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The Spectacle Blog
At present, Quin Hillyer is in a state of euphoria and could probably leap across the Colorado River if he were so inclined and I wouldn’t blame him for doing so.
After all, Quin was championing Rick Santorum as presidential material when nary anyone else thought he would be a viable candidate. A lot of people underestimated Santorum (myself included) but Quin deserves a great deal of credit in seeing in Santorum what others could not see. Because not only has Santorum exceeded all expectations but he has done so on a shoestring budget. What Santorum has lacked in financial resources, he has made up for in persistence, sincerity and an abundance of sweater vests.
With that said, I’m not ready to call him President Santorum just yet. The last thing he, Quin or any of his supporters should be thinking about is measuring the drapes in the Oval Office. Rick Santorum still has a Republican nomination to win and if there has been a theme to the 2012 GOP Race is that nothing is inevitable. Now that Santorum has demonstrated he isn’t a one trick pony he’s going to very likely face Romney’s attack machine full throttle. Now he might well have a stronger jaw than Newt Gingrich. But sometimes Santorum can be his own worst enemy. If Romney’s attacks render Santorum into a sullen, scolding, sanctimonious sourpuss then it severely undermines his chances of becoming the Republican standard bearer.
Please keep in mind that I say this as someone who finds Santorum infinitely preferable to Romney. Like Ross Kaminsky, I tend to disagree with his social views. Yet I needn’t necessarily agree with someone on all matters to support their candidacy. I might not like everything Rick Santorum says but I know that he means what he says. The same simply cannot be said for Mitt Romney. But despite all the problems Romney is having with a critical mass of conservatives it would be foolish to write him off just now. Let’s see where we are at after Super Tuesday.
But let’s say Santorum does become the Republican nominee. As others have been guilty of underestimating Santorum, I think Quin is guilty of underestimating Obama. If the economy continues to improve, so does Obama’s chances of re-election regardless of who the GOP nominee is. While it is certainly true that President Obama has had more than his fair share of petulant and prickly behavior during his term in office, he can easily turn on the charm. This could prove too much for Santorum to overcome especially if his sullen, scolding, sanctimonious side surfaces. If Americans see Santorum as a sourpuss, he won’t be elected President.
I’m not saying Santorum couldn’t beat Obama. At this point, nearly anything is possible. But I would be curious to see how Quin thinks Santorum can win about 300 electoral votes.
View all comments (54) | Leave a comment
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Dai Alanye | 2.8.12 @ 1:26PM
The point is -- or should be -- who will perform best against Obama. Certainly not Romney, who is a weak campaigner, buoyed only by large sums of money. Certainly not the pseudo-conservative author of Obamneycare. Certainly not the man who has recently said, "Of course the economy is improving."
PCC| 2.8.12 @ 8:59PM
Rick Santorum is a Sharron Angle or Christine O'Donnell on a national scale.
However, after Obama's landslide victory over Santorum, the uncompromising Tea Partiers and Paulites who would have brought it about can console themselves by polishing their consciences and howling into the wind on the internet for another four years.
Clint| 2.8.12 @ 11:11PM
You Can Thank The Israel Firster RINO-CINO Phoney Conservatives, Sport.
USSAlabama| 2.8.12 @ 1:47PM
So far, Romney has won every state Hillary Clinton won in 2008 -- and lost every state she lost.
Just sayin'
TB| 2.8.12 @ 1:57PM
I did notice that when confronted on the limits of the economic argument against Obama by Laura Ingraham, Romney had nothing. He said, I believe, "do you have a better argument, Laura?"
Santorum does have a better argument. He takes it to Obama on Obamacare, on its relationship to liberty generally, on religious freedom, AND on the economy.
These are not small things. Giving up the anti-Obamacare argument this Fall is a big deal, but the forfeit of that issue is the price of nominating Romney. Can Santorum win? I don't know. But right now he's making a better argument against Obama than the argument that Romney is making. And the importance of making effective arguments in a political campaign can't be overstated.
