened: Santorum's smiling face, staying still for the shot, Mitt shooting rounds of mud, and the mud splattering on the wall behind Santorum. It was hilarious! Santorum showed an incredibly good sense of humor in his commercial, endearing folks to him, and turning folks away from Mitt's negative ads.
Tom| 2.29.12 @ 5:08PM
Mitt Romney is a political oppurtunist whose only guiding principle is to say or do anything he thinks might get him elected. He doesn't offer a thing to working class people with conservative social and religious values.
Oldefarte| 3.2.12 @ 1:17PM
And you're a Dumbars with a capital D!!!
Occam's Tool| 2.29.12 @ 5:00PM
I think these guys are forgetting that the enemy is Obama.
Tom| 2.29.12 @ 5:19PM
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=49868
Now the Romneyites are in a tizzy because Santorum DARED to make an appeal to Democrats in Michigan. How DARE he try to bring THOSE people to OUR party!!!
So on the one hand the elitist Romneyites charge that Santorum will drive people away from the GOP; then these hypocritical hacks attacks him for actually getting Democrats to vote in the GOP Primary!!!
By the way, has ANYBODY ever joined the Republican Party because of Mitt Romney???
I have come to detest Mitt Romeny more than any politician in my entire life; and that includes Kennedy, Carter, Clinton, Obama, or any other Democrat.
Oldefarte| 3.2.12 @ 1:21PM
Then DA, continue to insure their election [along with their socialistic leader Barry] in November by promoting the altar boy-birth control preventer with multiple chilluns-DA on economic issues-professional DC insider politician without private sector experience-defeated Penn. politician wannabe president Santorum, okay??????