The Spectacle Blog
Monday night, I sat looking at the GOP primary schedule and, considering Mitt Romney’s enormous fundraising advantage, was filled with a sense of foreboding. After Newt Gingrich’s meltdown in Nevada, the prospects for the conservative “Anybody But Romney” opposition looked grim indeed.
Rick Santorum’s 3-for-3 hat-trick Tuesday night, however, revives the glimmer of a possibility that Romney can still be beat. But it will nevertheless be a difficult challenge and, in the short term, will require at least tacit cooperation between the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns.
After we get the results of the Maine caucuses on Saturday — a near-certain win for Romney — Arizona and Michigan hold their primaries on Feb. 28. With Romney’s vastly superior financial resources, he would likely win both states unless Santorum and Gingrich strike an unofficial deal: Let Gingrich concentrate his campaign on Arizona (a Sun Belt state that matches Gingrich’s political strengths) while Santorum focuses on the industrial “Rust Belt” state of Michigan. Both of the conservative “not Mitts” would face long odds against Romney in those states, but the odds will be slightly shorter than they would be if both of them were shuttling back and forth between the two states. They could economize in terms of campaign staff, travel expenses and advertising and, if they get a lucky break somewhere along the way, might conceivably score twin upsets, so that Romney loses both Arizona and Michigan.
The Washington State caucus intervenes March 3, the Saturday before “Super Tuesday” March 6, when Santorum and Gingrich could again improve their odds against Romney by a tacit and unofficial division of states. Ohio is another industrial “Rust Belt” state that matches Santorum’s strengths, while Gingrich can count Georgia as his home turf. Of the other Super Tuesday states, Vermont and Massachusetts are practically “gimme” votes for Romney, who will almost surely also defeat Ron Paul in Virginia, where neither Santorum nor Gingrich qualified for the primary ballot. That leaves Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee as possibilities for either Santorum or Gingrich. Would Santorum be willing to cede Tennessee and perhaps also Oklahoma to Gingrich in exchange for a clear shot at Romney in the other states?
Some such arrangement would seem to offer the best hope of stopping Romney, if the conservative rivals Gingrich and Santorum are really serious about stopping Romney at all costs. The two conservatives would have to be willing to postpone until after Super Tuesday a showdown between themselves, knowing that neither of them has a good chance at the nomination unless — by a modicum of tactical cooperation in the near term — they can deliver enough defeats to Romney to stop him from building an insuperable early lead in the delegate count.
This kind of cooperation between two candidates in the GOP nomination contest would be unprecedented, but would simply replicate how the campaign has played out accidentally so far: Santorum upset Romney in Iowa and then, after Romney won New Hampshire, Gingrich won South Carolina, depriving Romney of a snowballing “inevitability” momentum. After two more Romney wins in Florida and Nevada, which threatened another “inevitability” snowball, Santorum came back to score big Tuesday in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. What the Santorum-Gingrich tag-team has so far achieved against Romney in sequential contests, they must now attempt to repeat in simultaneous contests.
Certainly, after Santorum’s impressive victories Tuesday, Gingrich will look silly if he doesn’t cease his oft-repeated arguments that Santorum should drop out and endorse him. And while Santorum now asserts that he is the only conservative choice in the Republican campaign, he doesn’t yet have the financial or organizational resources to match Romney’s powerful machine. The only way either Gingrich or Santorum can realistically keep up the fight against Romney with any hope to prevent him from getting the nomination is to “spread the field,” forcing the Romney campaign to defend against different opponents in different states, at least during the next four weeks.
One final thought: Both Gingrich and Santorum are hostile to Ron Paul’s anti-war libertarian ideology. Yet if they are really serious about stopping Romney, Gingrich and Santorum should tell their supporters in Virginia: “A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for me!”
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Chuck| 2.8.12 @ 7:35AM
Romney is a fast buck artist economically and a social liberal. Criticizing Obama's anti-catholic policies on Monday reveals what a massive hypocrite he really is. Remember Romneycare did the same thing to catholics in Mass. Romney plain and simple is a hard core abortion on demand leftist. Ther is still time to run him out of town.
Worried for the country| 2.8.12 @ 11:20AM
Check you facts. Romneycare did no such thing. In fact, Romney vetoed the bill that forced hospital services but was overridden by the 85% dem legislature.
Romney has strengths and weaknesses but there's no need to spread lies.