Bo Darville| 2.8.12 @ 4:04PM
If Santorum is the nominee, none of those issues will be mentioned at all during the campaign. The whole focus is going to be on homosexuals.
Floyd Looney| 2.8.12 @ 5:03PM
Even voters in leftist Kalipornia the gay marriage issue was defeated. I think Santorum has a good chance.
mjr| 2.9.12 @ 5:20AM
Right! because of "tolerance".
Tolerate the good actions; not unnatural actions.
Separate the good in people from their harmful actions.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 1:57PM
For any deluded that Santorum can prevail in the race for the nomination, let alone the general, ------------ I urge them to go and watch once more that bizarre, unprepared, chaotic, clueless speech he gave just last night.
Now recall, via polling, this guy knew he was likely to win a state, maybe more, and knew that for probably 72 hours.
But instead of seizing his opportunity to speak to the nation last night, instead of having a stemwinder all locked and loaded for delivery last night, ------------ instead of a speech that propelled him closer to securing the nomination, instead of soemthing utterly rational like that, we got that piece of crap "speech" he delivered.
I couldn't believe that's what he offered last night, especially when he had time to prepare.
And this is the guy we're supposed to go with!
Any notion that I had that he might be ready for prime time was detonated by last night, EVEN THOUGH he "won" those states. Won in quotation marks because the votes weren't definitive, and didn't lock in delegates.
His speech after Iowa was sophomoric, after spending the first fifteen minutes thanking family members and people we don't know, and aren't likely to find out anytime soon.
But that speech was coherent compared to the scatter-shot offering of last night.
Quin| 2.8.12 @ 3:36PM
Most people I've heard say they thought the speech was terrific. And Rush Limbaugh praised the speech to high heaven today, playing clip after clip after clip of it on the air and saying THIS is what conservatives should have been saying all along.
Dai Alanye | 2.8.12 @ 4:01PM
Drek said "Santorum," an obvious Freudian slip for Romney.
But Mitt just loves him some America, yes he do. "Ah loves America, and my poppy he sells lumnum paint outa his car."
Romney looks more clueless speech by speech. Santorum's statement that he considers himself the alternative to Obama was masterful. Rick connects with freedom-loving Americans while Romney reads advisor-written phrases.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:28PM
No.
I didn't listen to Romney last night.
But I couldn't stand Santorum.
He actually lost his place repeatedly last night! For a half a second there, I thought he was going to pull a Perry, who couldn't recall one of the Departments he was prepared to give the ax too!
For those who say that Limbaugh said it was great, --------------- well, he would hardly say otherwise, now would he? Think about it. He's trying to save the party from Romney, without coming right out and declaring and then waging war against Romney. So with that, of course he's going to praise that piece of crap offering to the high heavens!
Go watch the speech for yourselves! Don't buy my version, go watch and make up your own minds. Just be mindful that what you're watching was:
A} an matchless opportunity to speak directly to voters and viewers;
B} a rare opportunity to put your ideas, your style, your personality DIRECTLY across to voters and viewers WITHOUT the media interrupting you; and
C} a speech you KNEW BEFOREHAND you were going to deliver prime time on television!
So without more ado, ----- go check out that garbage from last night, and go watch the Iowa speech, where he bored everybody to tears for the first well-near 15 minutes thanking and naming people who weren't important to the overall campaign!
mjr| 2.9.12 @ 5:22AM
...so send a donation so he can hire good speech writers.
toadold| 2.8.12 @ 2:16PM
Maybe I've been spending too much time at ZeroHedge.com but everything the BLS has put out lately has proven to be wrong a month or two later. If the economy has improved then why is revenue from employment taxes still dropping? Why do I still see empty stores? Why do my gas and groceries cost so much? and Yada Yada.
Bill| 2.8.12 @ 2:23PM
42 states yet to go! The GOP contest is far from over. I'm predicting a brokered convention, in which Santorum will prevail over Romney.
