In his
article about Jewish Republican David Storobin’s efforts to be
elected to the New York State Senate next month, Ross Kaminsky
notes that the only GOP presidential candidate to earn 40% of the
Jewish vote since Warren Harding in 1920 was when Dwight Eisenhower
was re-elected in 1956. However, Ronald Reagan did come quite close
to that figure in 1980 when
he earned 39% of the Jewish vote in his landslide victory over
Jimmy Carter. It was the first time a Democratic presidential
candidate had received less than 50% of the Jewish vote since James
Cox could only muster 19% of the Jewish vote in 1920. Socialist
Eugene Debs received twice as many Jewish votes.
Although Reagan lost some of the Jewish vote in 1984 he still
managed to garner 31% of it. In 1988, George H.W. Bush recevied 35%
of the Jewish vote although four years later it would collapse to
11%, representing the lowest total received by any GOP candidate
since Barry Goldwater attained 10% of the Jewish vote despite the
fact his father was Jewish. Of course, some of that owed to the
presence of Ross Perot on the ballot but a lot of that decline was
due to the elder Bush’s overt hostility towards Israel. Arguably
the greatest foreign policy differential between Bush 41 and Bush
43 was over Israel. Indeed, George W. Bush actually picked up
Jewish support in 2004 going from 19% to 24%. In 2008, John McCain
won 22% of the Jewish vote against 78% for Barack Obama.
Over the past five presidential elections, Democratic candidates
have been able to rely on between 75% to 80% of the voting age
Jewish population to support them. That’s not as high as FDR who
received between 80% to 90% of the Jewish vote even though he
didn’t lift a finger to rescue Jews persecuted in Europe during the
WWII
despite the best efforts of his Treasury Secretary Henry
Morgenthau. Still, Jews remain a reliable constituency for
Democrats and I suspect this will be the case in 2012 although I
don’t think Obama gets 78% of the Jewish vote this time around.
There is no doubt that President Obama’s anti-Israel posture
hasn’t done him any favors but it probably won’t hurt him all that
much either. I suspect this in part because Obama hasn’t said much
about Israel recently and has let others in the Administration do
the talking for him most notably Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.
Unless Obama steps into the breach again close to election time
(which is a possibility where it concerns Israel and Iran) much of
what Obama has said about Israel will have
been forgotten. There are, of course, many Jews who simply
don’t care about Israel and aren’t particularly concerned about
Iran’s intentions toward the Jewish State as demonstrated in this
2010
interview Bill O’Reilly conducted with Jon Stewart. Indeed,
some Jews engage in moral equivalence between Israel and terrorist
organizations like Hamas as has Stewart
himself.
This isn’t to say that Jews are particularly pleased with Obama
where it concerns Israel. Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz
comes to mind as he recently
likened Media Matters to the Reverend Jeremiah Wright?
Dershowitz has gone as far as to say, “The Obama Administration
cannot have Media Matters and me or people who look to me for
advice. We cannot be in the same tent. The tent is not big enough
to include us.” Well, to start with, Reverend Wright didn’t stop
Obama from being elected and if Obama’s association with Reverend
Wright didn’t stick why would his association with Media Matters?
Furthermore, it’s hard to imagine the likes of Dershowitz voting
for Romney, Santorum or Gingrich, never mind Ron Paul. To the
extent that there are liberal Jews who are offended by Obama’s
anti-Israel policies, I think it’s far more likely that they would
stay home rather than vote Republican. Of course, if enough
Democrats were to stay home on election day it could cost Obama the
election but it still isn’t the same thing as voting
Republican.
So why don’t Jews vote Republican in large numbers? The most
fundamental reason is that many Jews believe (fairly or not) that
Republicans are hostile towards racial minorities, women,
immigrants (be they legal or illegal) and the LGBTG
community. Many Jews intrinsically identify with groups who are
seen as being on the short end of the stick and see themselves (and
in some cases members of their family) in their position and thus
feel compelled to speak out and act on their behalf. As Rabbi
Hillel asked, “If I am only for myself, than what am I?” In the
grand scheme of things, it is only natural to wonder, “Well, if
Republicans don’t like gays and lesbians then what do they think of
me?” Now I happen to think some of that thinking is unfair
especially where it concerns racial minorities although I do think
there’s credence to it when it comes to the LGBTG community.
Nevertheless, while many Jews keep Rabbi Hillel’s second
question in mind, in so doing they forget his first and most
important question, “If I am not for myself, then who is for me?”
For Jewish voters sympathetic both to Israel and gay
rights, it is worth remembering that both President Obama
and Rick Santorum think marriage should be between a man and a
woman. With this in mind, would you rather hedge your bets with
Rick Santorum who has stood up for Israel while having spent years
warning us about Iran long before making its nuclear ambitions
known? Or would you rather stick with President Obama who is
angrier at Israel for building housing in Jerusalem than he is at
Iran for building a nuclear weapon?