Ltw| 2.8.12 @ 9:36PM
Don't you think Romney was aware before he started working on his Mass health care plan that he had a 85% liberal legislature. After all he was in business for a long time.
PCP Smoker| 2.8.12 @ 7:52AM
From the backwoods of the South, we get the advise from a Romney supporter on how Romney can be beat. We don't need you, we don't want you, please go away. We know how to take down a fake conservative. Go back to supporting your man Romney. His jalopy is leaking oil all over the place.
PattyMor| 2.8.12 @ 8:09AM
The truth is that last night was simply horrible for Romney. The man with a big pile o' gold, lost to the sweater vest guy! The support for Romney is just superficial. Really what does he have going for him besides the establishment meme that he can beat Obama. But can he? He's the really rich guy running into the teeth of Obama's tax the rich campaign. He's really a liberal and he passed Romneycare. And he's got that weird religion that is distrusted by many conservative Christians. Obama will use any method and means to destroy him, including his religion.
NVA Patriot| 2.8.12 @ 8:30AM
Already on the Ron Paul deal - you are late to the party - With Mitt at the top of the ticket in VA - turn out will be down.
Barack's campaign is already operating in Prince William County - key county in NVA. This is a hi-population county with demographics Barack can exploit.
The congressional Dems are trying to mess with the congressional re-districting to add a Dem congressional district.
George 'Macaca' Allen is like to be the Senate candidate and has not shown he can carry NVA well enough to overcome the Mitt Drag on the conservative vote.
As for support for Santorum - while governing Santorum is THE WORST - Arlen Specter is the beginning of the conversation; the end is his stunning electoral success in 2006.
As for Newt - I like his enemies and governing record (He cut government) better than I like Santorums's - St. Rick is an establishment person and hack - that's what he was and it's why he got crushed in PA. It's why he'll get crushed in the general as bad as Mitt. In VA the Dems will tie Senator Rick to Senator Allen and ask - "Is this what you want to go back to?" and like it or not it will resonate badly for R's and help depress R and conservative turnout. If they run that play on Newt - the answer is yes - we do want to cut government.
I'll be looking at turn-out numbers today relative to past elections where Santorum won. Lots of amateur political activists are doing this now - that darn Tea thing. Hopefully Santorum deive turnout up. In CO storms may have kept it down. And if it's not up, well, let's just say 'morning in America' is a lot further away than anyone likes. I will note & concede on Santorum: With Mitt at the top of the ticket - O takes VA. With Santorum at the top, 50/50 VA goes O on ground game (Santorum did not even try in VA), Newt at the top - VA goes R by 3%+ and Senator Allen will need to thank Newt.
Dai Alanye | 2.8.12 @ 11:57AM
I've told you before, but you evidently don't pay attention. Here are Santorum's ratings during sixteen years in Congress:-
American Conservative Union -- 88%
National Right to Life Committee -- 100%
Americans for Tax Reform -- 95%
National Tax Limitation Committee -- 92%
U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- 88%
League of Private Property Voters -- 94%
Rick Santorum is the true conservative in this race.
NVA Patriot| 2.8.12 @ 2:50PM
Arlen Specter; No. 3 in leadership & grew government; added a new entitlement program; is for card check
Warm ups warm ups :)
& Newt WHEN IN OFFICE AND IT COUNTED cut government. He challenged a sitting President & John Sunnunnunnuuuunuunuu current romney guy
And when I get to it - I'll look up how Santorum did with the Supreme Court - should be interesting history
...and because I care about results not process - Bill Clinton Helped Gingrich roll back the federal government. Santorum helped Bush enlarge the federal government. Not what we need now. So much for conservative voting records that result in larger more intrusive government.
PCP Smoker| 2.8.12 @ 9:29PM
Don't quit taking welfare. Your political analysis is as good as dog feces.
Michael Bates | 2.8.12 @ 2:19PM
Not Oklahoma for Gingrich! Oklahoma is the only state that guarantees the right to homeschool in its constitution. 2400 homeschool parents and kids descended on the State Capitol yesterday to remind legislators not to mess with a good thing. Oklahoma will pick the homeschool dad over the thrice-married moon man.
Simon Templar| 2.8.12 @ 4:01PM
That was a very insightful and intelligent article.
Ltw| 2.8.12 @ 9:46PM
Santorum has yet to go through the Romney machine. He endorsed Romney in the 2008 primary, which I'm sure is worth a few campaign ads....We'll see.