GOP Ticket:
President: Rick Santorum
VP: Mitch Daniel
AG: Rudy Giuliani
Secretary of State: John Bolton
Treasury: Michelle Bachmann
Defense: Aleen West
Bo Darville| 2.8.12 @ 4:05PM
Just cause Bachmann carries around a purse doesn't mean she's qualified to be Secretary of the Treasury.
Bill| 2.8.12 @ 5:29PM
She was a former federal tax attorney and I trust her.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:30PM
I concur with your selections for AG and State. Other than that, I'd say it was back to the drawing board.
Floyd Looney| 2.8.12 @ 6:39PM
Can we leave off Mitch Daniels who is hostile to social conservatives and leftwing Rudy?
mjr| 2.9.12 @ 5:24AM
definitely will not be Mitch Daniel.
Newt ala Cheney... :-)
Triple Play| 2.8.12 @ 3:18PM
Santorum's moral relativism will take the Republican Party over the edge into political oblivion.
Dai Alanye | 2.8.12 @ 4:04PM
I thought we moderates were criticizing Santorum for being a moral absolutist not relativist. Man! It is so very hard to keep up with the party line.
Quin| 2.8.12 @ 3:40PM
Thanks, Aaron. As for how he beats Obama: By winning the heartland states. Reagan Democrats. Swing-vote Catholics. Blue-collar workers. And then holding on to the South and the Plains.
Believe me, though: I do NOT underestimate Obama. That's why I have warned so repeatedly against Gingrich and Romney: specifically because I think Obama would beat either of them. I think he and his $800 million+ will be formidable. It's just that I can see a path to victory for Santorum (and Rasmussen polling bears this out), just as I could have (to an even greater extent) for Ryan or Jindal or a few others. I'm not saying it will be easy for Santorum. Not at all. But I think he WILL do it.
Thanks again.
Aaron Goldstein| 2.8.12 @ 4:31PM
I think Santorum would win all the states McCain won in 2008 (which based on the 2010 Census) gives him a baseline of 178 electoral college votes. The question is how does he get the other 92 to earn the keys to the White House.
These are the 12 states (all of which were won by Obama in 2008) I see being up for grabs in the order of electoral college votes:
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Michigan - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Wisconsin - 10
Colorado - 9
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
New Mexico - 5
I think Santorum would win back Virginia and North Carolina.
I don't see Santorum winning Florida (unless Rubio is his VP choice), Iowa, Nevada, Colorado or New Mexico (unless he names Susanna Martinez is his VP choice and even there's still Gary Johnson.)
This leaves Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and, of course, Pennsylvania. If Santorum wins all of these states on top of the states that went GOP in 2008 then he wins the White House. If you leave Indiana out of the equation he's at exactly 270 electoral college votes. None of these Reagan Democrat states are locks for Santorum including his home state which is why picking Rubio would be strategically important. If he loses Michigan and Wisconsin but wins Florida then Obama still moves out. If he loses in Pennsylvania but wins Florida then Obama has to pack his bags.
But we are still a long, long way from a nominee, never mind November.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:33PM
Aaron,
We're traveling across ground the GOP hasn't seen since Ford/Reagan in 1976. I don't think any of us can really predict how all of this is going to unfold. Florida was supposed to prove definitive and decisive.
Except it hasn't.
Iowa didn't prove much either.
Who now recalls how hyped to the skies New Hampshire was.
All I know is that the creatures over at NR have to be in an abject panic that the guy who has contributed to their "foundation" is blowing it. And blowing it big time!
Floyd Looney| 2.8.12 @ 6:41PM
Gary Johnson, lol.
Newt and Romney cannot beat Obama because social conservatives will stay home again. Is that clear?
