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The Spectacle Blog
While polls show Mitt Romney heading to an easy victory in Arizona, polls in Michigan — where Romney was pulling into the lead late last week — are very, very close, and while it might be a statistical blip, there’s some indication that Rick Santorum’s numbers have been improving late in the race. Based on yesterday’s polling, PPP says that if Romney loses, “there’s not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.”
The stakes today are fairly high for both candidates. If Romney can’t pull it out in Michigan, where he won in 2008 and where his father was once governor, it’s hard to see him winning the kind of near-sweep on Super Tuesday next week that would restore the air of inevitability that keeps not-quite-sticking to his campaign. If Santorum wins Michigan, it will begin to seem possible that he might snag the nomination out from under Romney (not least because a Santorum win today would almost certainly precipitate a significant fundraising bounce). Conversely, if Santorum can’t win today, his sweep of the February 7th contests begins to look less like a sign of a campaign with real staying power and more like a blip (which is about what Newt Gingrich’s South Carolina victory looks like at the moment).
Polls close at 8 pm local time tonight; that’s EST for most of Michigan, CST for four counties in the western Upper Pennisula.
View all comments (20) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/02/28/the-stakes-today-in-michigan
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Floyd Looney | 2.28.12 @ 9:46AM
I think Santorum has a good chance. If Santorum does well today, and I think he does, look for the RINO herd to panic.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:32PM
Floyd,
they're already panicking.
And with Santorum, they have cause to panic.
John Thacker| 2.28.12 @ 10:27AM
PPP also suggests that if Santorum wins, he will do so with Democratic votes. They're showing Romney ahead with Republicans, but Santorum with a massive lead, 48-10, with declared Democrats who say that they'll vote in the Republican primary.
How many of those are blue collar Reagan Democrats, and how many of those a Kos kids with their "Operation Hilarity," is hard to say.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:34PM
How can any of us determine how many Democrats who support Santorum now would continue to support him in Novemeber?
Bay Stater| 2.28.12 @ 11:18AM
The Republicans need a brokered convention and the man to step in is our great 9/11 leader former NYC mayor Rudolph William Louis Giuliani. I suggest Mayor Rudy pick Michele Bachmann as his VP to philosophically balance the ticket.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:43PM
Count me on board with Giuliani.
Or count me on board with Sarah Palin.
If we're going to go with a guy who so easily can be portrayed as a theocrat, as a religious zealot, as a guy focused on abortion, -------------------------- if we're going to saddle up with that kind of baggage, ---------------------------------- then we might as well saddle up all the way, and go with a PROVEN REFORMER, a PROVEN EXECUTIVE, a woman who has repeatedly, REPEATEDLY demonstrated her ability to mock the president, to ridicule his programs and policies, and to accurately summarize the gist of his agenda, {"death panels"}.
If we're going to bet like this, {and going with Santourm is taking a flyer...}, ------- then we might as well go all the way and go with either Gingrich or Palin.
Simon Templar| 2.28.12 @ 11:53AM
I think you are overstating a bit. If Romney wins by a small margin, Santorum will have won also and serious doubts will be turned on Romney. The momentum will be obviously moving away from him. Got news for ya, we are not rolling over this time...
If Romney is really now a conservative then he needs to earn the confidence of the base. Maybe he could start by saying two words which his mouth can not seem to form..."tea party."
Patrick| 2.28.12 @ 12:26PM
Michael Moore endorsed Santorum btw.
Next John Conyers and John Dingell.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:48PM
Question is, will Santorum draw the line when the friends of Barney in Michigan show up to support him........?
John Thacker| 2.28.12 @ 12:30PM
"If Romney is really now a conservative then he needs to earn the confidence of the base. "
Yes, but if Santorum is a really a conservative than he needs to earn the confidence of the base. I don't expect conservatives to be radical libertarians, but neither do I expect them to say " "I am not a libertarian, and I fight very strongly against libertarian influence within the Republican Party."
Fighting very strongly against libertarian influence within the Republican Party is how we got the George W. Bush years.
Nick| 2.28.12 @ 12:33PM
Why does the GOP allow for open primaries and caucuses?
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:45PM
Good question!
It's almost as inexplicable as the party repeatedly, decade after decade, allow democrats and hacks to moderate all debates.
All debates in the general, all debates in their own primaries!
Just unbelievable.
hook| 2.28.12 @ 12:43PM
Santorum, Romney and Gingrich and Paul should talk about OBAMA--not each other. Obama is vulnerable on Iran, Afghanistan, the economy which are slightly more important than contraception and dirty tricks of their opponents. If I were Romney I wouldn't mention
Santorum's name.
PattyMor| 2.28.12 @ 12:53PM
Apparently the Catholic Bishops have stirred up the congregations to go out and vote for Santorum. With Obama targeting the Catholics, perhaps the intensity will pull Santorum over the finish line. Nothing like survival of your religion to get people fired up.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:46PM
I haven't heard anything like that.
The Bishops do seem focused on obamacare.
But it's all too little, too late.
Patrick| 2.28.12 @ 1:08PM
Surprised Paul hasn't done better in Michigan. An open primary. Lot's of colleges. Lot's of muslims.
Drek| 2.28.12 @ 1:47PM
Yea, suppose he'll take Dearborn.
Bo Darville| 2.28.12 @ 4:12PM
All this talk about a state where the GOP will get blasted by 10 percentage points in November.
Tiffany| 2.28.12 @ 9:21PM
Tea Party Pac for Romney are saying they are going to Sue Obama for the Obama Administration to have (his People DEMS) do a robocall to Democrats to Vote for Santorum b/c the Obama camp told the DEMS Act like a Republican for the Day to Knock Romney out of the Race Mitt Romney and his Tea Part Pac and Other Backers of Romney said this is not “only” Foul Play, it’s down right illegal. There will be a Law Suit if the Numbers make Santorum win in both States especially Michigan. That everyone knows will be Foul Play and illegal. A Law Suit is on it’s way if Romney loses even one state let alone two