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The Spectacle Blog
Even if Ross Kaminsky is correct in saying that unemployment is falling despite President Obama’s economic policies there is no question these numbers will help Obama’s re-election prospects. The unemployment rate has fallen five straight months dropping nearly a percentage point. Perception, after all, comprises nine-tenths of reality.
Now, of course, Ross might also be right to say that this pace of improvement in the economy cannot be sustained. In which case, President Obama will find himself in a more vulnerable position and Mitt Romney would be in a much better position to take advantage of the situation. Of course, whether Romney has the political instincts to do so is another matter entirely.
But if the economy more or less stays as it is and people have the sense not only the worst of the recession is over but that things will get better then Obama will be easily re-elected in nine months time.
View all comments (12) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/02/03/the-unemployment-numbers-benef
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Nessus| 2.3.12 @ 12:39PM
Is it a surprise? Of course the federal governmetn can use all kinds of mechanisms to put huge sums of money here or there and stimulate economic growth in isolated areas and thus spur hiring.
Believe me, the unemployment rate will be 7.something on election day.
Casey Abell| 2.3.12 @ 12:50PM
Kinda wish the GOP would nominate Aaron's fave (whoever it may be) so he could lose to Obama. Now if Romney loses, we'll have to put up with years of I-told-you-so from Goldstein and company.
JeffC| 2.3.12 @ 1:01PM
You are right sir that preception is the reality ...
But right now the preception is that things are not getting better ...
The Unemployment rate IS NOT THE PRECEPTION right now ... it is the BS numbers pushed out by the administration ...
look at the right direction / wrong direction poll numbers ...
Drek| 2.3.12 @ 1:35PM
The unemployment numbers are effectively irrelevant anymore.
Since we're going to go with Romney, ------------- we're guaranteed to lose.
The GOP is going to go down hard, to everlasting, ignominious defeat.
The unemployment numbers could be 95%, regardless, we'd lose if we go with Romney.
WL| 2.3.12 @ 1:59PM
Yeah...I believe you are correct...
WL| 2.3.12 @ 2:01PM
Mr. Goldstein...
Why not mention the 1.2 million people who dropped out of the workforce?
Why accept the 8.3% number at all?
Ross Kaminsky | 2.3.12 @ 2:09PM
Aaron, I didn't exactly say the recovery can't be sustained. I said the pace of job growth in future months is, in my opinion, going to be hard to sustain. Just want to be clear that I'm not saying that we're going to start losing jobs on a monthly basis again.
Aaron Goldstein| 2.3.12 @ 4:08PM
I have slightly modified my comments to more accurately represent your position.
PCP Smoker| 2.3.12 @ 8:49PM
No mention at all of the 162K people who left the work force, and are officially excluded from the analysis. No, no mention of that. Just analysis of the liberal reality. Goldstein, wake the f up. Here is the article. Perhaps, you can publicize this. "The January jobs report is out and it seems pretty strong, at least superficially. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent, the lowest rate since February 2009. And the economy added 243,000 jobs, the most since April 2011.
But does anyone believe an “official” unemployment rate of 8.3 percent really gives an accurate picture of the U.S. labor market? Even though the unemployment rate fell, so did the labor force participation rate (as more Americans became discouraged and gave up looking for work). Here’s what that means:
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7 percent then vs. 63.7 percent today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.0 percent.
2. But let’s not go all the way back to January 2009. In January 2011, the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent with a participation rate of 64.2 percent. If that were the participation rate today, the unemployment rate would be 8.9 percent, instead of 8.3 percent. As an analysis from Hamilton Place Strategies concludes, “Most of the shift of the past year is due not to the improvement in the labor market, but the continued drop in participation in the labor force.”
3. Now, to be fair, some of the decline in the participation rate is aging Baby Boomers dropping out of the labor force. But taking that into account still doesn’t get us very far, as HPS notes:
Demographic projections expect that participation rate to be at 65.3 percent. If that full participation rate is the goal, our economy is “missing” 3.8 million workers, up from the 3.4 million we noted in the white paper. The unemployment rate in that context has not budged at 10.4 percent.
4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate is still a sky-high 15.1 percent.
5. If the participation rate does level off at its current rate, according to HPS, the economy would need to generate 231,000 jobs per month to get below 8 percent unemployment by Election Day. If the participation rate continues its downward slide, however, that number would be much lower—perhaps as low as 131,000 jobs a month (see below chart). But such a decline wouldn’t necessarily be good news."
Dai Alanye | 2.4.12 @ 11:32AM
Republicans make a mistake in ever using the unemployment figures except to point out their inutility. Wnat counts is the raw numbers of potential workforce vs workforce employed, a far less sanguine set of figures. Anything else is a potential gift to Obama.
Oldefarte| 2.4.12 @ 12:27PM
Anyone who truly believes that this economy will get better has a few screws loose. The unemployment rate drop has to be viewed in the context of 1.2 million dropping out of the workforce, not looking for work any longer. The real estate market current TANKING status will not improve anytime in the near future, probably five years minimum. Europe is cratering due to historical socialistic governmental policies. Neither businesses or consumers have any confidence in this administration due to its tax/regulation/immigration/healthcare etc policies of business repression-supression. If the Republican nominee polls above Obama heading toward November, look for the financial markets to improve either gradually or explosively. If however the reverse holds true, then expect the economic/financial situation to extremely downturn quickly, as there will be no hope in site for this country!!!!!!!!
youfamissim | 2.6.12 @ 6:01PM
Collectively analyzed, our economy is falling apart. The U-3 report - that was changed when Billy Clinton's tax hike was driving unemployment upwards, is detached from reality. When those who exhaust their benefits - but remain unemployed - are Not Counted; the report is useless and purposely deceptive. Ditto those who resort to part-time employment but need full time. Democrat rely upon collective ignorance to advance their scams. Few will visit the BLS web site and examine the U-6 report. The U-6 does show the horrific unemployment statistics. Only in the Land of Make Believe can 1.2 Million people leave the workforce in January and those charged with writing the U-3 report unemployment dropped the same month. The 99 weeks of unemployment benefits was a calculated scam. Think back to December 2009 - More and more of those who lost their jobs then are now falling off the rolls. Over the next few months as more people exhaust their 99 weeks, unemployment will fall further. Using the U-3 criteria, if everyone in America lost their job, and exhausted their benefits, but remained unemployed, the report would show 100% employment!!! Republican candidates must destroy the myth. Republican legislators must return the unemployed to the BLS roles. I swear Progressives are entrenched everywhere in government and work to deceive 24/7/365. Only by downsizing government can we rid ourselves of these charlatans who seek to destroy our nation.