MikeG| 2.8.12 @ 9:42PM
The same analysis holds for Romney and he has a better chance to win Florida, Michigan and Nevada.
smokedaddy| 2.8.12 @ 11:37PM
Regarding the competitive states, Santorum clearly has the edge on Romney. Mitt's strength relative to Santorum are in the liberal Northeast, the Pacific Coast, the Mountain Mormon belt and maybe Michigan & Florida. Most of these are either out of reach or already safely in the bag regardless of the candidate. Santorum's appeal is the rust belt and farm states. So, Mitt gives us a usable advantage in the following leaning or competitive states from RCP:
New Hampshire 4
Nevada 6
New Mexico ? 5
Arizona 11
Colorado ? 9
Florida? 29
Oregon 7
Maine 4
Total 75 (31)
For Rick, he either solidifies or gives us a chance at:
Pennsylvania 20
Ohio 18
Wisconsin 10
Missouri 10
Minnesota 10
Iowa 6
Indiana 11
North Carolina 15
Total 100
Frankly, I'm not too sure Romney would be stronger in Florida than Santorum in spite of his win there and in any case that state is polling very solid in any case. Same with Colorado & New Mexico which would reduce Mitt's electoral pickups to 31 vs Santorum. Michigan & Virginia I'd call a wash between Rick & Mitt so far as a comparative advantage. Mitt has family roots & suburban appeal vs Rick's Catholic blue collar & coal country background.
Simon Templar| 2.8.12 @ 3:51PM
Aaron, once again, you are the only adult in the room. Where did you get all this common sense and insight? I like the cut of your jib.
I am sure you wish Santorum well but you are smart enough to see what lies ahead. That is rare and I am not sure you know that....
Great analysis.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:35PM
Yes.
Aaron has come into his own.
It's enough for me to overlook his puffing of the Phillies mid-Summer, 2011! I KNEW their want of offensive production was going to destroy, just destroy their playoff hopes. And I knew even then, just KNEW that they would lose their very first playoff showdown.
And so it went..........
Aaron Goldstein| 2.8.12 @ 5:52PM
Hey, what can I say? I liked the Hunter Pence deal and still do.
Comingaround| 2.8.12 @ 4:23PM
I didn't like Santorum in the beginning, he was stiff with an infrequent fakey smile and that scolding look you mentioned. But he has relaxed into the job of candidate much better of late, his smiles are genuine and easy, he seems less ill at ease, the transformation has been amazing and welcome. Wouldn't it be great to have a conservative in the White House again!
Ward Bond| 2.8.12 @ 5:13PM
Gingrich and Romney, of course, have had the media focus pretty much until now. Beating each other up has made them both look bad. Obama has been waiting for Romney and Newt has so many negatives that I just can't see either of them defeating Obama. It seems like to me the more people see Santorum the better they like him. Another thing-doesn't it seem like obama is abandoning the moderates? He keeps swinging way left, just look at the fuss now with the Catholics. Quite a contrast -Santorum vs The Anti-Religion.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:38PM
Not from the first. Gingrich started climbing in the polls about four weeks out from Iowa. Which then triggered the creature Romney, with his apparat, to target him for extinction.
But Gingrich was seen as something of a joke compared to our incomparable Mitt!
The prospect of Romney going tactical and strategic nuclear on his opponents has kept a good number of people who should have jumped in out. That's a damn shame, it's a damn, damn shame that the Romney creature has played so baleful a role in the GOP election hopes the last two go 'rounds.
Floyd Looney| 2.8.12 @ 5:02PM
Romney cannot win, he is simply far far too leftist for the base of the party. Even if he gets the nomination he has no chance to energize the conservative base and many will stay home. Can you say Dole or McCain?
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:42PM
It's not just that he's too far left.
It's that he'd be apt to trigger media firestorms on every serious issue, because the media would know for a fact that he could be pressured into shifting position after position, and all towards them.
We would NEVER have any confidence in what direction Romney would be tending, ESPECIALLY on foreign policy, where the President has something more of a free hand.
The practical break downs of a Romney administration haven't been thought through by our supposed betters over at NR. It would be like GHWB's sole term, but much worse.
Much, much worse.
Floyd Looney| 2.8.12 @ 6:42PM
I don't think Romney would have to shift anything except the rhetoric.
Pete| 2.9.12 @ 12:18PM
He can't help it if he is hopelessly out of touch with the 99 %.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.8.12 @ 5:11PM
Well,
I'm going to vote a straight "R" ticket. At least I will cancel a povert's straight D ticket on behalf of his or her dead dog.
ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!
NotALibertarian| 2.8.12 @ 5:16PM
" I tend to disagree with his social views. Yet I needn't necessarily agree with someone on all matters to support their candidacy. I might not like everything Rick Santorum says but I know that he means what he says. "
Thanks, Aaron, for being intellectually honest enough to see that the much-celebrated truce on social issues works both ways. Many others aren't as principled.
Martin| 2.8.12 @ 5:40PM
Santorum's a long way from my first choice, though my main problem with him is the hard-line neocon foreign policy (which is why National Review likes him.) -- I'm happy with a truce both ways on social issues.
I however think he's a good candidate for this year and this opponent, running on a blue-collar economic platform and hopefully playing down the rest of his views. As well as the states Aaron lists above, I think he opends up possibilities in Minnesota and even Illinois because of his blue-collar vcharacteristics -- also New Jersey where Christie could be a big help.
Conversely he has trouble in Virginia, which is trending Democrat and trending coastal-liberal. But overall, of the four remaining runners, I think he has the best shot (since Paul would trigger a neocon third party candidate.)
Ideally he'd pick Rand Paul as VP, which would prevent a third-party run and get a big chunk of the youth vote.
Drek| 2.8.12 @ 5:44PM
I'd support Paul before I'd support Romney.
At least then we would have somebody who knows a thing or two about changing Washington. Romney would simply make the establishment comfortable.
And they're not in any need of comfort, or comforting.
mjs_pa| 2.8.12 @ 7:43PM
Aaron,
I think you should join Quin at Santorum's Inauguration next January.
Minuteman78| 2.8.12 @ 8:12PM
You proceed from a false assumption. The economy is not improving, nor will it continue to improve. Unemployment is not 8.5%, it's more like 11%, and EVERYONE knows it (except for the lackeys at the DMV). Gas is going to go past $4 a gallon by May or June, and any Candidate who offers to put an oil rig in every backyard and drill drill drill to finally give the finger to all the Arabs and Chavez is going to win in November slam-flipping-dunk.
Oldefarte| 2.8.12 @ 10:18PM
Sorry, but Santorum is a ONE TRICK PONY of Catholicism, moralism, religion, and anti-abortionism. If nominated, he will be defeated by Obama easily. Obama/Democrats are following their Rules for Radicals playbook by apparently herding Republicans into a religious oriented campaign agenda that has only one ending: a dead-end street or a boxed-in canyon. The Democrats are bobbing and weaving Rope-A-Dope style to the charging Frasier-Republicans. When religion becomes the main political issue, the in-the-toilet economy is hidden from view/discussion, and that is precisely what the Democrats want. Yeah, let keep all those mean of administration officials from forcing us to buy our own condoms, while the economy is going south toward Mexico and Cuba. When the Democrats wip out and mobilize NOW, ACORN, the Sierra Club, Greenpiece, the Domestic Terrorist Brotherhood of Chicago, etc against Santorum-the-Gerry Fallwells and paint them as concerned about NOTHING BUT THEIR RELIGION AND GUNS, it will be game, set and match in November [and the Happy Days of increased defecits, sticking it to the millionaires & billionaires (ie anyone with a job and income), $10/gallon for gasoline furnished by their ME raghead friends/associates that are now furnishing campaign contributions by the bucketload to Barry's coffers, substituting jail terms for lawsuits filed against state officials over their initiating their own immigration laws rightfully passed, promoting the Rap Brown wannabees to arm themsleves and GUARD each/every polling station in America to make sure votes are counted numerous times without the necessities of photo ID's, etc. Oh, for sure, it'll be %%%%%HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN%%%% for the Jackars Party indeed [if you thought 11/3/08 was something, just wait until they are victorious on 11/3/12 after beating Santorum worse than Johnson beat Goldwater!!!!!!!!!!!
Pete| 2.9.12 @ 12:31PM
Romney would have a harder time. He is a loser. He lost to Mc Cain, who got beat by Obama. He is showing that despite the money and the GOP establishment backing he can lose 3 primaries in one day. Romney is an easy target for Obama as he represents the life long membership in the 1 percent. Romney can not get the support of the GOP base as they see him as Obama lite. In fact he even wants to raise the minimum wage now.
Worse he produced socialized medicine in Massachusettes, supported strict gun control and bought into Global Warming and Cap and Trade.
Oldefarte| 2.9.12 @ 1:05PM
I don't think so, and in fact I KNOW that Romney would fare better in the general election [and additionally would represent someone professionally capable of administering the economy back to health and substantially reducing government's cripling budgetary defecit/debt. In November it will be IT'S THE DEMOCRATS STUPIDS, and in January it will be IT THE ECONOMY STUPIDS [anything other is secondary]!!!!
Stu| 2.8.12 @ 10:31PM
The Santorum,Gingrich and Paul campaigns need to be strategic and come together. Newt and Santorum are not on the ballot in Virginia. Their supporters should vote for Paul. Newt isn't on the ballot in DC either,go for either Santorum or Paul.
Santorum isn't on the ballot in Indiana. Vote for Newt.
They must be honest with themselves. None of them are likely to be the nominee,but they can stop Romney IF they work together.
bop berrigan| 2.9.12 @ 5:35AM
I can't get over how some individuals just purrrr over Romney, but in discussing Santorum the trite invective just drips from their mouth.
Casey Abell| 2.9.12 @ 10:06AM
"Please keep in mind that I say this as someone who finds Santorum infinitely preferable to Romney. Like Ross Kaminsky, I tend to disagree with his social views."
Uh, what? The only real differences between Romney and Santorum are on social issues. They pretty much agree on everything else...you know, little things like economics and foreign policy.
So if Aaron disagrees with Sanctimony Santorum on the wacky social-issues stuff, why does he support Rick? I guess Aaron just hates Romney with a passion.
Pete| 2.9.12 @ 12:19PM
What social issues? Gay marriage? Abortion?
Casey Abell| 2.9.12 @ 2:39PM
I was actually thinking of wackier stuff, like Santorum's disdain for birth control. If Goldstein disagrees with Santorum on this stuff, why does he support Rick? Once you get away from social issues, Santorum is pretty much the same as Romney...or Generic Republican. He certainly doesn't have massive disagreements with mainstream Republicanism like Paul does.
The only explanation is that Goldstein really, really hates Romney. Well, fine. But he might as well say it plainly.
For a while Goldstein actually supported Herman Cain, a sleazebag completely unqualified for the presidency. But Cain had the one saving grace which trumps everything for Aaron: his name was not Mitt Romney.
John| 2.9.12 @ 1:33PM
President Santorum? Please say you're kidding. The guy is not only opposed to allowing a woman to have a abortion if she is raped, he opposes birth control. And the "man on dog" comment about gays? And he lost by 17 points in his last political race where he was the incumbent senator. The dems would have a field day with this guy. Romney is flawed, but he's still the best bet.
Laurence| 2.10.12 @ 11:18AM
Goldstein writes, "Now that Santorum has demonstrated he isn't a one trick pony he's going to very likely face Romney's attack machine full throttle. Now he might well have a stronger jaw than Newt Gingrich." Is it possible to mix metaphors more badly than this? It's excusable to talk like this, but anyone who writes like this is being muddle-headed. As George Orwell remarked in his excellent essay "Politics and the English Language," ""Incompatible metaphors are frequently mixed, a sure sign that the writer is not interested in what he is saying.""